Xi and Trump agree to talk – and this changes the scenario for ending the war

The first result of the meeting between the leaders of the United States and China is the very fact of this meeting. That is, the two superpowers have actually opened a negotiation track.This is important for us, as Trump's attempts to set the framework for negotiations on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war on his own have failed.See also Trump and Xi set new rules. Five facts about the meeting that has been waiting for six yearsSecondly, the parties are unwilling (and not ready) to enter into a full-scale trade war with derivatives in the form of threats (more media than real) of military confrontation.This means that the field of scenarios for ending the war is expanding again. The likelihood of a "mere freeze" without additional political or financial arrangements is somewhat reduced. The likelihood of the war escalating is also sharply decreasing. Why it matters? a "freeze" in the event of a confrontation could be seen by the United States and China as a way to avoid unnecessary risks, let alone an expansion of the Russian-Ukrainian war to the point where both states would be forced to intervene. Neither Trump nor Xi want to fight, nor do they want to spend large (in terms of their economies) resources to support the parties.Third result. Raising the issue of Ukraine and Russia at the very first meeting means an invitation to China to join the process. In fact, this is what Xi was expecting – a direct request from Trump to join in. And this shows that this war cannot be stopped without China . But this did not happen because of the "exclusivity" of our issue for the two superpowers. The level of China's involvement and the options for ending the war will become the basis on which the zones of presence of American and Chinese interests in the region will be built. Including in Ukraine.Fourth thesis. Today's meeting is only the beginning of the process. Given that the parties took a year-long pause in the confrontation on important issues (tariffs, rare earth elements), we have a time frame – a period in which both the formation of a system of future US-China relations and the format of a peace agreement on Ukraine will be "packaged".This means, on the one hand, time that the parties will try to use to demonstrate their successes. And on the other hand, it is time to form a vision of how and under what conditions (and with whose support) the war will be ended (but in 2026, not earlier).In view of this, we can expect China to intensify its policy toward us. In particular, the appointment of a new (or simply activation of the existing) special representative of Beijing on the Russian-Ukrainian war. That is, a negotiator who contacts both sides.Or, perhaps, by analogy with the United States, two groups: one for Russia and one for Ukraine. And the subject of discussion (according to Beijing) will be not only the war, but also post-war cooperation.This is nothing new – the United States uses the same algorithm. China, given that Trump "failed", is implementing a similar approach.What does this mean for Ukraine? It means that Ukraine needs to sharply intensify its policy towards China. Pretending that "China does not exist" will no longer work. China is already in the process, even if it is not very enthusiastic, but with the consent of the United States. This means that it is a party with which we need to talk. In the end, not all EU countries were eager to help Ukraine in 2022, but regular communication helped.Many mistakes have already been made on the Chinese direction. But there are also a large number of intermediaries that are important to Beijing, with whom Ukraine has good relations. These could be, for example, Turkey and Poland – if we are talking about our closest neighbors. More broadly, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Egypt. There is enough choice. You can work at.But in addition to the issues of war and peace, we should keep in mind rationality. Both the United States and China will "stop the war" for the sake of something, i.e., the realization of certain plans in the region. This means that Ukraine needs specifics and proposals in the economic and foreign policy spheres.Original

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