Political consequences of Yermak's resignation
Andriy Yermak's resignation from the post of Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, which occurred on November 28, was not just a major political earthquake. In essence, it was a mini-revolution for both the system of public administration that has developed during Volodymyr Zelenskyy's presidency and for the political processes in Ukraine.
This resignation will most likely reduce (at least partially) the personal influence of the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine on the system of power in our country. The fact is that Yermak often used manual control mechanisms that were personally tied to him. To a large extent, it was a personalized system of administration.
In addition, he had a very close, trusting relationship with President Zelenskyy. Whoever becomes the new head of the President's Office will not have such a special personal relationship with Zelenskyy and will not be able to use the same methods of influence as Yermak. Accordingly, the personal influence of the new head of the President's Office of Ukraine on the system of public administration will be noticeably less.
However, President Zelenskyy's influence on the government, law enforcement agencies, and local state administrations will largely remain. It will be more difficult to influence the Verkhovna Rada, where the single-party parliamentary majority represented by the presidential party may cease to exist.
However, the crisis processes in the presidential faction in parliament began even earlier. Yermak's resignation will only intensify and accelerate them.
Significant changes may occur in the information environment. This applies to the future of the national telethon and, in particular, the network of Telegram channels that was associated with Yermak.
The resignation will have a paradoxical effect. It will weaken the system of manual administrative control by the President's Office. But it can also relatively stabilize the political situation in the country, as it will relieve excessive political tension associated with the very negative attitude towards Yermak among many Ukrainian politicians and a significant part of civil society.
The resignation will likely have a positive impact on relations with European and American partners. Europeans have long been asking President Zelenskyy for it. The corruption scandal only intensified these demands.
Americans (under both Biden and Trump) also didn't particularly like Yermak, including as a negotiator. According to various sources, Americans allegedly disliked his level of English, his inflexibility, his monopolistic influence over Zelenskyy, and his restriction of access to the President of Ukraine. However, I should note that Americans had no political complaints about Yermak, including his negotiating position. They disliked his manner and peculiarities of political behavior.
The resignation will not weaken Ukraine's negotiating position; it may even strengthen it. Ukraine's negotiating position was determined not by Yermak, but by President Zelenskyy. And this position was formed collectively, not unilaterally.
Unlike in the negotiation process, Zelenskyy does not have a ready-made candidate to replace him in the President's Office. Various names are being mentioned now, but there is no clear favorite.
The choice of Yermak's successor will not significantly affect the political situation. The figure of the new head of the Office of the President of Ukraine should rather reassure society, show that this person will not be a "new Yermak", i.e., an all-powerful second leader of Ukraine.
In opposition circles, there are supporters of an almost conspiratorial version – that Yermak is only formally leaving, and in reality, he will remain behind the scenes and continue to manage the President's Office, only unofficially. However, given Andriy Yermak's irritated comment about his resignation to the New York Post, as well as information from some media outlets about how Yermak perceived his resignation, this version now seems unconvincing.
Yermak may maintain good personal relations with President Zelenskyy, and may even act as his unofficial and informal (perhaps even secret) advisor. But if his possible influence on the decisions and actions of the President of Ukraine becomes known, it will cause a lot of criticism and even accusations against Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Andriy Yermak's political influence was based solely on his position as head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, as well as his close and trusting relationship with President Zelenskyy. Yermak had no other instruments of political influence.
He could partially retain his influence if his protégé were appointed as the new head of the President's Office. But for now, such an option seems unlikely.
Given that Andriy Yermak has now lost his pivotal position and, likely, the opportunity for regular contact with President Zelenskyy, and will also be the subject of an anti-corruption investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, his political influence will most likely be minimal (and only if he occasionally communicates with Zelenskyy or maintains contacts with some influential people in power).
In any case, political life in Ukraine is beginning without Yermak. We will see what it will be like in the near future.
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