2017
Why the Eastern Europe is in danger. How Le Pen issue worsened Putin-Hollande relations. What did the State Department communicate via diplomatic channels on the results of Tillerson's Moscow visit. Why Kyiv made an ultimatum to Transnistria. Russian military drills "Zapad-2017": possible threats of occupation of Belarus, Baltic states and Ukraine. Developments in Donbass. And why only the leader of Moldova visited Moscow's 9th of May parade. On this and more – LIGA.net reports.
11.05.2017
WAR
Late night in Moscow, Russian Federation. Two are in the cabinet – a general of the Main intellignece directorate of the Russian Federation (GRU), and a man in his 60s with a good knowledge of Russian. Their conversation is a sincere one: both opponents understand each other well.
- So what are you going to do in Ukraine? The situation is in a dead-end. Hardly will it change this year. How're you going to get out of this all?
- Look, if we see that you're playing your own games, if we see that it doesn't go our way – we deploy all our forces under Russian flags over the border and take positions at the contact line in Donbass. And you won't do anything to us.
- So what are you going to do in Ukraine? The situation is in a dead-end. Hardly will it change this year. How're you going to get out of this all?
- Look, if we see that you're playing your own games, if we see that it doesn't go our way – we deploy all our forces under Russian flags over the border and take positions at the contact line in Donbass. And you won't do anything to us.
"Face of war". The picture is assembled of shells from different spots of the frontline of the Russian-Ukrainian war. "Whatever is reported from the war, and whatever it looks like – it consists of lives of innocent people", - Daria Marchenko, author
Russian-Ukrainian war hits it's third year. Almost 2700 Ukrainian servicemen killed in action, and almost 10 000 wounded. War is a natural choice for the modern Russia. Vladimir Putin comes from the KGB and represents the siloviki clan (informal name for the group of influential figures in charge of Russia's force structures). This frames his mindset and choice of scenarios of action both domestically and internationally. Expert Daniel Treisman once called Russian regime a "silovarkhia" (eng. "Forcearchy") – a system that relies on members of force bloc, who, despite being public servants, are also engaged in business and graft schemes. Russian political expert, Lilia Shevtsova, on contrary, thinks that Putin is just a function of regime in general, which she calls "regime of tymchenkos and rottenbergs" (names of Russia's most influentive oligarchs and friends of Putin).
Who are the decision-makers in the Kremlin, how decisions are being made and who's responsible for which sectors?
There are many big and small clans and groups of influence in Putin's circle, united with one aim: distributing money and resources between key figures. These are the people who discuss and prepare scenarios and ready solutions for the Russian president.
Depending on the direction of actions, different teams of specialists might be involved. Waging the hybrid war against Ukraine falls under a special responsibility of Kremlin's siloviki group. It's generally led by the minister of defense Sergey Shoigu, and includes a staff of secret operations, with the FSB's head Aleksandr Bortnikov in charge, as well as a political department, led by Vladislav Surkov. These groups are the most influential in organizing the agression against Ukraine. Of course, definitions of groups and their leaders are rather arbitrary. What's not arbitrary is: directions of their actions. Except of force structures and polticians, there are also technical, business and financial groups, responsible for providing schemes, money for projects and special operations, and also material provision for the narrow circle of Putin's closest people.
Who are the decision-makers in the Kremlin, how decisions are being made and who's responsible for which sectors?
There are many big and small clans and groups of influence in Putin's circle, united with one aim: distributing money and resources between key figures. These are the people who discuss and prepare scenarios and ready solutions for the Russian president.
Depending on the direction of actions, different teams of specialists might be involved. Waging the hybrid war against Ukraine falls under a special responsibility of Kremlin's siloviki group. It's generally led by the minister of defense Sergey Shoigu, and includes a staff of secret operations, with the FSB's head Aleksandr Bortnikov in charge, as well as a political department, led by Vladislav Surkov. These groups are the most influential in organizing the agression against Ukraine. Of course, definitions of groups and their leaders are rather arbitrary. What's not arbitrary is: directions of their actions. Except of force structures and polticians, there are also technical, business and financial groups, responsible for providing schemes, money for projects and special operations, and also material provision for the narrow circle of Putin's closest people.
Surkov's group of influence is one of the public clans, which competes with siloviki not only in access to big money flows, but also in choosing methods of reaching the objectives: while FSB (Building on Lubianka at photo), chooses terror acts as a method of scaring and thus consolidating the society around Putin, Surkov's group would rather bet on political ties, media, bribing, meddling in elections. Often enough, both groups work in ensemble, if Putin chooses a joint scenario: while Russia's "little green men" occupy Donetsk and Luhansk, the political wing prepares "elections" and "voting" in towns and cities, creates needed "parties", "media" and "politicians". It's also together that these groups "nationalized" the captured enterprises in Donbass and the annexed Crimea – for the benefit of certain Russian oligarchs.
At the end of the day, Kremlin's power vertical is able to create separate shadow empires for the key players domestically, while at the same time acting unitedly on foreign fronts.
In 2017, global political and economic conjuncture doesn't seem to go Russia's way. It pushes Putin into the good old options of rulling the country – actions of fear, explosions in the subway. Meanwhile, key figures around Putin publicly sort things out between themselves: it becomes harder to share resources, which are rapidly contracting under sanctions. Force structures' figures and politicians in Kremlin are in showdowns over Ukraine already far beyond Russian borders. In result, by a strange coincidence, one of the key witnesses, closely tied to siloviki, was recently murdered in Kyiv.
Putin himself, having chosen the Crimean trap consciously, seems to still think that he can get out of it without losing his leg. He is ready to be upping the ante, and going furher forward – in Ukraine, as well as in other countries. The television is on. Decorations already paid for. Opposition crashed. Everything's ready for a new geopolitical show, aimed at further preserving Putin's regime and everyone whom it feeds.
With this in the background, high-ranked officials and diplomats, as well as foreign friends of Ukraine, claim that they recieve signals of a new scenario being prepared to further destabilize the Eastern Europe. This time, it's not only Ukraine which is in focus. Closest neighbours of Russia are in the risk zone as ell: Belarus, Baltic states, Moldova, and also Kazakhstan and Georgia.
