Even worse monsters will come out of this Pandora's box: what to do and how not to lose the country

Ukraine continues to debate the consequences of what may be the largest corruption scandal in its history – a scandal that erupted in the midst of a long and brutal war. Given the public importance of the topic, we are publishing Valeriy Pekar's opinion without cuts – as an exception to our editorial rules.

Let's try to look at the biggest corruption scandal from a broader perspective, not excluding the role of "devil's advocate." After all, this Pandora's box has only just begun to open, and even more amazing monsters will soon crawl out of it.

Those who say that nothing has been proven are right, and we have a classic situation of leaking operational information for the sake of emotional outburst of the general public, which aims to shape public opinion before the judicial assessment of evidence and undermines the presumption of innocence.

Those who justify the NABU and SAPO law enforcement officers are also right: accustomed to strong political opposition to investigations (and in the case of the president's personal friends, the opposition will be fierce), they are trying to publicly prevent attempts to hush up the case and disrupt the investigation, as has happened many times before.

At the same time, those who say that such cases have already happened are also right: they drag on for years in courts and then fall apart due to a lack of evidence (and often the corpus delicti). After all, everyone remembers the well-known cases of reformers who were reprimanded without any grounds, ruining people's lives for decades and turning thousands of decent people away from public service.

At the same time, those who say that the NABU and the SAPO must earn back the credit of public trust granted in the summer, when tens of thousands of people, mostly young people, across the country came out to preserve their independence, are also right .

The ability to counteract large-scale corruption is a direct consequence of the Cardboard Maidan, otherwise we would never have learned about how the country is being robbed during the war for survival.

Those who say that the dosed release of information and advance warning of the defendants in the case so that they have time to leave does not honor law enforcement officers are also right .

Those who say that corruption has been unfolding before our eyes for many years are also right. Personally, I was not at all shocked by what I saw: the media had been discussing corruption schemes in the energy sector for months, and the thieves were still confident of their impunity (the presence of a political "roof").

What kind of dosed information can we talk about when the whole "scheme" was publicly disclosed six months ago? Just think of the shameful story of the Bulgarian nuclear reactors, which teeters somewhere on the edge of super-corruption and treason. All this was happening before our eyes.

And that's just the beginning, because now the data on corruption (and treason) in arms procurement will come out. And half of the government, including your favorites, will be in the dock. What is this if not a Moscow special operation? Or is it a fight against corruption? Or both in one bottle?

Those who say that corruption in wartime is always a form of treason (as in this case, the line goes back to Moscow) are also right. The Russians do not need to recruit and buy Ukrainian officials – instead, they use reflexive management to make sure that corrupt officials fall into a prepared trap. One crime leads to another, bigger one.

Those who say that Russian agents have been openly working in the government, parliament, and the Presidential Office for years are also right. People who are directly dependent on Moscow make key decisions. Much has been written publicly about their Russian connections, and they are still there.

Now let's move to an even broader context.

Those who say that the political crisis will weaken Ukraine tremendously are also right. We have a huge scandal of corruption and high treason in the immediate environment of the President of Ukraine. And the timing is very unfavorable: the situation at the front is critical, Russia is preparing for its last attempt to break through, and if it fails, it may resort to mass mobilization in the spring; the society is exhausted and emotionally burnt out, and the dark and cold winter is beginning; and the budget has not been approved, and there is nowhere to get the money, Ukraine risks finding itself with an unclosed hole in the budget for the first time since the great war.

The IMF mission is about to begin, and discussions about the fate of frozen Russian assets are unfolding, so the timing is really very unfavorable.

Those who say that this is the most unfavorable time for a corruption scandal are also right, but when will it be more favorable? In a few months, the depletion of the front and rear will deepen, and the financial crisis will also deepen, so the effect of bad news would be even worse. There is no good time for such scandals.

Those who say that making Ukraine's president a "lame duck" is part of a plan to impose unacceptable terms of a "rotten deal" on Ukraine are also right: without support either at home or in the international community, Ukraine's president will not be able to effectively resist Western (primarily American) pressure.

Those who say that powerful forces in the West are now interested not only in forcing Ukraine into an unprofitable and unacceptable peace, but also in disrupting Ukraine's weapons (primarily missile) programs are also right. Ukraine has begun to look too strong in terms of military innovation, which frightens Western politicians and causes dissatisfaction among Western arms manufacturers.

Those who say that the monopolization of certain key industries is essentially a Russian special operation to reduce Ukraine's resilience are also right, and corruption is a bonus. The same can be said about the influence of those involved in the investigation on the appointment of government officials (and even on the structure of the government itself – remember, I criticized the idiotic merger of ministries, and now we know who made it happen), because reducing Ukraine's capacity is the goal here, and corruption is a bonus.

Those who say that all the leaders of the upcoming presidential race are being simultaneously attacked in order to undermine the post-war political process and finally return Ukraine to the stables of the Russian world are also right .

If you've read this far, it's time to take a breath.

We have tried to look at the situation in its complexity, multilayeredness and multidimensionality. This is what real life looks like, unlike glossy pictures.

The ability to live in this world and not collapse from its complexity is a key skill of our time.

Why did I write all this? To prove that only extraordinary measures will save you in an emergency.

What to do now?

We have a classic lose-lose situation. We were taught to always try to find a win-win (a game with a positive sum) to avoid a win-lose (a game with a zero sum). But in the current case, even this is not available to us. No matter what we do, it will be worse .

By stigmatizing corruption, are we playing into the hands of the Russians? Undoubtedly.

By stigmatizing corruption, do we give the West a tool to put pressure on Ukraine? Undoubtedly.

