The Ayatollah regime is on the brink. What scenarios await Iran and what does this mean for Ukraine

The ayatollahs' regime in Iran has been suppressed protests, but did not regain control of the situation. The country is in a state of delayed explosion — with the risk of new uprisings, internal destabilization and military intervention of US.LIGA.net analyzing key scenarios for the development of events in Iran, their impact on Russia, and possible consequences for Ukraine – together with Serhiy Danylov, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies.First scenario: protests resumeThe Iranian authorities suppressed this stage of the protests. "There are no protests right now. What's more, from time to time, the authorities bring out the 'Basij' vigilantes to intimidate, create an atmosphere of fear, and demonstrate force – at times when there is the highest probability of a US strike," says the analyst.But they will definitely be restored. "Most likely, the protests will resume on the 40th day after the mass shootings of January 8-9, on the day of remembrance for the killed – around February 17-18. On these days, there will be processions in memory of the dead," he is convinced. "This repeats the events of 1978-1979, when the Islamic Revolution took place – then the protests resumed every 40 days."No one knows the exact number of victims yet."The more internet connections there are in Iran, and the more photo and video evidence of the events of early January, the more accurate the data will be," says the analyst. "But I agree with analysts that the victims number in the tens of thousands, closer to 20,000."Mass murders are a shock to many; they will not be forgiven. "If there are tens of thousands of casualties from the use of automatic rifles and machine guns on the streets, imagine how many wounded there are. Considering that a family in Iran is not as nuclear as in Ukraine, where there is a husband, wife, children, and parents, but also cousins, second cousins, siblings, and their children."This could reduce the loyalty of the Iranian regime. "Now we need repression and executions to keep them in submission.""I do not rule out that terrorist groups of those close to the deceased are also beginning to unite to strike the regime," Danilov says. "There is an erosion from within, the creation of resistance networks. It will be much easier now for Americans or Israelis to recruit agents among Iranians."There are forces that could theoretically provide the Iranians with weapons, but it would be difficult. "There are channels through Kurdistan – they mainly serve the Kurds. That's where the most casualties were during the first period of protests," the expert lists. "This channel hasn't disappeared. Israel is accused of supplying weapons to Iranian Kurdistan through Iraqi Kurdistan.""There are weapons circulating through Balochistan, where there is a poorly controlled border, where there are Baloch rebels (Baloch are an Iranian-speaking people, 9 million people, who inhabit Balochistan, divided between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, Sunni Muslims with a tribal structure, who have a powerful independence movement, known for their unique culture and nomadic past. – Red"Something is leaking from Afghanistan," he continues.Read alsoA revolution without saviors. An Iranian opposition figure on the struggle of Gen Z against ayatollahs and monarchsSecond scenario: the regime intensifies terrorThe Iranian regime clearly understands that this is the end. "If we don't carry out reforms and change the system, sooner or later another crisis will lead to paralysis and disintegration," he is convinced. "Everyone understands this – conservatives and modernists."But they don't understand how to make reforms. "Various groups are fighting in the regime, determining its future – they understand that something needs to be changed, but it's not entirely clear what and how," Danilov explains. "The current system is unviable, doomed to collapse. Therefore, the internal struggle over where to go is intensifying."The ayatollahs fear the path of the USSR – collapse and disintegration. In the speeches of conservatives, one often hears comparisons with Gorbachev – the beginning of reforms could mean the beginning of the end of the regime. But they do not propose an alternative.An alternative could be an ultra-rigid dictatorship with subsequent executions and simultaneous economic reforms. "But then they have to step on their own tail – to return 50% of GDP to the economy, which is not taxed, which is controlled by the ayatollahs and the IRGC," the analyst says.Therefore, for now, the regime is in a stupor. "For reforms, we need to unblock foreign trade and abolish fuel subsidies. In Iran, a liter of fuel costs about 1 UAH," he continues. "We need to reinstate taxes on all Islamic funds that operate without oversight, and stop financing the military-industrial complex and imperialistic policies in the region. Then there will be money to stabilize the country."However, too many problems have accumulated. "A crisis of legitimacy, currency devaluation, water, and energy. In the summer, there was no electricity for weeks," he lists. "Cheap fuel is disappearing, there's a shortage of gas – in a country that is first or second in the world in terms of its reserves. There's a shortage, in particular, for gas turbine power plants."Third scenario: The U.S. launches a combined strike.ReferencePresident of the United States Donald Trump, according to media reports, has four main response scenarios, including military strikes, the abduction of Khamenei, and cyberattacks.In January, US Special Envoy Steve Biegun outlined the Trump administration's key conditions for a diplomatic settlement of the situation:Complete cessation of uranium enrichment;A substantial reduction in the arsenal of ballistic missiles;Elimination of nuclear material stockpiles (approximately 2,000 kg of enriched uranium in the range of 3.67% to 60%);Cessation of funding and support for regional proxy groups.The U.S. has put forward four points that amount to surrender."The regime cannot agree to them yet. The ayatollahs want agreements, negotiations, to buy time," Danilov is convinced. "But they cannot agree to abandon uranium enrichment, to external control over it, to abandon and control their missile program, to stop supporting the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorists, to stop political repression in the country.""Administration" Donald Trump "The fourth point can be sacrificed," the analyst is convinced. "But they will insist on the first two. The regime cannot agree to this now."The US attack was supposed to start on February 1, but it is being postponed. "Perhaps the US military wasn't ready. I don't rule out a hybrid format – negotiations and strikes. This time, there will be strikes not only on the nuclear program but also on headquarters, barracks, and deployment locations of the IRGC."Iran will respond, it may even block the mouth of the Persian Gulf. "The targets of the Iranian missile strikes could be US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. All these locations will be hit," he says. "For the first time, they are threatening in a way that seems possible – to block the Strait of Hormuz. There is a probability, unlike previous times when the Iranians were bluffing.""In addition, they have ways to mine the Strait of Hormuz or use naval drones, a fairly large mosquito fleet," the expert adds.ConsequencesThe most positive, but unlikely, outcome is the fall of the regime. "This will definitely lead to a weakening of the regime, just like after the 12-day war with Israel and the US, which showed the weakness of the ayatollahs," says Danilov. "And to a new explosion of protests at the end of the month or in March."For Ukraine, this is a positive. "Oil prices won't jump significantly. But the weakening of Iran is a weakening of Russia," he summarizes. "Russia's ally is weakening, which is a positive for us. The only thing is that Patriot missiles are in short supply, and the attention of the world's media will primarily go there."Read alsoThe Kremlin is trying to save Iran from a new Israeli strike: an analysis of the consequences for Ukraine

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