Fedorov's plan for attrition: what prevents Ukraine from neutralizing 50,000 Russians every month

Kyiv's new strategy is to eliminate 50,000 Russian troops each month in order to break the Kremlin's potential and change the course of the war.Analysts believe that the tactic of "exchanging land for time and enemy losses" could force Moscow to the negotiating table. However, its implementation is complicated by a shortage of long-range weapons, the increasing effectiveness of Russian drones, and problems with Ukrainian mobilization, writes Foreign Policy. LIGA.net retells briefly.50,000 Russians per month is a realistic goalMinister of Defense Mykhailo Fedorov has a new strategy to defeat Russia – to destroy more Russian troops than the Kremlin can send.This goal could create tension for Russia and give Ukraine leverage in the peace talks with Russia, in which intermediaries is the USA.In January, Fedorov stated that one of his main strategic goals was to "kill 50,000 Russians every month." This figure exceeds the 30,000-35,000 soldiers Russia recruits each month, says Janis Kluge, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.Ukraine has already made progress – the number of Russian deaths has been increasing monthly in 2025, according to a BBC study of obituaries published in Russian media.The higher mortality rate may be due to Russia using less valuable armored vehicles, which are easily destroyed by drones. Instead, it attacks only with infantry, says Kateryna Stepanenko, a research fellow at the Institute for the Study of War.The increase in deaths is also linked to the Kremlin's pressure on its troops to achieve success, so that to influence on the US and stop supporting Ukraine, Stepanenko adds: "The intensity of Russian attacks remains high because the Kremlin needs to create the impression that it is winning."According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russia's losses amount to 1.2 million killed, wounded, or missing. This is more than the losses of any country after World War II. Despite this, Russia has gained little territory – its advances are less than 100 meters per day, which is slower than some battles of World War I.Will it be possible to force the Kremlin to return to mobilizationAmidst these losses, Russia has to work harder to staff its troops. The Russian army consists of contract soldiers and conscripts who serve for a year and, by law, cannot be sent to Ukraine.After many professional soldiers were killed at the beginning of the invasion, Russia announced a partial mobilization in September 2022. At that time, hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country, including 261,000 men.In response, the Kremlin halted mobilization and switched to recruiting criminals and foreigners, and above all, increased payments for contract soldiers. These can reach tens of thousands of dollars, which is more than many Russians earn in a year.The cost of recruiting such soldiers is increasing, and in some regions, expenses rose by 60-70% last year. Even with this money, the Kremlin relies on increasingly older men – the average age of Russian soldiers killed in 2025 is 46-52 years.Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian side, 160 km of land separates Russia's recent advances near Pokrovsk from the next largest city in the east, Dnipro."If you exchange land for the huge losses of the Russians, you can exchange a lot of territory for a long time," says Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the British Royal United Services Institute.According to him, a higher mortality rate among Russians, along with economic and other forms of pressure, could prompt the Kremlin to negotiate: "It's about changing the trend line in such a way that it changes the Kremlin's perception of their prospects."Kluge says Russia's large-scale efforts to increase the number of contract soldiers to 50,000 or more will create a burden on Russian society and the economy. Most soldiers are poor people, a demographic group that has a limited size. The cost of recruiting these additional forces also puts pressure on the economy, as it requires a significant increase in spending on new contract soldiers.To achieve a significant increase in recruitment, Russian officials may unofficially pressure civilians who would not otherwise serve, causing discontent in Russian society.Ultimately, Russia may be forced to return to mobilization. This could prove catastrophic for the Russian authorities, given the mass exodus of Russians in 2022 in response to the partial mobilization.What is preventing Ukraine from fulfilling Fedorov's planThe Ukrainian plan faces a number of obstacles.First of all, Ukraine has limited capabilities to strike concentrations of Russian troops far behind the front line due to a shortage of long-range ammunition, in particular, a decrease in the number of HIMARS missiles supplied by the United States. Ukraine previously used them to destroy Russian troops in barracks and other locations.Although Ukraine has larger reserves of long-range drones, their operators have been pushed back from the front line after Russia began attacking them, says Watling.This means that the goal of killing 50,000 Russians depends on whether Russia sends 50,000 soldiers to attack beyond the front line. "The Russians are still dictating the level of their losses," says Watling.Russia is also becoming more effective at killing Ukrainian soldiers, partly due to its increased use of drones. The Russian offensive near Pokrovsk in the fall was made possible by UAV operators who attacked Ukrainian drone operators and army logistics, blocking reconnaissance, attacks, and supplies for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.Moscow is working on a significant expansion of drone use. According to the commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi Russia currently has 80,000 soldiers in its UAV units and plans to double that number this year.Secondly, the increase in mortality on the Russian side is happening at an unfortunate time for Ukraine. Kyiv is trying to recruit infantrymen to hold the front. There have been over 100,000 cases of AWOL and desertion in the first seven months of 2025, which is more than in the previous three years.The shortage of Ukrainian troops at the front helped Russia advance towards Pokrovsk in the autumn, and is contributing to the current Russian advance near Huliaipole.As the number of Russians controlling drones from behind the front line increases, Ukraine's ability to achieve its goal of destroying 50,000 per month decreases.Read alsoStarlink verification could become a tool of pressure after the war. How to avoid this

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