The mysticism of November: a month of major crises in Ukrainian politics
The NABU's large-scale anti-corruption investigation into corruption in the energy sector has provoked a huge corruption and political scandal. People who remember the various events of our modern political history began to recall that we have had crises in November before (in Russia, August has a similar reputation).
Is it really so or just seems so? To answer this question, let me simply recall some of the political events that have occurred in Ukraine (or around Ukraine) in November over the past 25 years.
november 28, 2000: Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Oleksandr Moroz released the "Melnychenko tapes" – audio recordings from President Leonid Kuchma's office, which triggered mass anti-presidential protests.
november 21, 2002: Ukrainian Prime Minister Anatoliy Kinakh resigns. Viktor Yanukovych, then the head of the Donetsk Regional State Administration, was appointed head of the government. This was not a crisis event in itself, but it became a prerequisite for further conflict and even crisis trends.
november 22, 2004: the beginning of the Orange Revolution, protests against the falsification of the presidential election results began throughout Ukraine.
november 28, 2004: Sievierodonetsk congress of deputies of all levels from the Party of Regions (as opposed to the Orange Revolution). The first sluggish and unsuccessful attempt at a separatist uprising by pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.
november 16, 2010: mass rallies and protests of entrepreneurs against the adoption of the new Tax Code, which were called the Tax Maidan. The protests lasted until early December.
november 5, 2012: On this day, one of the largest (during the presidency of Yanukovych at that time) rallies of opposition parties took place near the building of the Central Election Commission (CEC) in Kyiv. The protesters demanded that the victory of opposition candidates in 13 "problematic" constituencies be recognized. The rallies lasted for several days. President Yanukovych even disappeared for more than a week in an unknown location. However, a full-blown political crisis did not occur .
End of November 2013: President Yanukovych and the Azarov government refuse to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union. The beginning of Euromaidans throughout Ukraine. The night of November 30 – violent dispersal of Euromaidan in Kyiv, which triggered the Revolution of Dignity.
November 2016: a number of conflict events. on November 9, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko dismissed Mikheil Saakashvili from the post of head of the Odesa Regional State Administration. After that, Saakashvili created his own political party in Ukraine and joined the opposition to President Poroshenko. on November 15, several mass protests took place in Kyiv (according to law enforcement officials, about 6,000 people took part in them) – near the National Bank, the Cabinet of Ministers, and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Even Khreshchatyk was blocked. Fugitive MP Onishchenko said he had handed over audio recordings with "corruption" dirt on President Poroshenko to US intelligence agencies.
What is also interesting and symbolic: In November 2016,, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) opened the first three criminal cases on illegal enrichment based on the analysis of electronic declarations of two MPs and a judge.
There was no political crisis at the time, but the protest and violent temperament of November was noticeable.
november 5, 2017: The International Consortium for Investigative Journalism published materials called the Paradise Papers about the activities of offshore companies in the world, which mentioned 120 politicians, including the Prime Minister of Canada, President Poroshenko of Ukraine, members of the Donald Trump administration, and many others. There was no political crisis in Ukraine in this regard, but the information and political scandal was quite loud.
november 19, 2018: All-Ukrainian protest action of "Euro car owners" against the adopted law on the import and customs clearance of foreign cars in Ukraine, which was attended by about 5000 people in 23 settlements of 14 regions.
november 25, 2018: incident in the Kerch Strait – in the Sea of Azov, after passing through the Kerch Strait in international waters, during a direct confrontation with a Russian special forces unit near the Kerch Bridge, three Ukrainian Navy ships sailing from Odesa to Mariupol were fired upon and captured; 24 crew members were taken prisoner, while three Ukrainian sailors were wounded. At an urgent meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, President Petro Poroshenko approved a proposal to introduce martial law in Ukraine for 30 days in ten regions bordering Russia and the coastal areas. The next day, the Verkhovna Rada supported the relevant law .
november 17, 2021: Bellingcat and The Insider published the first part of their investigation into Wagnergate. The scandal itself, called Wagnergate, began in 2020, but the investigation has given a new impetus to this conflict situation.
November 2023: a public outburst of tension between President Zelensky and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, which later (in February 2024) ended in Zaluzhny's resignation.
November 2024: Political earthquake for the whole world – Trump's second victory in the US presidential election.
november 10, 2025: The first results of the NABU's investigation into corruption in the energy sector are published. The beginning of a major corruption and political scandal around this topic.
Of course, political crises in Ukraine did not occur only in November. And not every November was a crisis or conflict month. But in terms of the concentration of such events (especially in the domestic political dimension), November is the undisputed leader.
And if we look at the seasonal dimension, the potentially crisis (at least conflict and problematic) period for political processes in Ukraine is autumn and winter, from September to February. The most politically calm period for Ukraine, albeit relatively, is summer. The explanation is very simple: it is a period of vacations, holidays, and rest. There were attempts to organize "Maidans" during this period, but without much success .
Weather conditions in late fall and winter should prevent mass protests. However, we have the opposite. During the Revolution of Dignity, a Western journalist asked me with surprise: why do Ukrainians protest when it is cold and very uncomfortable outside, and not in summer or spring, when it is warm and sunny? In fact, there is no simple and rational answer to this question .
The fact that the two Ukrainian revolutions (the Orange Revolution and the Revolution of Dignity) began in November is a coincidence. And then the corresponding public perception was formed, a certain political tradition of large and small Maidans, even with attempts to copy the format of the Maidans, in particular with reference to sacred dates.
Nevertheless, a certain crisis mystique of November probably exists in Ukraine. And in general, there is always a certain element of mystery and irrationality in our political process.
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