This special report of LIGA.net looks into scenarios of military-political developemnts in the post-soviet space. The project is devoted to the Russian-Ukrainian war hitting it's fourth year. It contains a wide range of opinions of dozens of sources – diplomats, members of force structures of Ukraine, National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, General Staff, Security Service of Ukraine, members of the intelligence community of Ukraine.
At the end of the day, Kremlin's power vertical is able to create separate shadow empires for the key players domestically, while at the same time acting unitedly on foreign fronts.
In 2017, global political and economic conjuncture doesn't seem to go Russia's way. It pushes Putin into the good old options of rulling the country – actions of fear, explosions in the subway. Meanwhile, key figures around Putin publicly sort things out between themselves: it becomes harder to share resources, which are rapidly contracting under sanctions. Force structures' figures and politicians in Kremlin are in showdowns over Ukraine already far beyond Russian borders. In result, by a strange coincidence, one of the key witnesses, closely tied to siloviki, was recently murdered in Kyiv.
Putin himself, having chosen the Crimean trap consciously, seems to still think that he can get out of it without losing his leg. He is ready to be upping the ante, and going furher forward – in Ukraine, as well as in other countries. The television is on. Decorations already paid for. Opposition crashed. Everything's ready for a new geopolitical show, aimed at further preserving Putin's regime and everyone whom it feeds.
With this in the background, high-ranked officials and diplomats, as well as foreign friends of Ukraine, claim that they recieve signals of a new scenario being prepared to further destabilize the Eastern Europe. This time, it's not only Ukraine which is in focus. Closest neighbours of Russia are in the risk zone as ell: Belarus, Baltic states, Moldova, and also Kazakhstan and Georgia.
This special report of LIGA.net looks into scenarios of military-political developemnts in the post-soviet space. The project is devoted to the Russian-Ukrainian war hitting it's fourth year. It contains a wide range of opinions of dozens of sources – diplomats, members of force structures of Ukraine, National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, General Staff, Security Service of Ukraine, members of the intelligence community of Ukraine.
UKRAINE
THE WAR TRANSFORMS
THE WAR TRANSFORMS
Dr. Horbulin's warning
The veteran of Ukrainian politics, director of the National institute on Strategic Research, Dr. Vladimir Horbulin is confident that Kremlin broadens the geography of it's hybrid war, transforming it's war with Ukraine into a global conflict.
Dr. Horbulin says that Ukraine's example shows what Europe should expect for itself, if this new reality is not taken seriously by the leaders of the EU immediately, being followed with some tough decisions.
"Agressor laughs at halftones. He only knows the logic of escalation. And he will stop only where he is shot at", - said Dr. Horbulin in Kyiv.
The National Institute on Strategic Research is providing analysis to the Ukraininan commandment and special services on possible scenarios of Russian actions. There is also information that is not unveiled publicly.
Terms of invasion are part of it. Calculated back in 2014, they define how many hours can Kharkiv resist in case Russian aviation is used; how many days can Chernihiv hold off Russian tanks on their way to Kyiv; how many weeks will the active phase of resistance last and how many Ukrainian men could create a backbone of partisan units. Three years later, numbers and terms have substantially changed. And now the Ukrainian Army in a case of a non-nuclear conflict is able to cause a terrible damage to Russian forces. This brings hope that Moscow would rather not choose the scenario of a full-scale war today. However, striking offensives to destroy the most combat-ready brigades of the UAF are still probable.
Dr. Horbulin continues: after three years of war, Kremlin has nonetheless not reached it's main desired objectives in Ukraine. This means that the hybrid war will not end for now – neither tomorrow nor the day after tomorrow. Rather, it will continue.
After the US made a public missile slap in Russia's face in Syria and ignored Russia's opinion on North Korea, Russian leadership seeks for upping the ante on other international arenas, and taking the geopolitical iniative away from Americans. This new step of Russia could take place in Ukraine. Ukrainian diplomats started recieving signals from Moscow on preparation of a radical scenario with a large-scale (under Russian flags) intervention of Russian forces in Donbass with Russian army taking positions on the contact line. The last signal was recieved just few weeks ago, LIGA.net sources say. "Are these Russian threats a bluff or not – hard to say yet", - tells a high-ranking Ukrainian representative in international negotiations.
Interlocutors in Petro Poroshenko's office state that Moscow is considering an option of an official takeover of the non-government controlled Ukrainian territories in Donbass. They say that Russian president's aide Vladislav Surkov, a man providing political support for the occupation, is busy now with preparing mass paid rallies in Moscow to back the idea of official annexation of the now de-facto Russia-occupied territories of Donbass. The idea is to make up a picture of "Russians adress Putin and ask to officially incorporate the seized Ukrainian territories". Simultaneously, Surkov's people will organize so-called "referendums" on "joining" Russia in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Basing on what sources tell to LIGA.net, Russians have already almost finished preparations for holding such "referendums" – one in Luhansk and one in Donetsk. After such "popular vote" is held, Russian forces can openly cross the Ukrainian border and, presumably, reach the contact line, mixing with the hybrid forces which are already there.
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Moscow is not ready for a direct military confrontation with the US in the Middle East, but has to answer somehow after the recent events. And the answer can, probably, come in Ukraine
The seccretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov commented on those threats for LIGA.net. He thinks that Moscow can undertake further agressive actions against Ukraine due to the events in Syria. Mr. Turchynov explains, that Moscow is not ready for a direct military confrontation with the US in the Middle East, but has to answer somehow after the recent events. And this answer can, probably, come in Ukraine.
Mr. Turchynov anyway reminds that the threat of a full-scale offensive under Russian flags exist for more than three years already. "As it was the case three years ago, so it is now that we have to count, first of all, on ourselves. Our task is to be prepared for any scenario and be ready to defend our country from a full-scale agression of Russia", - he says.
Mr. Turchynov anyway reminds that the threat of a full-scale offensive under Russian flags exist for more than three years already. "As it was the case three years ago, so it is now that we have to count, first of all, on ourselves. Our task is to be prepared for any scenario and be ready to defend our country from a full-scale agression of Russia", - he says.
"Russian spring": Moscow's agents are prepared for a fight
Sources in the military-political leadership of Ukraine are becoming more confident that Russians have already decided to bet on further force operations in Ukraine and attempting to carve out more territories. Sources in counter-intelligence confirm this to LIGA.net. They point at a rising activity of Russian agents' networks in Southern and Eastern regions of Ukraine. One more source of danger is the de-facto Russia-occupied Transnistria. Such are the reports that regularly end up on Petro Poroshenko's table.
