Juntas for Moscow, democrats for Kyiv. How Ukraine competes for influence in Africa

On December 23, the summit of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) confederation concluded in Bamako, the capital of Mali. Based on its results, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine concluded that the Kremlin is increasing investments in African regimes of situational loyalty.For the third year in a row, Kyiv has been trying to compete with Russia for influence in Africa, focusing on completely different states. LIGA.net was figuring out who had better prospects in the competition, the victory of which was needed by both.How Russia inherited Africa from the USSRRussia has twice as many embassies in Africa as Ukraine. Moscow, drawing on its past, is creating a positive image. writes researcher Jenny Mathers at Chatham House.Russia has been present in Africa for 80 years, inheriting its diplomatic apparatus from the USSR. However, in the 1990s and 2000s, the Kremlin showed little interest in Africa due to its own problems. It began working systematically on the continent in 2014.Modern relations depend on the previous level of influence of the USSR on a particular country, explains Ilya Nesterenko, an analyst for African affairs at the ADASTRA think tank.Soviet influence in Africa began with Nikita Khrushchev and the Cold War, when the continent was shedding colonialism. Since then, Moscow has sought to influence Algeria, Egypt, Somalia, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Angola. The latter two were Portuguese colonies that Lisbon was reluctant to let go of for a long time.The methods of influence are varied, ranging from supporting local underground communists to state funding and cultural support.An example of the Soviet Union's failed intervention is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). There, the intervention ended with nothing for the USSR and five years of civil war for the DRC.In South Africa, the USSR systematically supported the African National Congress (ANC), which fought against apartheid. Even today, Moscow is still remembered fondly there.But now, the ability of Russians to influence a particular country often depends on how democratic it is, states Dzvinka Kachur, co-founder of the Ukrainian Association in South Africa and a research fellow at Stellenbosch University, from Cape Town:In South Africa, society elects the government and shapes policy. From 2013 to 2018, Russia's influence here was strong, due to then-President Jacob Zuma, who worked closely with Moscow because he wanted to copy the Russian model of power," she says. "At that time, Russia's influence spread through high-level connections.In 2018, Cyril Ramaphosa became president, and the country returned to democracy.According to the researcher, South Africa is currently equidistant from both Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, many residents here cannot imagine the war in Ukraine and believe it has ended because it is talked about less.How Ukraine is entering the continentKyiv began building relations with Africa from scratch in the 1990s. Since 2022, Ukraine's presence in Africa has expanded. Currently, Kyiv has embassies in 20 of the 54 countries on the continent. writes researcher Jenny Mathers at Chatham House.There are many topics that help Ukraine find common ground with different countries. The main message that Ukrainians are spreading in South Africa is the return of Ukrainian children stolen by Russia. Communication about other Russian crimes is not as sensitive for Africans as it is for Europeans.South Africa has independent courts and media that support Ukrainians. The main Ukrainian ally in the country is civil society. It helps to convey the truth about the war.Other consequences of Russian aggression that unite Ukraine with Africans include, for example, the issue of nuclear safety.South Africa is the only country on the continent with a nuclear power plant and the only one that voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons, so the situation in Ukraine is understandable to this country. Another common pain point is UN reform. After all, the UN Security Council does not act for Ukraine in the same way as it does for African countries.Soft power, disinformation, and botsRussia's cultural diplomacy in the region is extremely powerful, researchers say. It includes a network of 15 Russian homes, which offer free Russian language lessons and scholarships at Russian universities. Through PR campaigns, Russians present themselves as an influential player in the world that takes its relations with Africa seriously.Messages are often delivered through social media, which addresses audiences in their native languages. This authenticity helps pro-Russian messages resonate. Many Africans are suspicious of the West. Aid to Kyiv from the EU and the US is the reason why it is difficult to reach the people of the continent.Kyiv's aspirations for NATO membership also weaken Ukrainian anti-colonial messages. Western values of secularism and support for LGBT rights are less acceptable to Africans. Moscow constantly highlights this difference in views, contrasting conservative values with words about the decline of the West.After 2022, Moscow has been conducting targeted media campaigns in South Africa to portray Ukrainians as racists. The scheme is standard: a little truth and a lot of lies. The issue of racial discrimination in South Africa is a sensitive one. The Russians played on it. Ukraine was shown as part of Europe, from where the colonizers came. Russia presented itself as a fighter against colonialism, and Ukraine as a colonial country.The Africa Center for Strategic Studies conducted a project and counted 72 disinformation campaigns on the continent since 2022. The main region is West Africa, the same region where most pro-Russian regimes are located and where the Wagner PMC has been most active.The campaigns take place through social media and local media. They spread from country to country. A TikTok campaign targeting Niger and Mali had an impact in the DRC, which is also French-speaking.They work to distort reality. The crimes of the Russians and the misfortunes associated with the war evoke empathy. However, thanks to the message "War is bad, I sympathize with Ukrainian refugees, but the West is to blame, and because it helps Ukraine, not everything is right with it," the blame for the aggression is shifted to the victim.Russia often finances media campaigns through cryptocurrency. They are difficult to track. This industry