Conversely, by tolerating corruption, we are also playing into the hands of the Russians and Western "peacekeepers." Only more.

We got here ourselves, we walked into this trap ourselves.

The only way out of this trap is through the truth, not lies.

Through openness, not silence. Through democracy, not autocracy.Through horizontals, not verticals.

Breaking the glass walls of lies and risking cutting yourself on the shards is better than letting those walls of lies crush you.

If you are playing a lose-lose game, there is only one strategy – to leave the game as early as possible. Before the losses accumulate.

Exacerbation of the disease is the first step to cure.

I will draw a parallel with the fall of 2013. The Revolution of Dignity plunged the country into a deep political crisis that opened the gates to Russian aggression. The annexation of Crimea and all subsequent events were based by Russia on this crisis .

But the Russian aggression, as we understand it, would have happened anyway. It was caused by Russia's unwillingness to accept the existence of Ukraine as an independent state that has chosen the European course. And we are well aware that without the flame of the Revolution of Dignity, society would not have formed the forces that gave the first rebuff to Russian aggression during the ATO.

Similarly, Ukraine would have no prospects if, instead of direct aggression, Russia resorted to the method of "cooking a frog over a slow fire," flooding Ukraine with money, culture, and agents. The example of Belarus is before our eyes.

From this point of view, the sooner the escalation occurs, the better.

It happened.

Now let's look at the roots of evil to find a way to solve the problems.

The first root of evil is the excessive monopolization of power, which is not justified even in times of war. Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely. "Dear friends" have buried more than one president.

The second root of evil is the lack of political process and media freedom. This is necessary even in times of war. Yes, it will look like a permanent political scandal, which is tiring and exhausting. But such a permanent scandal is better than an accumulation and an explosion. Because an explosion can tear apart.

The third root of evil is the concentration of power over law enforcement agencies. Yes, otherwise we will have shameful political games involving law enforcement, but it is better than what we have now, when all the levers are in one hand. In other words, democracy looks terrible, but everything else is worse, much worse .

The fourth root of evil is the silence of high-ranking officials. One cannot tolerate obvious evil, such as corruption in blood, by justifying one's silence by saying that one can do good deeds for the good of the country. This is exactly what many government officials and members of parliament are doing. I have warned many of you personally and repeatedly. If you do not hear now, it will get worse .

The fifth root of evil is the silence of society. It's scary to think what would have happened if it hadn't been for the Cardboard Maidan. As I wrote, most likely, the European Union would have concluded that Ukraine had deliberately abandoned European integration and changed its geopolitical course. With all the consequences, up to an imminent military defeat due to lack of European support.

The sixth root of evil is the lack of reforms. The reboot of law enforcement agencies has been blocked for years, as well as the reboot of customs and other important institutions.

The seventh root of evil is the formation of the government from loyalists rather than professionals. The professional are judged, the loyal are given the opportunity to escape. The professional can prevent problems, while the loyal will remain silent even when they see a problem and have the ability and authority to solve it in time.

What to do now?

The government still underestimates the scale of the problem and is trying to put the brakes on it. This is a mistake. As I said, Pandora's box is open, and even worse monsters will crawl out of it. We will be shocked not only by large-scale corruption in areas where we have known about this corruption in detail for years, but also by high treason at the highest levels, where dossiers on traitors have been openly published in the media for years.

We knew everything. Why are we shocked? It has accumulated and burst through. It would have been better to do it earlier. What to do?

I argue that only radical action will save us. Indecisive and half-hearted measures will only allow the energy of the explosion to accumulate, not to mention silence and disassociation. The enemies will take advantage of our every delay and hesitation .

1. I have repeatedly written that the key to solving almost all of the country's problems is a public commitment by the president not to run for a second term. This will allow him to start the necessary changes in the country and go down in history as a winner and a reformer. He will not win the election with this burden anyway. It is better not to go down in infamy .

2. The key to resolving any political crisis is the parliament. It was the parliament that saved Ukraine in all political crises in its recent history. Today, we have neither a single-party majority nor a parliamentary coalition. This deprives Ukraine of the tools to overcome the crisis. We need a coalition now .

3. A government of national salvation. I have written repeatedly that I do not believe in a government of national unity, where different political forces work together, in a time of such crisis. The government should consist of independent professionals without political ambitions. There are such people, but they will not join the government because there is no trust and there are unfair accusations. Only the fulfillment of the first two points, together with a reputable non-political prime minister, will convince them to lay down their lives on the altar of freedom – as the defenders of Ukraine do every day.

4. The resignation of the ministers involved in the investigations is mandatory and immediate. Those who will appear on the tapes to be released in the near future should resign now themselves. The resignation of the Energoatom board and an internal audit are immediate tasks. The attempt to shift responsibility to the incapacitated supervisory board looks ridiculous.

5. The resignation of the government before the formation of a parliamentary coalition does not solve anything, but only exacerbates the problems. There will be no new government, but acting governors from the old government. This weakens public administration.

6. Immediately unblock open competitions for heads of law enforcement agencies, which have been blocked for many years.

7. Immediately cleanse the government of open Russian agents (all the names are known). These people can be useful as specialists, which is why they were hired. But the damage is much greater. They are not working for Ukraine.

8. Open and balanced public communication. Experts have already given a lot of advice, but so far everything is being done the other way around.

None of this will be done. Therefore, everything will be even worse until the above treatment begins.

If we do nothing, we can lose the country.

And this is no longer a joke. Putin's best dreams are now coming true. So let's not give him a victory. At least out of respect for the sacrifices already made .

Original