"Russians are now actively engaged with Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. They will shake those cities, divide people, try to raise tensions. By acting there, Russians try to show that "Novorossiya" project is still alive", - sources in force structures tell.
High-ranking officials in the Administration of the President confirm that results of closed surveys on Southern and Eastern Ukraine look dangerous. "The red belt is red again. The most problematic cities are – Kharkiv and Mykolaiv", - an interlocutor confirms.
Security service of Ukraine representative Oleksandr Tkachuk claims to LIGA.net that Russians use in the Southern and Eastern regions the whole potential of hidden agents and open loyalists – from diversions and terror acts to cyberattacks and supporting fake ideas of local separatist referendums.
Security service of Ukraine in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions now also document facts of working for the Main intelligence directorate of the Russian Federation (GRU) of "separate representatives of some political parties and NGOs". "There is a crazy informational agitation going on by all channels to engage citizens who still sympathise with Russia", - special service members tell.
NSDC secretary Oleksandr Turchynov thinks that first of all Kremlin will try to destabilize the capital of Ukraine. Such attempts mean, Mr. Turchynov says, both organizing of demonstrative terror acts – like the recent murders of Voronenkov (former Duma MP and defector) and Sheremet (journalist killed in a car-bomb exploision last year) – as well as support of radical forces, using some Ukrainian media "to realize propagandist schemes and FSB's informational bombs".
"The main aim for them is to destabilize Kyiv. Concerning Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa and other cities of our country. Attempts to destabilize situation there have not stopped since the first wave of "Russian spring – 2014". However, if they failed to make it in March-April 2014, they will certainly fail now", - states Mr. Turchynov.
Minister of internal affairs Arsen Avakov agrees with Mr. Turchynov. "Are there Russian leverages in Ukraine? I think there are. Do they have a critical influence today? I think, no. Can they gather thousands of people in Kharkiv? Also no. Concerning possible further provocative actions of Moscow, there was an antidote taken in 2014, which is still in place today in Kharkiv. And nothing of a kind that pro-Russian forces did back than can repeat there today", - Mr. Avakov says.
Mr. Avakov names three reasons for Kharkiv's stability. Firstly, he says, "positions of patriotic forces in the city are strong". Secondly, the law enforcement system is ready to meet the challenges. Thirdly, citizens of Kharkiv "are not ready to back another adventure". "Russian regime may try to hold people of Kharkiv in fear with destablization or terror acts, but an ordinary inhabitant of the city understands, where the real threat comes from: Moscow. By threatening ihabitants of Kharkiv, the "Russian world" can only stratregically lose", - Mr. Avakov persuades.
City's problems are systematic, he thinks. "They have to be solved on the level of country in general. A high level of support needed for the Armed Forces, Security Service, Police, National guard, to provide security. If these structures work well – I don't see any chance for pro-Russian forces. There's only one case when problems can emerge – if we start to make silly things ourselves", - the MIA head says.
Talking about certain people in Kharkiv's authorities, who "have to be, but aren't sentenced yet", Avakov says shortly: "They aren't enjailed on only one reason, there's no court decision yet".
City's problems are systematic, he thinks. "They have to be solved on the level of country in general. A high level of support needed for the Armed Forces, Security Service, Police, National guard, to provide security. If these structures work well – I don't see any chance for pro-Russian forces. There's only one case when problems can emerge – if we start to make silly things ourselves", - the MIA head says.
Talking about certain people in Kharkiv's authorities, who "have to be, but aren't sentenced yet", Avakov says shortly: "They aren't enjailed on only one reason, there's no court decision yet".
At the same time, provocations of Russian agents in different cities of Ukraine on 9th of May demonstrated: Moscow-financed separatism again gained strength, it has not vanished anywhere, it didn't bear responsibility and wasn't punished, so it prepares itself for a revanche. Big masses of people, including thugs hired by pro-Russian politicians, are able to provide a substantial cover-up for Russia's secret operations, repeating the scenario of seizure of Slavyansk in 2014. Only in the other cities of Ukraine now.
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General Staff prepares the army for fighting off enemy's landing on Ukraine's Southern shore, as well as shooting down Russian jets with paratroopers
What the military and special services do
Ukraine's General Staff prepares to worst-case scenarios: fighting off attempts of the enemy's airborne troops to land at the shore near Mykolaiv and Odesa, shooting down Russian jets carrying airborne troops.
Simultaneously, special services and the army strengthen positions alongside the non-recognized Transnistria – a de-facto seized and controlled by Russians enclave in the East of Moldova. Sources of LIGA.net say that Ukraine is into negotiations with the special services of other European countries, coordinating with them their work on retaliating the agressor on this and other directions.
"It would be unprofessional of me to disclose details… Let's say, we are ready to face the threats", - SBU representative Oleksandr Tkachuk told LIGA.net.
SBU also informs, that Russians actively use Transnistria for secret military operations against Ukraine. As an example, a fact of transporting explosives by Russian special services from the territory of occupied Transnistria did take place. "A terror act was planned in Khmelnitskiy region", - SBU says.
The head of the General staff of Ukraine, GA Viktor Muzhenko agreed to comment for LIGA.net on different scenarios of Russia's further moves, including possible official invasion and stationing of Russian troops on the contact line in Donbass under Russian flags. Although the head of GS did not disclose details, he pointed out that for such scenario "there are plans of adequate response on our side". He also added, that Russian forces in Donbass can at any moment on Kremlin's command change militants flags for Russian tricolors and strengthen the groupping of Russian forces – this won't come as a surprise for the GS.
Talking about the situation in the Southern Ukraine and possible invasion in the region of Odesa and Mykolaiv, Muzhenko pointed out, that preparations to defending the Southern frontiers of the country are "conducted constantly". "We consider it a possible development. Preparations to neutralize these threats are being done",- he assures.
Talking about the situation in the Southern Ukraine and possible invasion in the region of Odesa and Mykolaiv, Muzhenko pointed out, that preparations to defending the Southern frontiers of the country are "conducted constantly". "We consider it a possible development. Preparations to neutralize these threats are being done",- he assures.
