How much did Ukrainians "take out" of Russian refineries and why will Russians drink less?
Last week, the federal government's relevant ministry admitted that the fuel shortage in Russian regions is being managed manually.
Measures are being taken to eliminate the fuel shortage: organizing exports from the Republic of Belarus (if Budanov and Malyuk are allowed to do so), allowing the use of additives previously banned in Russia that are supposed to improve the quality of gasoline, and even attempting to violate the "sacred" for the Russian spirit by allowing the use of ethyl alcohol in the production of gasoline.
The export of fuel from Kazakhstan remains behind the scenes, not much is said about it, but it is happening.
Also, the Council of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has urgently reset the import duty rates on fuel to zero until July 2026. The decision opens up fuel exports to Russia through the EAEU countries. In essence, sanctions circumvention is being prepared.
Fuel market experts in the Russian Federation have been arguing over the accuracy of estimates of the share of production capacity that our UAVs have sent for unscheduled repairs. On the one hand, sales of gasoline on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange fell by only 5%. On the other hand, producers received 30.5 billion rubles from the state under the fuel damper in September, and 80.5 billion rubles in August, a 2.7-fold decrease.
Simple calculations adjusted for the price difference indicate that capacity in September should have fallen by 20% compared to August, which is very good and explains the fuss with urgent decisions on organizing fuel exports to Russia from other countries.
I think we and Ukraine's partners should urgently work with EEU officials and EEU countries on secondary sanctions, as fuel supplies to Russia should be equated with these countries' participation in the war against Ukraine.
In the meantime, I propose a toast: "To the accelerated start of the revolution in Russia".
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