Opinion
On Ukraine's GDP and its growth components: an assessment of the situation
Spoiler alert – the quality of growth is questionable, the prospects are pessimistic, and the consequences of such growth may be negative
Vyacheslav Butko
economist, managing partner of the investment project Thomson & French, economic adviser to the Kyiv Security Forum
In Q2, real GDP growth was 0.7%. This is better than in the first quarter (0.2%), but it is hard to call this growth anything but anemic. The NBU's assessment of the components of GDP growth is noteworthy: private consumption provided the largest positive contribution to GDP growth in Q2 (5.5 percentage points), and growth in household final consumer spending accelerated to 9% year-on-year, up from 1.6% in Q1.
My comments and assessments of the situation and prospects:
Growth through investment would be of higher quality and offer greater prospects for maintaining GDP growth in the long run;
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