Operational crisis. What are the consequences of a Russian breakthrough in the Pokrovske direction?

The situation in the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk sectors has escalated. Fighting in this region is the most intense compared to other areas of the contact line, says LIGA.net lieutenant Colonel Viktor Tregubov, spokesman for the Dnipro Regional Military Unit.

August 11, OSINT project Deepstate said about the occupiers' advance in the northeast of Dobropillia, Donetsk region. The Dnipro group denies this: in this and Pokrovske directions, Russians are indeed infiltrating in small groups through the first line of defense, but there is no question of controlling the territory.

"To stop the advance, we need a mechanized brigade with heavy weapons capable of delivering a single powerful firepower and driving over the top with tracks," says LIGA.net Viktor Kevliuk, expert at the Center for Defense Strategies, said: "It's just a few days. But so far, the situation is not developing in our favor."

The trend is alarming, but the Ukrainian Defense Forces have gone through such trends many times before, they say LIGA.net military personnel from the area.

What does the infiltration of Russians in the Dobropillia area mean, what consequences will it have, and is it possible to improve the situation?

WHAT HAPPENED. According to the Deepstate project, the Russian advance in the northeast of Dobropillia was about 9 kilometers as of August 11.

There, the success of the enemy's 51st army – the Donetsk separatists, the former 1st Army Corps – is emerging, he says LIGA.net "Over the past week, they not only broke through the tactical defense zone of the Dnipro junta, but also advanced about 10 kilometers in the northern direction to Dobropillia."

Russian troops are moving in from the southwest and northeast to cover Pokrovsk, he explains: "There is a clear attempt not only to intercept our logistics communications with FPV drones, but also to physically cut the road by deploying troops there."

The Defense Forces are currently experiencing some logistical difficulties in the Pokrovsk area, according to LIGA.net three soldiers from the area. But, according to them, if "certain measures are taken" and "the work is properly organized," it is possible to move.

The Russians are creating the impression of advancement by using infiltration tactics, denies Viktor Tregubov, spokesman for the Dnipro unit.

However, this impression is false. "The infiltration of such groups, although it necessitates the involvement of reserves to destroy them, is not "taking control of the territory," he quoted LIGA.net the official position of the Dnipro branch of the USPA.

According to the General Staff, the Russians tried to infiltrate in the direction of Zolotyi Kolodyazh, and also penetrated Vesele, Vilne, Rubizhne, and Kucheriv Yar. Some of the groups have already been destroyed, the rest are "in the process of being destroyed."

WHY IT MATTERS. The situation near Dobropillia looks like an operational crisis, says Kevliuk: a breakthrough in the tactical defense zone, the enemy in the interposition space.

The enemy's lack of sufficient armored combat vehicles prevents them from developing success quickly. "They are moving on motorcycles, buggies, ATVs and similar light vehicles," he says. "If they had armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles in sufficient numbers, they would be driving around Dnipropetrovs'k region.

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This crisis can be resolved, adds the retired colonel. The group that broke through in the area of Dobropillia has a rather narrow operational structure: "The Russians were moving along the road, just a little bit to the left, a little bit to the right. It's very similar to what happened in 2022, when the enemy entered the territory of Ukraine in columns."

They are not risking pulling up their rear along this road yet. The occupiers in the frontline units near Dobropillia need ammunition, fuel, food and water. So far, all this is being supplied rather irregularly.

"For a successful advance, it is necessary to have a distance of 10-15 kilometers from the front line to the rear of the brigade," Kevliuk continues. "Now they have to bring in logistics convoys in small batches, which try to break through to the frontline units under our fire, supplying at least something. Given the insane efficiency of the FPV drones available to the defense forces, not everything reaches them."

Every breakthrough needs to be supported by logistics, and the Russians are not very good at it, confirms LIGA.net a serviceman of one of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"In Pokrovsk itself, if there are any Russians left, they are hiding in basements and dying either from wounds or starvation," he says on condition of anonymity. "But the enemy keeps trying to penetrate in the direction of Pokrovsk in small groups. We detect them all and knock them out on the outskirts."

The task of this promotion is political, the president believes Volodymyr Zelenskyy. At a meeting with journalists, where she was present LIGA.nethe's explainedthat it was timed to coincide with the meeting of the US President Donald Trump with the Russian dictator on August 15: "To shape the information space before Putin's meeting with Trump, especially in the American space: that Russia is moving forward, advancing, and Ukraine is losing."

WHAT'S NEXT. To put an end to the operational crisis in the Dobropillia area, the Ukrainian army needs reserves, says Kevliuk: "We need a military unit capable of delivering a powerful blow to drive all those who have gotten there away from Dobropillia once and for all. Even better – to surround them and destroy them. We have such a possibility."

"If we had people and reserves," the soldiers from the area confirm.

The Russians are also aware of this, which is why they are moving additional forces to the Dobropillia area from the nearest directions, the reserve colonel adds.

"The enemy realizes that if they fail to hold on to the lines they have reached, they will be knocked out. That is why they are not maneuvering with reserves, but pulling combat units that were advancing in their own lanes out of combat formation," explains Kevliuk. "Some will stop in the Pokrovske direction, others in Novopavlivske and Toretske. All in order to intensify the advance to Dobropillia. While they are moving there, this is our chance to cut off these "tendrils" [on the map] and put an end to the crisis."

If this fails, the Russians will be able to move further north. This will not only jeopardize the further defense of Dobropillia and Pokrovsk, but will also mean a deep bypass of the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka agglomeration from the south:

If the enemy succeeds near Dobropillia, we will have problems on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Kramatorsk directions. Fighting will begin for Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.

In the General Staff assurehe said that the Defense Forces are taking all necessary measures to detect and destroy enemy groups. By the decision of the Commander-in-Chief, "additional forces and means have been allocated to the military in the Pokrovsk sector." In particular, the first corps of the National Guard "Azov" reportedhe said that his fighters had taken up a defense line there.

The command also emphasizes that Ukrainian units have already detected the enemy and are having their first successes: the occupiers are being destroyed and captured.