Opinion
On the prospects for economic growth in Ukraine
The economy grew in 2023-2024 primarily due to the budgetary impulse. What does it expect in the coming years?
Vyacheslav Butko
economist, managing partner of the investment project Thomson & French, economic adviser to the Kyiv Security Forum
Ukraine's GDP is expected to grow only anemically in the coming years. The reasons for this are the exhaustion of the main drivers of economic growth and the potential for economic recovery.
GDP grew by 0.9% in the first half of 2025. For comparison, in the first half of 2024, GDP grew by 4.1%. The growth rate slowed more than four times.
An important fact went unnoticed: the National Bank's veiled recognition of the lack of economic growth prospects. One of the NBU's "Inflation Reports" at the beginning of the year stated: "In 2024, GDP approached its potential level. Over the forecast horizon, the GDP gap will remain close to zero. The number of production capacities has decreased due to the destruction and loss of territories.".
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