Dogs instead of children. China is on the verge of a demographic catastrophe

China is rapidly falling into a demographic abyss – over the decade, the number of newborns has more than halved, and the country, once with the largest population, is effectively becoming the world leader in the lowest birth rate.Experts compare the situation to the Japanese scenario of prolonged stagnation and question the country's future growth, writes The Financial Times. LIGA.net retells briefly.Croatia's population has decreased in a yearIn 2015, nearly 16.5 million babies were born in China. A decade later, the figure has more than halved to less than 8 million – a stark example of a demographic crisis that will have lasting economic and social consequences for the world's second-largest economy.In 2025, China's population decreased by 3.39 million. This is almost the population of Croatia – 3.8 million."The strikingly low number of newborns means that the total population will decline much faster, and the elderly will outnumber the young more than in recent pessimistic forecasts," says Ernan Cui, a Chinese demography expert at Gavekal Research.The UN's forecast that China's population will shrink from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 1.3 billion by 2050, reaching 633 million by 2100, will have to be "drastically revised" to reflect the "faster deterioration of the birth rate," she says."Thanks to a record-low birth rate, China has become a society with the lowest birth rate among the most populous countries," says Wang Feng, a demography expert on China at the University of California.China's birth rate is 0.98 children per woman, which is significantly lower than the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population (in Ukraine, it is 0.9, as of 2025. – Ed.).The "one-child policy," introduced in 1980, limited most couples to one child until 2016. The restrictions on family size were completely abolished in 2021.More and more Chinese people are not getting married or are postponing marriage. According to official data, in 2023, 30% of 30-year-olds were unmarried, compared to 14.5% in 2013."The decline in the birth rate is due to the fact that fewer and fewer Chinese people are pairing up and forming families much later, when it is more difficult to have children," says Cui.Crisis after crisis: why young people are pessimistic about having childrenAccording to Wang, the economy is prompting young people to "postpone or avoid marriage." While China's export industries impress the world with cheap and advanced AI and electric vehicles, the domestic economy is weak, throwing college graduates into the most challenging job market of the modern era."China has not yet fully recovered from the devastating zero-COVID campaigns, during which many small businesses in the informal sector, which employs most young people, closed down," says Wang.The official unemployment rate for Chinese urban youth aged 16-24 last year ranged from 14.5% to 18.9%, depending on seasonal demand for temporary workers. Experts say the real figures are much higher.The instability caused by a weak labor market is exacerbated by a "housing crisis that is destroying a significant portion of hard-earned wealth and fueling a rise in pessimism among young people."Ma is a 35-year-old video producer from Guangdong."My friends don't want to spend the little money they have on children. If they have a lot of love to give, they're much more willing to share it with a pet," says Ma.China, like other East Asian countries, has patriarchal gender norms regarding women's duties in the family. Chinese women spend 87% more time on unpaid work – cleaning and caregiving – than men, averaging 209 minutes per day.Women perform most of the childcare, and childbirth affects their work and careers, says Ma.Women are becoming more educated than menAt the same time, the average Chinese woman is often significantly more educated than her male counterpart.Since 2009, the number of women has exceeded the number of men in bachelor's and master's programs at Chinese universities. This has created a gender gap between urban and rural areas – women migrate to cities in search of work, while men are more likely to stay in villages.As a result, the birth rate is lowest in villages and industrial provinces, where men predominate.At the same time, megacities like Shanghai (25 million people – Ed.) has the fourth-lowest birth rate per 1,000 people among Chinese provinces, reflecting a higher concentration of well-educated women. This creates another gender imbalance.On average, there are more men than women in China – partly due to the widespread practice of sex-selective abortions during the 40 years of the "one-child" policy (as of 2025, there were 30-35 million more men than women in China). Red.).At the same time, young men often complain that women are too materialistic. This is reinforced by the portrayal of ideal relationships on social media, where the guy generously showers the girl with expensive gifts."I'm tired of dating women who expect their partners to buy them designer handbags and pay for expensive meals, without taking any responsibility for it," says Zhang, a 30-year-old tech worker from Beijing.Echoes of Japan: What's Putting People Off Starting a FamilyThe number of divorces is increasing. In 2013, 2.6% of Chinese people aged 40 were divorced. Ten years later, the figure was 5%.Although the rise in divorce rates is linked to women's greater independence, as they have the financial security to do so, such Chinese women still face stigmatization, and single mothers find it harder to find a partner.Beijing has introduced a series of measures to encourage young people to marry and have children – from subsidies for newborns to extended leave for officials on their honeymoon, and the easing of marriage registration rules.So far, it has had little impact. Cui says that developing a policy to encourage young people to marry has proven more difficult than supporting families to have more children.The decline in births exacerbates China's economic problems, which is suffering from deflation, problems in the real estate market, and low domestic consumption. Some see this as an echo of Japan and warn of a long-term impact on the economy."In Japan, the expectation of an aging population has negatively impacted long-term growth expectations. A negative feedback loop has emerged, where companies and families are holding back on investment and spending in anticipation of ever-lower growth," says Goldman Sachs' chief China economist, Hui Shan.Some people adapt. Ma says that neighbors used to pester her about family plans, but "they don't ask anymore." They stopped when a young mother in their building developed postpartum depression.Zhao Wenjing, a postgraduate student from Beijing in her 30s, says it's "not easy to find a reliable husband": "Social changes are too fast. It's hard to find a suitable partner who shares the same values. Without that, it's even harder to move to the next step – family."Read alsoThe world in 2026: Japan takes over from the US in containing China

Comments