There is also another question being widely discussed at the moment: what's the current capacity of Ukraine's air defense systems? Could, for example, Crimean events repeat, when certain servicemen refused to shoot down Russian military-cargo planes, which were landing in Crimea to deploy occupants? The head of General Staff says: comparing to 2014, the situation has dramatically changed in Ukraine's favor, and the army is completely different today. "Today the AD secures Ukrainian airspace firmly. Although there are certain problems still, and we work to solve them", says Muzhenko.
He also persuades that a much more important task is providing a needed quantity of military technics to the Air-Defense forces, for which the state needs additional financial resources and a broadening of produce potential of the military-defense complex enterprises.
He also persuades that a much more important task is providing a needed quantity of military technics to the Air-Defense forces, for which the state needs additional financial resources and a broadening of produce potential of the military-defense complex enterprises.
Answering the question on whether he sees threat from the Russia-occupied Transnistria, GA Muzhenko points out that the army "is ready to react adequately at any direction" and "is in constant preparation on fulfilling needed tasks".
Furthermore, head of the General Staff adds that Russians become more and more active in the informational war against Ukraine, using "both some domestic agents of influence, including political ones, or those who shape the public opinion, as well as some directly controlled mass media".
Furthermore, head of the General Staff adds that Russians become more and more active in the informational war against Ukraine, using "both some domestic agents of influence, including political ones, or those who shape the public opinion, as well as some directly controlled mass media".
"The enemy's aim is to sow doubt amongst servicemen and commanders on whether they act legitimately, make them doubt in our ability to defeat the agressor. There's a constant disinformation campaign ongoing against the leadereship of the General staff, as well as the generals. These are precise indicators of a psychological warfare operation, which points at preparations of the Kremlin for further aggressive actions and escalation of the conflict", - GA Muzhenko added.
Protests in Russia: will they lead to a revolution?
Meanwhile, Putin is forced, for the first time in many years, to pay attention to domestic problems. Mass demonstrations against corruption shook the whole country. On 12th of June oppositioner Alexey Navalniy calls for a new mass protest. However, on an alternative note, some sources report that Navalniy's demos are nothing more that a controlled movement, organized by one "tower" of Kremlin in it's fight against another one.
LIGA.net asked Andriy Parubiy, Maidan's former commendant, who is currently the head of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, to evaluate protest moods in Russia and Kremlin's reactions. He is sure that the Moscow regime always chooses a well-trusted tactic: creating conflicts abroad to secure itself domestically from protests.
"They free themselves of obligations to deal with economy and problems inside the country, feed people with propaganda, imaginary "NATO agression". But problems keep mounting", - he said.
Mr. Parubiy thinks that sooner or later "centrifugal forces in Russia will start". "We all remember Chechnya. Know about problems with Tatarstan. Later Kuban' will also remind about itself", - he adds.
"They free themselves of obligations to deal with economy and problems inside the country, feed people with propaganda, imaginary "NATO agression". But problems keep mounting", - he said.
Mr. Parubiy thinks that sooner or later "centrifugal forces in Russia will start". "We all remember Chechnya. Know about problems with Tatarstan. Later Kuban' will also remind about itself", - he adds.
NSDC secretary Oleksandr Turchynov also doesn't believe in any liberalization of Russia's regime as a result of mass protests: there is a hard authoritarian power vertical established, headed by Putin. "Concerning Putin's back-vocals in his circle, it was always dominated by members of the force bloc, whose positions in the latest time have only stregthened", - he added.
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Putin is in waiting: "Ah, so you can last another meeting in Minsk? Well-well, we'll see, OK, it's interesting"
Minsk's dead-end
International pressure at Kremlin is one of the main leverages of Ukraine. The sanctions regime, tied to Minsk agreements, continues to paralyze Russia's abilities. However, Russians continue to reject in Minsk any diplomatic and peaceful comrpomise scenarios of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian war. "They don't want to do anything. At all", - one of the members in the Minsk negotiating group admits.
The first vice-speaker of the Ukrainian parliament and Ukraine's representative in Minsk, Iryna Geraschenko explained for LIGA.net Moscow's logic: "Putin bets now – and it looks he really believes in it – on that it will all collapse in Ukraine because of our inner infighting. He waits: "Ah, so you think you can survive one more meeting? Well-well, let's see, ok, it's interesting".
Many Ukrainian politicians during this three years have accused Ukrainian delegation in Minsk in betraying Ukraine's national interests. There were even terms of this "betrayal" named in media. And although there were more than enough reasons for such anxiety, it all remains at the same standstill in Minsk currently.
Geraschenko says that representatives of Russia in Minsk do not posses initiative any more: "They can only block, discredit, they don't want progress on any direction. But the most insolent behaviour there is of those representatives of PDDLO ("particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts" – an official formulation for the non-government controlled areas of Donbass) that Russians bring with them. Moscow's marionettes are absolutely tactless. The only aim in what they do there is to make Ukrainian delegation lose it's patience. Russians themselves try to look, as OSCE, above the conflict. The absurd is obvious to everyone, but the play takes place each time anyway".
Geraschenko says that representatives of Russia in Minsk do not posses initiative any more: "They can only block, discredit, they don't want progress on any direction. But the most insolent behaviour there is of those representatives of PDDLO ("particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts" – an official formulation for the non-government controlled areas of Donbass) that Russians bring with them. Moscow's marionettes are absolutely tactless. The only aim in what they do there is to make Ukrainian delegation lose it's patience. Russians themselves try to look, as OSCE, above the conflict. The absurd is obvious to everyone, but the play takes place each time anyway".
Geraschenko is convinced that the real value of Normandy and Minsk formats for Ukraine is that Russia there is represented as a side of conflict, which is responsible for everything it made in Ukraine: "And we remind about this each time. Although shall we just say word "Russia", those marionettes, whom Russia brings with them, immediately jump up from the chairs and fall into hysteric".
We asked Iryna how many more years will Minsk process last. She raises her hands. "We wouldn't want it to last for years. But this conflict won't be resolved tomorrow, unfortunately", - she admits.
Under the guise of "nationalization"
Russia doesn't plan to withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk. On contrary, it keeps integrating deeper into the region. Raiding and stealing enterprises continues there now, says Geraschenko, - this is what Russians and their appointees in Donbass call "nationalization". "Locals are being robbed and stripped of jobs, grounding is being laid for terible humanitarian problems, threats of technogenic and ecologic catastrophes rise. Occupants destroy infrastructure and opportunities for normal life and work", - vice-speaker of Rada says.
