The Climax and Crisis of the Negotiating Process for Ending the Russian-Ukrainian War
The high-level talks between the US and Ukraine in Florida on Sunday, December 28, and Russia's reaction to them on Monday, December 29, marked both the culmination and the crisis of the negotiation process to end the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump and Zelenskyy went into talks in Florida with different goals. On the surface, it looked like the finalization of an agreed-upon joint US-Ukrainian peace plan.
However, it seems that the US President wanted to pressure his Ukrainian counterpart into making unilateral concessions to Russia in order to achieve a quick peace in Ukraine. Zelenskyy, on the other hand, sought to convince Trump of his constructive approach and readiness for flexible compromises regarding Donbas on American terms, but in such a way that Russia would also agree to compromises (a 60-day truce before a referendum on a framework peace agreement; mutual withdrawal of Russian and Ukrainian troops in Donbas).
And if Russia does not agree, then convince Trump that it is Russia that does not want to end the war in Ukraine and that the Kremlin should be pressured.
But things didn't turn out as expected, and on the other hand, it was almost according to the usual scenario. Before Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy, Putin had a phone conversation with the US president (almost like in October), and it seems that once again, he managed to at least partially brainwash Trump. It is quite likely that the tandem of Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev was also at work in organizing the phone conversation between Trump and Putin.
However, Trump did not put pressure on Zelenskyy as the Kremlin wanted, although he showered Putin with compliments. It looked especially disgusting when Trump spoke about Putin's "generosity" towards Ukraine and how the Russian dictator wants Ukraine to succeed after the war.
Every day, we see and feel Putin's "generosity" in missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, on civilians, and on energy facilities, as a result of which Ukrainians are deprived of heating and electricity – all in the freezing winter.
The Russian cockroaches in Trump's head were once again celebrating a tactical victory. However, Trump did not play entirely in Russia's interests. Trump did not agree to Ukrainian compromises (although they were almost according to the American scenario), but he also did not pressure Zelenskyy to fulfill Russian ultimatums.
In other words, according to our terminology and from the perspective of our interests, there was neither a betrayal nor a victory (at least in the diplomatic sense and from the perspective of Zelenskyy's interests). What many commentators (including the author of these lines) had warned about became obvious: the negotiation process is gradually reaching a dead end.
However, this was not enough for the Kremlin. The stakes had to be raised. And so the story of a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence in Valdai appeared.
I won't judge what really happened there. I'll just note that Ukrainian drone attacks have repeatedly targeted Moscow and areas near various heavily guarded Putin residences. And this didn't cause much of a stir in Russia. But this time, everything was different. A conspiratorial and dramatic story was needed about insidious Ukrainians aggressively attacking Putin's "home" (in Trump's words). Although, in reality, Putin doesn't visit there often.
It is obvious that the "attack on Putin's residence" is a Russian information and psychological operation (IPSO) aimed personally at President Trump and at disrupting the negotiation process for forming a joint US-Ukrainian peace plan. It is very telling that the Russian Federation reported this "attack" with a significant delay and only after information about the second phone conversation between Trump and Putin.
Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov has already stated that this is a significant change in Russia's negotiating position. I would like to note that this is not the first time this has happened. As soon as Trump's position on Putin and Russia becomes soft and friendly, Russia immediately intensifies its demands and ultimatums to Ukraine.
But the Kremlin also seemed very concerned that the negotiation process between Ukraine and the US had progressed too far, so it had to be disrupted. That is why this Russian information and psychological operation about the attack by Ukrainians on Putin's alleged "home" took place.
Unfortunately, all these Russian accusations confirmed the assumption that Russia does not want to end the war, but to escalate it. Some kind of crisis in the negotiation process was bound to happen. The war is going on not only on the front, but also on the diplomatic track and in the information sphere.
Comments