Washington – Budapest: Is the end of the war approaching and what game are Trump and Putin playing?
Russian media have so far completely ignored Trump's statement about the front line. Such unanimity is only possible at the direct behest of the Kremlin. In such cases, the Kremlin has three tactics: it gives its own interpretation; allows the media to drown a story it does not like in the free generation of ideas and speculation, and then chooses three or four ideas that are most popular, so that everyone can think of something for themselves; or simply turns on the silence mode.
As of now, we have a silence mode.
It's hard to say what this silence is about. It may mean preparing to agree to this formula, and at the same time preparing to say "no" in Budapest.
Trump's conversation with Zelensky appears to have been a kind of ultimatum with the following introductory remarks: I (Trump) am seeking a ceasefire along the front line and agreeing to Putin's other wishes (allowing Russian parties to run for office, the Russian Orthodox Church, the Russian language, withdrawal of lawsuits and (partial) lifting of sanctions). It is still unclear what demands Russia will make regarding the reduction of the missile program and our army and military-industrial complex in general. And then, if there is an agreement, presidential elections will be held within 45 days (possibly together with the parliamentary elections).
In this context, there was no chance, even theoretically, to discuss Tomahawks and energy. And I'll repeat what I said earlier: at this stage, Tomahawks is a hybrid story, not a military one. Putin was scared: if you don't make a deal, we'll destroy the oil transshipment.
Another issue that is still off the table is the license for rare earth mining in northern Russia for American companies. After his conversation with Putin, Trump said that he was looking forward to economic projects that would start after the peace deal. This will also be part of the Budapest Agreement (if there is an agreement). And here Putin has a very difficult situation, because China will definitely oppose this.
Trump wants to enter negotiations with China as a "peacemaker" in order to prevent a united China-Russia front. But even if there is no deal, Russia will still be in a position where it needs to balance between Beijing and Washington, rather than falling completely under Beijing. Why? Let me remind you of the Tomahawks, which can easily be pulled out from under the table again.
If the talks fail, Trump will not be able to move away from the Ukrainian issue. The logic of the US elections will force him to be on our side, at least in arms sales. Therefore, this horror story should be rejected immediately. Even though it will be promoted by Russians and useful idiots.
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