"Fright" of the coming winter: what will affect Ukraine's economy in November

"Triggers" for the hryvnia

In the next two months, the NBU's monetary strategy will at best remain unchanged. It is not known for certain what the consequences of the missile and drone attacks will be and how they will affect the work of major sectors of the economy and society in general, because when the issue of survival is activated, everything else becomes secondary.

In my opinion, if economic circumstances allow the key policy rate to remain at 15.5% by the end of the year, this will be considered an acceptable and even good result. For example, since the end of summer, uncertainty about the future, uncertainty about expectations, and potential risks of losses have been driving businesses to revise prices. That is, it is somewhat true to say that it is not economic circumstances, but rather military risks that are the main motive for changes in price tags, which in some places have increased by 5% in just two or three months, and since the beginning of the year we can talk about a 15-20% increase in prices.

Instead, citizens, intimidated by the unknown future in the "dark," may be more active in buying up foreign currency "for a rainy day" and in looting "strategic" goods and food from stores, accumulating everything they need for possible long-term blackouts.

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