After Trump's statements: Is the glass half full or half empty?
What set of quick and effective measures was available?
The fastest possible introduction of secondary "stopping" sanctions (500% of tariffs, which have now turned into more realistic 100%) – not applied.
Transfer of Russian frozen assets to Ukraine – not applicable.
The $300 million package under the PDA mechanism (i.e., from the US President's immediate decision and rapid delivery) has not been applied.
Multiplication of the planned military assistance to Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) in the draft US military budget for fiscal years 2025-2026 (currently, the figures are up to $500 million) – not applied.
Immediate introduction of a new package of personal sanctions by the decision of the US President – not applied.
A strong statement that "time is running out – the US Administration is changing its attitude: no longer mediating, but taking the side of Ukraine" has been partially implemented.
Sale of arms to third countries (or a coalition of countries) with permission to supply them to Ukraine – largely implemented.
It is stated that the types of weapons are not yet known (except for the discussion of the number of missile defense systems and their ammunition). The issue of long-range missiles (JASSM-ER type) is not publicly discussed.
Conclusion: the Russians have almost two more months (as Putin asked for) to seize more Ukrainian territory. The financing of the war will also continue, and there will be no stopping sanctions for at least another 50 days (which means several months, even if they are introduced by Congress and signed by the president, which is unlikely). The bad thing is that, apparently, the Russians also knew about this in advance .
On the positive side:
The U.S. administration wants to position itself as neutral, but America is "not out of the game." Now they will act mainly through a coalition of European countries and Canada (the position of other partner countries of Ukraine on the purchase of weapons for Ukraine needs to be clarified).
The purchased weapons may include those not currently produced in Europe and longer-range air-to-ground cruise missiles.
The US strategic signal has been confirmed: Russian plans to control Ukraine will not be realized.
Let's just say that the decisions for the next two months do not change much, and then there is still a window of opportunity to get out of a large-scale war without Ukraine's surrender, and the likelihood of using it is even increasing.
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