There was only one aim in organizing the so-called "nationalization" in Donbass, sources in President Petro Poroshenko's circle think. They say Putin seeks ways to lessen spenditures for supplying the teroristic enclaves in Donetsk and Luhansk. "Our analysis shows that only in 2016 Russians spent around 2 billion dollars on Donbass. It covers all costs. Their aim now is – if not making this territories self-reliant, than at least lessening the spending for them", - source in the Administration of the President told LIGA.net.
People in the administration are convinced that in result of the "blockade" and further "nationalization", Russians will be able to lessen their spenditures for the war till 1 billion dollars annually – by redistribution of ownership, paying taxes to Russia, redirecting exports from the seized enterprises. On the other hand, almost all the factories seized by Russians in Donbass are direct competitors of the factories already working in Russia. It can't be excluded that for the stolen enterprises the "nationalization" will end up in bancrupcy and turning into piles of scrap metal.
Sources say, that it's the force bloc of Putin's circle that is responsible for the "nationalization" in Donbass, more precisely the orbit of the head of FSB Aleksandr Bortnikov, who's currently under Western sanctions. Subordinates and affiliated force structures members are, by LIGA.net's sources, controlling a special figurehead, Mr. Kurchenko. "Kurchenko himself never existed and does not exist as an independent figure. He is a toy, just as he was before. He is left no choice, so he is being used to create schemes of raw materials supply and supply of ready produce from Donbass to Russia. One of the examples of such control is "Khartsyzsk Pipe Plant", - source in the Presidential administration told.
President's team also explains decision of Russians and their people in the terroristic organizations of DNR and LNR to squeeze out ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov from Donbass and ban him from humanitarian help to civilians in the occupied territory. "Akhmetov was under a direct political pressure from the Kremlin due to his support of political parties in Ukraine. They told him: if you want to pay someone – pay Opposition bloc, or better just stay away from the politics", - a source well aware of the situation told.
Parliament's vice-speaker Iryna Gerashenko thinks that whatever scenario is chosen in Minsk, it is at Russia's benefit – what is going on now in the occupied territories of Donbass - from the point of view of any possible developments. Kremlin creates an enclave, hoping to transfer it into Ukraine - on Russian conditions. This would mean a defeat for Kyiv. But even if Putin chooses the option of an official annexation of these territories – they, by example of Crimea, will be transformed into one big military base.
In negotiations with Russians, Ukrainian delegation in Minsk keeps insisting: without solving the bloc of security and humanitarian problems – there can be no elections, amnesty and in general no discussions about the political bloc. "In all countries which had similar conflicts, amnesty was done when the conflict already turned into the phase of resolution. The other issue with the amnesty – it has to be individual. Until there are no Ukrainian courts in the occupied territories, who will conduct legal rulings and apply amnesty? There will be some another Zakharchenko personally reading out lists? But how does he rely to this?", - Gerashenko says.
Situation in the Normandy format
Ukrainian diplomats are convinced that Russia tries to discredit Normandy format of negotiations. It's subsequent to the fact that Putin is forced to respond in this format to other leaders, including the informal leader of Europe Angela Merkel, on why Russia is not implementing a single item of the Minsk agreements. "It's an inconvinient format for Putin. That's why they have a desire – to discredit, block, make negotiations fruitless. Simultaneously, Russia doesn't implement even the smallest agreed issues – Putin says one thing and acts in a completely different way", - vice-speaker Gerashenko admits.
One of LIGA.net interlocutors amongst international negotiating team told that during one of the latest meetings on the level of political aides of presidents of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, Russian representative Vladislav Surkov was going on once again that Ukraine is a failed state, accusing Ukraine of attacks on Russian banks in Kyiv. However, he couldn't answer the question of Berlin's and Paris' representatives on why Russians don't stop the shelling in Donbass and why Russia does not comply with the Minsk agreements.
During the conversation of leaders of Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia on 18th of April, Mr. Putin and Mr. Hollande had a fierce raw over why Russia publicly and financially supports Marine Le Pen. Putin wanted to hold a meeting of leaders of the Normandy four in Paris days before the elections in France – he hinted at this both via Surkov and personally. Mr. Hollande made it clear that they don't wait in Paris for Putin and there won't be any meeting in France's capital.
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Hollande and Putin had a fierce raw during the conversation. It ended up with the President of France abrupting Putin's plans to travel to Paris to publicly support Le Pen in election
But why Russians needed the Normandy four meeting in Paris, if the Minsk process is in a dead-end? Moreover, why had suddenly Putin, who himself already few times stated that this format is no longer effective, started talking about meeting in Paris? The answer is on the surface: Putin craved for a personal meeting with Marine Le Pen in Paris, to publicly support his appointee to the post of the President of France just before elections or before the second round of them. Hollande oversaw this scenario and did not let it happen, causing an extreme irritation of the Russian president. Sides however decided not to disclose the conflict in their official press-releases on the conversation.
Emmanuel Macron's victory in France's elections is a tough defeat for Putin. Had Le Pen become president, Normandy format would perish, just as the European Union, which Le Pen promised to make "Frexit" to. Now, diplomats convince LIGA.net, the newly elected President of France will continue the tough sanction line against Moscow for it's illegal annexation of Crimea and war in Donbass.
What Tillerson's Moscow visit resulted in
A month ago, minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin visited the USA, where he talked to the leaders of the new administration. Amongst them – state secretary Rex Tillerson. "Minister had a very good conversation with Mr. Tillerson. They sat together, and Mr. Tillerson asked him directly: what do you see in Minsk process currently, what to do and how to proceed? Minister answered to him sincerely: this and that has to be done, in compliance with the agreement, and with an obligatory access to the border. Than the transitory period starts when political issues would become possible", - a source well informed on the mater told LIGA.net.
Ukraine had been earlier proposing to the Trump administration few scenarios of solving the Russian-Ukrainian war. Americans are convinced that the main should be concentrated around Minsk agreements, and all other ideas can only be an addition to it. For Ukraine, in either case, the main aim remains keeping the sanctions against Moscow. At the end of 2017 long-term sanctions will come into effect, the ones imposed on Russia three years ago. Multiple analyses show that exhaustion of reserves and the need for big payments on old debts will force Russian authorities to make even tougher austerity for Russians around the country.
