Don't wait for salvation. What the updated US national security strategy means for Ukraine
The U.S. has released updated national security strategyAn interesting document for analysis. Many have been waiting for it, but few will actually read it. What a pity. Because it outlines where the United States will be heading first.
First, Washington is returning to a very simple principle: "American interest (America) above all else." No romanticism about "shared values," just maximum pragmatism. If this seems too strict to anyone in a world of total chaos, I congratulate you, you haven't read the previous strategies.
Second, Russia is officially defined as a threat not to Ukraine, but to the Euro-Atlantic order. That is, talks about "reset" or "strategic stability" are more about the intentions of certain individuals in Trump's entourage than about the common vision of official institutions. The document explicitly states: limit, contain, deprive of instruments of influence.
Third. China is now in first place. Everything else is secondary. And here's the main conclusion for us: the war in Europe should not distract the US from its focus on China. This means that Washington will be looking for not ideal solutions for Ukraine, but working ones. Those that do not create a "paradigm shift" in their global game.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
First, we are important. But not in the spotlight. America wants predictability on the European front. This is not about peace "on the aggressor's terms," but it's also not about endless rocking of the boat. They need a stable format that doesn't drain resources.
Secondly, the Ukrainian question is now viewed through a Chinese lens. Whether we like it or not, this is a fact. Any new format of negotiations, guarantees, or agreements will be evaluated by the criterion: "Does this weaken the US in its confrontation with China?"
Thirdly, security guarantees are no longer about pretty words. They are about limiting Russia's ability to wage war. In other words, the focus is on deterrence, not on returning the world to its 1991 state.
Fourth, Ukraine must demonstrate agency, not wait for salvation. The US strategy very clearly states that it will support those who do not create chaos at home. Those who demonstrate that they can hold the line – both on the front and in politics (a nod to the domestic political agenda).
And now, not about the text of the strategy, but about the logic.
Americans invest where there is a chance for results. Ukraine should not be "this is a difficult case, but we are holding on," but "this is a project that works even in a war."
In today's world, those who can be predictable win. And the new US strategy simply tells us what we already know: that the best security guarantees are our own capabilities (military, economic, political). And only after that come documents, declarations, and diplomatic formats.
Comments