allows you to hire bots from India and managers from South Africa. "The fact that today they are promoting Russia does not mean that tomorrow they will not be for Ukraine – you can hire the same bots," Kachur clarifies.Since 2022, Russia has been working with local influencers. They embed messages favorable to the Kremlin into their usual narratives. This is difficult to monitor because the blogger doesn't constantly talk about Russia.South Africa has a Russian Cultural Center, a Rosatom representative office, and parties that openly receive money from Russians.Some countries are more sympathetic to Ukraine. These are situational partners – Ghana, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Botswana, Morocco, and Tunisia. They support the Ukrainian narrative that the country is fighting for democracy. Many key states, such as Ethiopia, South Africa, or Nigeria, are carefully balancing, Nesterenko notes.Weapons, gold mines, and juntasRussia's key interest on the continent is the illegal trade in precious stones and gold. In 2022-2023, the Russian Federation earned, at least $2.5 billion in African gold.There is a club of dictatorships isolated from the Western world that cooperate with Moscow – primarily the West African juntas.In a number of countries in the region, there was an outbreak of Islamic terrorism in 2015-2016, and now many of them have military dictatorships – almost every one of them cooperates with Russia as a counterweight to the West, Nesterenko notes. Examples include Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the Central African Republic.For data According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are accelerating the institutional formation of the "Alliance of Sahel States" (AES) confederation. In late December, the leaders of the three countries announced the launch of the confederation's joint armed forces, development bank, and television channel.For Moscow, this opens up additional space for influence – in the areas of security, finance, and information – without formally assuming any obligations.The Kremlin is actively investing in the development of AES. In this configuration, Russia can increase its presence, but risks encountering the same practices of opportunism and betrayal that other external players have previously faced.Russians also use African countries as an additional source of resources for the war.According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andriy SybihaAt least 1,436 citizens from 36 African countries are currently fighting in the ranks of the Russian army in Ukraine. Some are offered money, others are deceived and do not realize what they are signing up for, or are forced to do so under pressure.At the same time, there is no mass recruitment of people from Africa for the war by Russia, similar to North Korea. If it were happening, it would have already become known, Nesterenko is convinced.As, for example, happened in South Africa. There, the daughter of the former president of the country, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, by deception recruited citizens of South Africa and Botswana to serve in the Russian army, so that they would fight against Ukraine.But these are only isolated cases. "There is no such thing as mass involvement with the approval of states," Nesterenko assures.Many African countries are trying to remain neutral regarding the war. The exceptions are juntas with ties to Russia.How Ukraine can compete in the struggle for AfricaUkraine's priority on the continent is the huge agricultural market. Since 2022, Kyiv has significantly increased its activity to displace Russia's economic, military, and diplomatic ties in Africa.In particular, Ukraine has provided over 300,000 tons of food aid and military support to countries affected by conflict. The "Grain from Ukraine" humanitarian initiative has sent food aid to over 8 million people in Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Nigeria, Kenya, Sudan, and Mauritania between 2022 and 2024.Refusal Donald Trump Part of the US humanitarian aid has allowed Kyiv to prove its value as a partner for African countries, writes Maters.Russia and Ukraine offer African countries roughly the same thing. First, grain. Second, military cooperation. Countries buy equipment, small arms, ammunition, and PMC services.The regimes where the Wagner PMC and other Russian groups operate are usually insolvent – in exchange, they give up gold, precious stones, and illegally mined resources from conflict regions. For example, in the Central African Republic, the government invited Wagner mercenaries to restore order and paid them with permission to "terrorize" gold mines.For many countries, cooperation with Ukraine is ideologically appealing – Europeans, who are not colonizers but are themselves trying to free themselves from their influence, are liked by democratic states. This is an advantage that Ukrainian diplomacy should use.Displacing the Russians in the arms and military services market will be more difficult than in the agricultural sector. In 2024, Ukrainian special forces operated in Sudan to support the army against the Rapid Support Forces and their Russian mercenaries.In Mauritania, Kyiv offered assistance in preventing the spread of hostilities from Mali, sharing what Maksym Subkh, Ukraine's special envoy to Africa, called "combat experience and technological achievements gained in the fight against Russia."In other cases, relations have been completely severed. In 2024, reports emerged that Ukraine had allegedly participated in training and providing intelligence to Tuareg rebels, who in July killed Russian and Malian soldiers, sparking a furious reaction. Soon after, Mali and Niger severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine, and ECOWAS – a regional bloc of 12 West African countries – issued a statement condemning "external interference" and "attempts to draw the region into ongoing geopolitical conflicts."As the surveyed researchers summarize, Russia relies on Soviet networks, gold mines, juntas, and disinformation. Ukraine relies on humanitarian aid, democratic narratives, and war experience. Most African countries choose neutrality, but democratic states lean towards Kyiv, and authoritarian ones towards Moscow. The speed of institutionalization (embassies, programs, security agreements) will determine whether Africa remains Russia's Soviet legacy.Read alsoThe Caribbean Sea Blockade: How the U.S. and Venezuela Ended Up on the Brink of War – Three Facts

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