Threat from the North. What is known about Russia's offensive on Sumy region
The Russian army in the north is trying to stretch the Ukrainian defense line and secure its own Kursk region. The occupiers are already critically close to Sumy and it seems that over time they will be able to reach the city even with FPV drones.
"They already control part of the Sumy region: they created a buffer zone there, now they are expanding it. There are battles in the tactical zone, in the area from Kostyantynivka to Sadkiv," said Kostyantyn Mashovets, coordinator of the "Information Resistance" group, to LIGA.net.
There is information about the transfer of Russian units from Kherson and Zaporizhia regions to this area. In this scenario, Russian troops could arrive at positions in the Sumy direction in a week or a half.
What is happening in the Sumy direction and is this really an "offensive on Kyiv" – briefly.
What is happening in the Sumy direction?
The Russians have already occupied up to ten settlements in the Sumy region. According to DeepState maps, Kindrativka and Oleksiivka have moved to the red zone. The next target of the occupiers is the village of Khotyn. According to Mashovets, the Russians "are waging stubborn offensive battles – each settlement is not easy for them, they are suffering heavy losses."
The buffer zone in the Sumy region is, in essence, the area that the Ukrainian side will allow the Russian command to capture and keep under its control, says Pavlo Narozhnyi, a military expert and founder of the Charitable Mail NGO.
All these settlements, which are currently under the so-called "control" of the Russians, have actually long been turned into ruins, as a result of artillery shelling back in 2023-2024. The defense of border villages made no strategic sense, – Narozhnyi says in a comment to LIGA.net .
According to him, we are talking about Kostyantynivka, Basivka, Yablunivka, although the latter still retained a certain integrity: "Now the occupiers' main target is Yunakivka, a large village with a customs point, access to the border, and administrative infrastructure."
Distance to Sumy and the threat of increased shelling
Yunakivka is strategically important for the enemy, explains Narozhnyi. This settlement is located on the Sumy-Sudzha highway, through which supplies are supplied to the Ukrainian bridgehead in Kursk: "That's why they want to reach Yunakivka and establish themselves there."
Although in reality it is not so much about a bridgehead as about a small number of Ukrainian fighters in Kursk, says Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center, to LIGA.net : "These are rather limited areas that are not under full control of Ukraine, but in a gray zone. They are used mostly for harassing fire and distracting Russian forces – to disperse the defense and complicate the response."
For months, Russia has been amassing troops to push the Defense Forces out of Kursk. Analysts estimate that the Russian forces in this area now number between 50,000 and 55,000.
So, now the Russians will "try their best" to capture Yunakivka in order to advance further to Sadky, occupy Khotin, Pysarivka, Korchakivka, and Mala Korchakivka, military observer Denys Popovych tells LIGA.net : "This is necessary in order to seize the heights around Sumy and thus create a buffer zone."
The Russians have already advanced about 20 km to Sumy, so over time the city may be under threat of FPV drone strikes as soon as the crews arrive there.
Control over the heights will allow the enemy to shell Sumy with artillery and FPV drones, – says Popovych. – Apparently, this does not involve an assault on the city of Sumy directly.
Despite counterattacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Yablunivka area, the Russians "are making progress, having captured a dozen settlements," notes a military observer.
According to the head of the Sumy OVA, Oleg Hryhorov, 213 settlements are subject to evacuation in the Sumy region, "these are 18 front-line communities – four districts."
Since the beginning of June, 900 civilians have already been evacuated from the region, including almost 120 children, he said: "There has been no increase in applications for evacuation from frontline zones, they are within 20-25 people. But the region is ready for an increase in applications."
The regional authorities do not yet see any reason to evacuate from Sumy itself. Despite the proximity to the city, "FPV drones, fortunately, do not fly there," says Grigorov.
"Quiet Order": What's Next?
The hottest area on the front remains Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region. The second most active, Narozhnyi predicts, "is probably Yunakivka."
According to him, information is coming in about the transfer of Russian units from the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions to this area: "If these movements have already begun, then the Russian troops can arrive at the front line in approximately a week or a half – taking into account the time for transfer, deployment, and combat coordination."
The enemy is currently making tactical gains, but they have failed to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kursk region. "Whether they will be able to break through our defenses is questionable," Narozhnyi comments. "The fiercest fighting will probably break out. If the enemy tries to enter Yunakivka, it will cost them significant losses – both in manpower and equipment."
Military observer Denis Popovych also refrains from making predictions. "This waltz is danced by two. The enemy's advance depends on our counterattacks," he says.
A scenario in which the enemy manages to break through the defenses and capture Yunakivka and Khotyn will undermine the logistics of the Defense Forces. And, most likely, the Russians will advance further – to Sumy.
Military analysts are convinced that the statements of some Ukrainian politicians that the new offensive of the Russian army will not be directed towards Sumy, but towards Kyiv (after all, the "front is already 300 km" from the capital) have no factual basis.
Although the pace of advance increased in May, on average it remains at the level of November last year, – Melnyk notes. – If we evaluate it mathematically, at such a pace, even to completely capture the Donetsk region, the Russians will need several years. And to reach the left bank of the Dnieper and directly to Kyiv – a decade.
On the evening of June 12, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian defenders were "little by little pushing back" Russian forces in the Sumy region.
The military, who defend Ukraine in the north, refrain from commenting: an order of silence is in effect. The LIGA.net editorial office sent an official request regarding the situation in the Sumy direction to the General Staff of the Armed Forces. At the time of publication of the material, no response had been received, but we will publish it as soon as we receive it.