And although there's a conviction in the West that an economic collapse of Russia would bring no good to the region, Kremlin authorities make everything possible so that no one in the European Union even raises the issue of softening the sacntions. Furthermore, with the latest use of chemical weapons in Syria by Putin-backed forces, Russian authorities can actually create new problems for themselves. Russia's stand was also seriously worsened by the explosion of an OSCE patrol in the territories of Donbass occupied by pro-Russian forces, which led to an American citizen killed. So did continuing provocative actions of militants against OSCE.
Just after the incident which killed the American citizen, Petro Poroshenko again discussed with the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson the scenario of deploying peacekeeping forces in Donbass. This time Americans were much more interested in the idea.
Many tied Tillerson's visit to Moscow with Trump's desire to decide Syria's and Ukraine's fates "tete-a-tete". But in the eve of the trip, the US Secretary of State called President Poroshenko, to harmonize positions. The US and Ukraine agreed, that sanctions against Russia should be kept until the full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
LIGA.net's source in the presidential administration also told that just after the Moscow visit, Ukraine was informed on results of negotiations via diplomatic channels. "The meeting was absolutely cold. Each of them played their own games. Topics remained the same: Syria and Ukraine. Also, even before the visit to Moscow, when Tillerson talked to Poroshenko, he decided himself to assure that there will be no "package" decisions with Russia, no package, in which the topic of war in Ukraine could have been exchanged for anything", - LIGA.net source says.
However, all sources with the knowledge of the negotiation process agree, that the President of the USA Donald Trump is still aimed at some kind of deal with Russia. On the other hand, Trump is obviously oriented at delegating the main burden of solving the Russian-Ukrainian war to the chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel. As for now, sides just continue upping the ante. Can't be ruled out, that main events in 2017 will take place in the Eastern Europe.
ON THE WERGE OF AGRESSION
POLAND, BELARUS, MOLDOVA, KAZAKHSTAN, BALTIC STATES
POLAND, BELARUS, MOLDOVA, KAZAKHSTAN, BALTIC STATES
Putin's Kaliningrad corridor
Russia's neighbours should seriously expect possible conflicts in the nearest years. All high-ranking interlocutors in diplomatic circles that LIGA.net asked for a comment, agree with such thesis.
NSDC secretary Oleksandr Turchynov points at public statements by Kremlin's leadership, which claim restoration of Russia in the borders of the ex-USSR as one of its priorities. "This is not being hidden, Russian propaganda follows this objective, all force structures and special services too. But as for the attempt to return Ukraine to it's orbit, Ukraine, which is a "basic element", as Dr. Brzezinsky says, without which the restoration of the Empire is not possible, - this objective of theirs has obviously stuck in the sand", - admits Mr. Turchynov.
Mr. Turchynov says that to reach it's targets, Moscow's regime applies to its neighbours a technology of dragging into and "tough binding to the orbit of their interests". "Here you have meddling in elections, appointments to cabinets, financial and energy (gas, oil) doping, stationing of military bases, creating military quasi-unions ("ODKB" or CSTO – Collective Security Treaty Organisation, formed by Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). And, in case of this states stepping over the flags put around for them, they can launch a scheme on replacing their leadership, in case this seems impossible – banal direct military force", - said the secretary of NSDC to LIGA.net.
Except of this, he reminded, Russia has not halted it's attempts to strengthen influence in Balkans. A telling example is a failed coup attempt in Montenegro.
The Council on National Security reminds, that the aggressive policy of Russia can also be seen in preparing joint military drills of Russia and Belarus called "Zapad 2017", which is aimed to prepare for offensive operations.
The aim of Russian drills – checking readiness of forces to conduct full-scale operations in tough restrictions of time for preparation. "Drills legend also prescribes training to create a Kaliningrad corridor, which is not possible to make in reality without agression against Lithuania and Poland", - the NSDC secretary says.
"The General Staff of the armed Forces of Ukraine monitors preparations to this drills and will take needed strengthening measures of defensability for the state, including in the time of the active phase of "Zapad 2017" drills", - the head of General Staff GA Viktor Muzhenko told LIGA.net.
He says that Ukraine is thoroughly preparing it's actions due to Russian "drills". "We work out plans and scenarios, which concern not only the Armed forces of Ukraine", - he told without disclosing further details. Alongside these measures, the army will conduct a complex of military drills, GA Muzhenko says, which will concern everything from preparing the centers of military command at the operative-strategic level, to preparation of all units, aimed at retaliating possible further Russian agression.
Although Russian military drills are a threat not only to Ukraine. For Europe, worsening of relations with Russia seem to only be starting. Back in 2015, Putin decided to withdraw from the treaty on limiting arms in Europe (TCAFE). Since the same year, Russian regime started creating three new divisions on its Western border – amounting to up to 10 thousand soldiers in each of them. However, the real numbers, by evaluation of specialists, will be much higher. De-facto, these are forces of rapid action, which will be able to conduct offencive operations in the shortest possible terms.
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The grouping which is being created on Russia's Western border now, will be fully operational and ready to invade neighbouring countries till 2020. Judging on the configuration of military units and infrastructure for them, it's invasive depth will be up to 500 km
Basing on the sources of LIGA.net in Ukrainian force bloc, the grouping which is being created on Russia's Western border now, will be fully operational and ready to invade the neighbouring countries till 2020. Judging on the configuration of military units and infrastructure for them, it's invasive depth can be up to 500 km. Except of the Baltics and Belarus, there could be few more options of a further strike on Ukraine: Chernihiv, Kharkiv-Sumy, Donetsk directions. A strike from Crimea is also possible. The aim of a military offensive would not be an occupation, but rather a demolition of the main forces of Ukraine's Army and forcing Ukraine for a capitulation – e.g. peace on agressor's conditions.
The Wall Street Journal suggests too, that during Russian military drills "Zapad-2017" a new crisis can emerge at the borders of the Baltics in September. Russia itself claims that 3000 soldiers will take part. But this is exactly the number that allows Russia to not inform NATO on details of the drills.
The former commander of NATO's joint Armed Forces in Europe Philip M. Breedlove thinks that Russia is lying and in fact around 100 thousand soldiers will be engaged in this military drills. NATO claims that they will be the most scaleous military drills of Russia on it's Western borders so far. Simultaneously with Russian maneuvers, defensive military drills will take place in Sweden, with NATO countries, including the US, taking part.
