Dnipro is not the goal. We explain why Russia is eager for the Dnipropetrovsk region
Russian propaganda claims that Russian troops have already crossed the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region and presents this as a "success" and a "deepening of the offensive."
Although in reality, the Russians were unable to gain a foothold in the Dnipropetrovsk region, military personnel who maintain defense in this direction and military analysts tell LIGA.net .
"The occupiers enter in small groups, take selfies with geolocation, and declare that they are "already there." But, usually, this is a one-way flight," military analyst Oleksiy Getman tells LIGA.net .
Fighting continues nearby, but the enemy has not crossed the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region, emphasizes LIGA.net , head of the public relations service of the 72nd separate mechanized brigade named after the Black Zaporozhians of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Arseniy Prylipka: "We are doing everything to stop him by all possible and available means."
The Russians' goal is not to invade the Dnipropetrovsk region. Their goal is different.
We explain why the Russians are moving into the Dnipropetrovsk region and what to expect next.
Failure of the western bypass of Pokrovsk
In the Novopavlivske direction, the Russians are conducting an intensive offensive and are seeking to "cut" the Ukrainian defense.
The Novopavlivskyi bridgehead for the enemy is a potential route to the Dnipropetrovsk region. In the event of a breakthrough, the occupiers will have the opportunity to attack rear areas, in particular the logistics hub in Pokrovsk. As a result, strategic communications – the highway and the railway – may find themselves in the zone of shelling and attacks by the Russians.
All Russian forces that previously operated within the conditional Pokrovsky direction have moved here, Viktor Tregubov, spokesman for the operational-strategic grouping of troops "Khortytsia", explains to LIGA.net :
"Therefore, we are recording a decrease in activity in the Pokrovske direction and an increase in the intensity of fighting in Novopavlivske. However, both directions are actually the same area, with a deviation of one kilometer."
There is no border crossing, confirmed LIGA.net by the military who are holding the defense in this area. The enemy has transferred a significant part of its forces from near Pokrovsk closer to the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region and is trying to gain a foothold there, says a fighter with the call sign "Seaman".
"They are trying to enter Pokrovske in the Dnipropetrovsk region and take Pokrovsk in their grip – if, of course, they manage to make a breakthrough. But this is unlikely. The guys are now doing everything possible to prevent the Russians from advancing," the fighter notes.
Dnipropetrovsk region is not a target for the Russians
The enemy does not intend to invade the Dnipropetrovsk region, confirms Viktor Kevlyuk, a military expert at the Center for Defense Strategies, in a comment to LIGA.net : "Attempts to capture Pokrovsk force the enemy to maneuver and operate on the border of the administrative border, using the terrain features to capture or partially surround the city."
According to Tregubov, the occupiers tried to bypass Pokrovsk from the west, but this campaign ended in failure for them – the enemy suffered significant losses, and there was no significant advance.
"Having drawn conclusions, the occupiers reformatted their forces in the summer: they threw some onto the Pokrovsk-Konstantynivka highway – the shortest route to the city, and the rest further west, towards the Pavlovsk direction," explains Tregubov. "In fact, the enemy is trying to attack the Pokrovsk agglomeration from several sides. In response, our Defense Forces are making efforts to ensure that the enemy suffers maximum losses and is unable to advance."
The goal is unchanged – Donetsk region
The enemy's main goal is the complete occupation of the Donetsk region.
"They want to completely control the Donetsk region, so active pressure continues on the eastern front – this is Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kostyantynivka," says Hetman.
According to Kevlyuk, by the end of the year, the occupiers will focus their main efforts on the areas of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovska:
"The Russian group "West" is trying to break through to Liman in order to create conditions for the assault on Sloviansk. At the same time, "South" is unsuccessfully trying to knock out the Defense Forces from the Siversk area," he recounts. "With adjacent flanks, "South" and "Center" are breaking through from the south, from the Toretsk area, to Kostyantynivka. And "Center" continues its very costly battles for Pokrovsk."
Ukrainian defenders hold the lines and force the enemy to pay a high price for every kilometer of advance.