What will happen to Europe without NATO. Four scenarios of life without the US umbrella

Alliancethat has guaranteed Europe's security for almost 80 years is cracking under pressure Donald Trumpforcing the continent to think about life without the United States for the first time.After the fears of the US withdrawal from NATO, Europe experienced a second blow – an encroachment on Greenland broke taboos and questioned the idea of a "benevolent hegemon." Against the backdrop of America's withdrawal from the rule-based world order, four disturbing scenarios are unfolding before the continent, writes swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung. LIGA.net tells us what they are like.Trump's shock therapy Transatlantic relations between the US and Europe have reached their lowest point in almost 80 years. After the first European shock of the Trump year, there was a second.The first shock was Europeans' fear of a possible US withdrawal from NATO.Trump has repeatedly made it clear that he has little regard for the Alliance. Even during his first term, Europeans held their breath several times. But there was no serious clash.With Trump's return to office in January 2025, the danger has reemerged. The announcement by the Europeans of a significant increase in defense spending temporarily calmed the US leader. He proudly added to his list of achievements the Europeans' promise to spend 5% of GDP on defense.In recent weeks, Europe has experienced a second shock – Trump openly threatened to annex a NATO country, which was a broken taboo. Calls for separation from the United States have intensified on the continent. Suddenly, dependence on the United States for security became a threat-what if the good hegemon became the aggressor?The United States is finally abandoning the rules-based world order that it has established and defended since the end of World War II, first in the West and then in the post-1989 world. On both sides of the Atlantic, the value of the longstanding partnership is now being tested.For Europe, the end of the Alliance could have far-reaching consequences, especially given the open war with Russia.Scenario 1: Russia and China divide EuropeRussia and China are betting on the collapse of NATO. In their view, Europe will not be able to resist their desire to dominate without the support of the United States.Russia wants to regain the position of the USSR – to oust the United States as a guarantor of sovereignty from Central Europe and dominate the region. From a position of strength, it will be able to conquer Western Europe. Then Russia will become a hegemon.China supports Russia's efforts to weaken transatlantic cooperation and European unity. For Beijing, it is important to have unimpeded access to European markets to sell its own surplus goods and transfer technology from there.A united West with Japan and South Korea could harm China's hegemony in Asia. So Beijing wants a weak Europe dependent on China.If the transatlantic partnership were to break up, Moscow and Beijing would be much more determined to continue to implement their plans.Russia could use pressure and war to bring much of Central and Eastern Europe into its sphere of influence.In such a scenario, China would strengthen its divide-and-rule strategy. Some European countries would be lured by investments and privileged access to the Chinese market. Deeper and deeper relations of dependence would gradually develop. The economic and political space for maneuver would be significantly limited.Russia and China would divide Europe between them, just as they do with the countries of Central Asia.Scenario 2: Europeans conclude separate agreements with the United StatesIf the transatlantic partnership breaks down, there may be separate agreements between European countries and the United States. They will cover security and economic relations. As a result, the EU with a common market will lose importance and will soon become irrelevant.Poland, Romania, Finland, and the Baltic states will be the first to enter into a new alliance with the United States. For them, a security pact with the United States is a guarantee of survival, as they are directly threatened by Russia's expansion. In their view, only the Americans can provide security.Other countries will soon follow suit. The UK, Germany, and Italy would quickly follow suit. Spain would follow later, and finally, reluctantly, France would do so. For these countries, it would be not only about security, but also about access to the U.S. market and high technology.Relations between the United States and Europeans would eventually look similar to those between the United States and its Asian partners, such as Japan, South Korea, or Australia.Scenario 3: Formation of a European NATOThe crisis in NATO could also lead to the creation of a European defense alliance. There are two possible ways.The first is that Europeans will make significant investments in conventional defense and will increasingly replace the United States. Once this long-term process is completed, Europe will be largely autonomous in its security policy and will be able to deter Russia on its own.Second, the United States announces its withdrawal from Europe. Europeans will then inevitably have to rebuild NATO as a purely European defense alliance. This has to happen quickly.However, the nuclear deterrent power of European NATO will be limited, as nuclear-armed Britain and France seem less threatening to Russia than the United States. Moscow may be tempted to test London and Paris. Are they really ready to fight Moscow on NATO's eastern flank?An open rift with the United States would increase the risk that Russia would see Europe as weak and try to break through on its eastern flank.Scenario 4: Northeast defense alliance against RussiaIn this scenario, Europeans cannot agree on how they want to change NATO.In particular, the countries of Southwestern Europe-France, Spain, Italy-and Central Europe, such as Austria and Hungary, would refuse to form an anti-Russian alliance. Instead, they would say that negotiations with Russia are necessary for "joint construction of a new European security architecture."There would have been a split. Poland, the Baltic states, the Scandinavians, and the Romanians would quickly conclude a defense pact. After some debate, the British and Germans would join it. The stated goal would be to contain Russia.Both sides will try to preserve the EU and the single market. But all parties will strengthen their economic cooperation. The European Union will lose its relevance. In addition, the new anti-Russian alliance will try to regain the United States as a partner.Key findingsThe future development of the situation may be a combination of all these options. All four scenarios continue the trends that are already evident. All are associated with significant risks.For the foreseeable future, the United States will remain the leading superpower – militarily, economically, and technologically. Russia will remain a threat to Europe. And China plans to expand its power on the continent.NATO was a happy accident for Europe. It managed to stabilize the European system after the Second World War and during the Cold War, and to limit Russia's imperial ambitions.Even though transatlantic tensions are high, Europeans have no good alternative. Given this, investing in NATO's strength remains the best option.Read also"It's like a red terror". 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