Security Service of Ukraine confirms, that all neighbours of Russia, except China, cannot feel themselves secure – even those, whom Moscow calls its friends today. "Russia is not only creating and supporting conflicts, it uses them for continuous destabilization of situation, makes everything possible to prevent its neighbours from creating democratic institutions and developing their economies", - says SBU representative Oleksandr Tkachuk.
It's worth pointing out, that all neighbours of Russia, including countries of Moscow's military bloc CSTO, ignored the traditional militarist parade on 9th of May in Moscow. Only president of Moldova Ihor Dodon came, who doesn't hide his close ties to Kremlin. The rest sent their representatives at best. LIGA.net's source amongst Ukrainian diplomats told that after Ihor Dodon came to power, official Kyiv halted almost all contacts to Kishinev – there is no one to talk to any more, and if something has to be decided, it's better to do it via Moscow. Mr. Dodon himself calls Russia the best and only friend.
Even Aleksandr Lukashenko and Nursultan Nazarbaev did not attend Putin's parade. The threat coming from Moscow scares off even the closest allies. After Crimea annexation and Russian-Ukrainian war in Donbass they do not see a reliable partner in Moscow anymore. Even the CSTO, which was planned by Moscow as an alternative to NATO, has lost serious perspective and turned into a bloc for dictatorship-leaning countries.
Threats to Kazakhstan
"They will destroy Kazakhstan after Nursultan Nazarbaev is gone, they will take away virgin soils and tell that it was theirs historically", - high-ranked Ukrainian diplomat aware of the region spoke out sincerely.
The head of Verkhovna Rada Andriy Parubiy, talking about the future of Kazakhstan in connection to possible Russian agression, points out that Kazakhstan probably understands threats coming from Russia, but they already can do very little about it. However, Parubiy says, Nazarbaev "sees and evaluates now, what is awaiting his country in the nearest future".
Kazakhstan authorities are seeking for ways of securing themselves from Russia's influence, while keeping close economic ties both with Russia and China. But the multi-vector policy of Astana, which reminds of Kyiv's policy in the past, could cost it territories in the end.
Belarus at the werge
In the latest two years the president of Belarus has made enough steps to separate his special services and army from Russian ones by adopting new legislature as well as implementing bilateral union agreements in a specific, independent-minded manner. These steps are being felt and evaluated in Moscow. It continues to provide credits and gas discounts – with one hand. The other one prepares a tough scenario of annexion of Belarus.
Basing on information of LIGA.net sources, Russian special services are considerning the option of ousting Aleksandr Lukashenko from his seat. And they, most probably, will not wait till the president of Belarus gains enough independence to slide out of their control.
"On one hand, Lukashenko understood after Russian agression against Ukraine, how swift the attack of Russia can be. Legislature, which Belarus adopted in the latest years show that he understands the threat and tries to secure his country", - speaker of Verkhovna Rada Andriy Parubiy says.
Nevertheless, Parubiy is sure that Lukashenko understands, how defenseless his country can be, if he will be complying with all Russian wishes. "He understands how strongly he relies on Russia. Belarus will step on the European path some day. The European movement of this country is unavoidable", - Rada's speaker thinks.
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Ministry of Defense of Russia announced plans to send in 2017 to Belarus 4162 train cars with military techincs. It's 33 times more than in 2015 and 83 times more than in 2016
Ministry of Defense of Russia announced plans to send in 2017 to Belarus 4162 train cars with military techincs. It's 33 times more than in 2015 and 83 times more than in 2016. Local media compare preparations for the "Zapad-2017" military drills to preparations for a de-facto occupation of Belarus. "De-facto Belarus is already occupied by Russia", - political expert Vitis Jurkonis told latvian media Delfi.
Minister of Defense of Estonia Margus Tsahkna thinks that military drills of Russia "Zapad-2017" is a de-facto beginning of occupation of Belarus. He referred to the intelligence data obtained by Estonia from other countries of the Alliance, which show that Russia aims to leave it's soldiers in Belarus even after the drills end.
"For the Russian military heading to Belarus is a one-way ticket", - head of Defense ministry of Estonia said.
Mr. Lukashenko himself, acting against Moscow's wish, tried to secure himself by inviting NATO observers to the country for the "Zapad-2017" drills. Reportedly, this step has caused fury and anger in Kremlin.
The Baltics
Lithuania's foreign minister Linas Linkevicius claimed in one of his interviews, that the hybrid war of Russia against the Baltics is already ongoing.
"The war is already happening – cyberwar, informational war. The notion of security has itself broadened, because previously security was only percepted as a military one. Consequently, it meant military threats – rockets, tanks; but now you can possibly launch a rocket, it costs money, but you can also launch an informational rocket, maybe twice or three times, better together, but effect can even be bigger", - minister thinks.
Mr. Linkevicius also compared Russian propaganda with an artilleristic preparatory shelling before a combat: "This doesn't have to be done now, one can just brainwash people and create a foothold for actions. This is how it happened, in my deepest conviction, in Crimea", - he said.
Moldova
One of the possible scenarios – an attempt by the new pro-Kremlin president of Moldova Ihor Dodon to integrate pro-Russian Transnistria into the country. If he achieves that, for many years a regime under Moscow control will preserve in this country. "If this scenario fails – they will tear the country apart into pieces", - one of former diplomats well aware of Molodovian affairs told LIGA.net. It will be an attempt to realize in Moldova something that Kremlin fails to achieve for the third year in Ukraine – stick back into the country the enclaves of Donetsk and Luhansk - on Kremlin's conditions. There are no doubts that Dodon will provide Putin any concessions on Transnistria.
For Ukraine, which cooperated closely with Moldova in the latest two years, a scenario of Moldova reuniting on Dodon's plan will mean a rising threat from Transnistria. Russians, who have military contingent in Transnistria already now try to influence from it's territory the processes in Odesa region. Apart of the secret operations, propaganda is being used too. "Broadcadsting towers from there work on our territory, locals are hooked to Russian propaganda", - interlocutors in force structures told LIGA.net.
In case Moldova comes under Russian influence entirely – problems are guaranteed for Ukraine. And for Moldova, uniting with Transnistria that the marionette regime of Dodon may propose, will mean the end to independence.
Member of the Parliament and President's aide Iryna Friz says that presence of Russian forces in Transnistria will not be acceptable for Ukraine in case they lose their peacekeeping functions and trust of the "5+2" group (Moldova, unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic, Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, the EU, the USA).
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Uniting with Transnistria on the scenario of Dodon's marionette regime will mean end of independence for Moldova, and for Ukraine it will mean a rising military threat from the Western direction
Ms. Friz also points out that in the latest three years, territory of Transnistria has turned into a regional center of supply of mercenaries to participate military action in the Eastern Ukraine on the side of Russians, as well as supporting sabotage activity in the South-Western regions of the country by Russian agent-network.
Ms. Friz says that despite continous calls of Ukraine to fully demilitarize Transnistria and change Russian army there for adequate international police contingents under the protection and mandate of the UN, OSCE or the EU, Tiraspol continues to "fool around, pretending it does not understand signals".
There are Russian special services' sabotage centers located on the territory of Transnistria, training bases for Transnistria inhabitants, who are being sent to Donbass than. Taking these actions of the unrecognized Transnistria into concern, Iryna Friz says, Ukraine reserves itself a right to use all non-military steps to minimize threats and risks of using Transnistrian territory for Russian agression in Ukraine and making sabotage.
Ukraine demanded separatists to put an end to sabotage and launch the process of criminal prosecution against the participants of combat action in Donbass, who fought against Ukraine, as soon as possible. As well as to unlock the discussion on replacing Russian troops for an international peacekeeping contingent.
Russian military drills, threat of occupation of Belarus, possible loss of independence in Moldova, hypothetical invasion of Russia into the Baltics and the Russian war against Ukraine are all serious challenges. Relatively small NATO contingents in the region will not be able to affect the situation if it spirals out of control. But there is a plan for action. Secure development of the whole Eastern Europe would be safe not only if the regime in Moscow collapsed, but also if all countries threatened by Russia joined their forces.
A PLAN FOR THE EASTERN EUROPE
IS THERE AN OPTION WITHOUT NATO
IS THERE AN OPTION WITHOUT NATO
Intermarium or Baltic-Black sea Union
Ukrainian force bloc members call their colleagues from friendly countries to not be losing their grip. They are already working to create premises for joining efforts of the Eastern European states. "We are in a constant exchange of information and experience to effectively counter Kremlin's plans", - SBU members admit.
One of the perspective directions for action is creating international brigades by the example of the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian joint brigade. It has finished the process of creation last year and already began to fulfill operational tasks. It's general quantity is 4500 servicemen.
But it's too little to cooperate special forces and form separate relatively small brigades if one aims to win hybrid wars. How a plan for the Eastern Europe might look like?
There is a certain multivector policy remaining in Ukraine. While the President and the Foreign ministry of Ukraine are negotiatiating with the leadership of the European Union and Europe's key political figures, Verkhovna Rada's head Andriy Parubiy is busy with boosting inter-parliamentary cooperation with all countries which could be next on Kremlin's list. Rada's speaker is promoting the idea of the Baltic-Black sea Union (BBU), which politicians of the Eastern Europe have been trying to create since the beginning of the XX century.
"A good example for us is the union of the Northern European states. We could join efforts of states in the Eastern Europe following the same example. I communicate with colleagues in Poland and Lithuania. They see a perspective here. Such union would provide many opportunities", - says Mr. Parubiy.
He adds, that the threat from Russia is well-understood in the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Georgia. Ukraine has proposed the countries which neighbour Russia to coordinate their efforts, so that this threat could be neutralized or at least lowered.
"Ukrainian army becomes stronger by day. We can be an effective military ally, an instrument of security. Furthermore, such union also has a great economic and transit potential. Trade routs pass through our countries. By joining forces we can become much stronger together. We can jointly develop the infrastructure of our region, solve issues of energy security, as well as humanitarian and informational", - Mr. Parubiy says.
However it's too early to name exact terms of such union's creation, the head of Ukrainian parliament adds. "We see now opportunities for uniting on the basis of an inter-parliamentary assembly of our countries. We have to make constant steps, let them be small, but steps to stregthening our unity by joint actions. All engaged members have a very big interest for this project".
An alternative to the Baltic-Black sea Union is the so-called Intermarium project. While the BBU would mean collaboration of Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia anfd Moldova as well as probably other countries of the region (e.g. Belarus – in the future, in case of pro-European transformations), the Intermarium, by plans of its authors, would join much more states.
Initially, the project of Intermarium was put forward by the leader of Poland Jozef Pilsudskiy after the World War I. The confederation should have stretched from the Black and Adriatic seas till the Baltic sea. Back than, Mr. Pilsudskiy envisioned Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and Finland as members of this union.
It's actually due to the size of the proposed union that the idea is taken rather sceptically in Ukraine – the more participants are there, the harder is it to find common point of view.
Both projects are quite cold-heartedly taken in Brussels: this is just another reason for Ukraine's multivector policy of a type, invisible for many observers. For the European Union, a possible collaboration of the Eastern European countries in a kind of a separate force would mean weakening of Germany's and France's positions, a weakening of the center in favour of the Eastern Europe. It's possible, however, that for Russia's neighbours this would be the only direction to follow, if they want to get a right for their own voice and a strong position in the world, where more and more often force is seen as an acceptable argument. Those in doubt should come to Ukraine and see with their own eyes the war, which could have been prevented, if appropriate conclusions on Moscow regime would have been made after 2008, when the Russian-Georgian war happened.
War-fatigue can cause loss of ability to see obvious signals. Time to time the society, and, more importantly, authorities, act as if the scariest is already left behind, and the threat has already vanished. This was just how Europe behaved, observing Germany boosting it's army after the World War I, seeking for revenge. Blindness and deception had led to the greatest tragedy back than, and they can bring to it again. Because war has not ended. In the world's plain sight, revanchist forces in Moscow keep gaining strength and demonstratively preparing their army for invasions, their society – for new wars. It means that for Ukraine and Europe it all just begins.
Text: Petro Shuklinov | Graphic: Yury Davydov | Photo: open sources
© 2017 All Rights Reserved. Information Agency LIGABusinessInform (LIGA.net)
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© 2017 All Rights Reserved. Information Agency LIGABusinessInform (LIGA.net)
[email protected]
