A blow from the allies. How European selfishness helps Russia to "turn off" big cities

Russia has improved its strategy of missile and drone attacks – it is pursuing a clear course of "shutting down" large cities, especially the capital. But besides this, the "genocidal component" has also significantly intensified – the deliberate destruction of residential buildings to kill civilians.Why do they succeed? The share of ballistic missiles that are difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to counter has increased significantly.Read alsoWhat 2026 will bring to Ukraine and the world – three scenarios. Horbulin and Badrak's forecastjanuary 9 – 13 ballistic missiles;on January 13, about 20 rockets were fired in an hour;january 20 – 18 Iskander-M/S-300 ballistic missiles.The missiles were accumulated in anticipation of frost to evoke a sense of Armageddon, weakness, and readiness, if not to surrender, then to make critical concessions.In 2024-2025, Russia improved both its strike missiles and long-range drones. They have created a modernized version of the 9M723 missile for the Iskander air defense system, where ballistic missile already has a range of 1,000 kilometers. It would take several pages to list all the updates to cruise missiles and drones, and for Ukraine, the conclusion is quite obvious: the enemy has an advantage in systematic approaches to warfare.I would like to note that the development of these weapons was made possible by smuggling in circumvention of sanctions and Chinese technological assistance.And if we want to survive, we need to change our approaches.Protection against missile terrorism When it comes to countering ballistic missiles, Ukraine is critically dependent on its Western partners, especially the United States. "We have no fewer air defense missiles; the Russians have more missiles," Zelenskyy commented on the lack of defense and added: "The only countermeasure to Russian ballistics is PAC-3 missiles for the American Patriot system."Well, in this case, we need to appeal to our partners more actively, and this is partially being realized. On the night of January 20, a record number of "one-off" shootdowns were recorded. While on November 8 last year, only 9 out of 32 ballistic missiles (including 7 hypersonic Daggers) were shot down, on the night of January 20, 14 out of 18 ballistic missiles were shot down (albeit without Daggers). This suggests that PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot air defense system have already arrived. This was later confirmed by Zelenskyy, who said that Ukraine's partners had transferred missiles for air defense the day before the Russian missile strike.Read alsoZelensky: I know that ballistics are flying, and my partners know that I have an empty divisionThere is, of course, another side to the issue: this night attack cost Ukraine about 80 million euros for air defense missiles alone.At the same time, the documentaccording to which Ukraine needs $27 billion worth of arms supplies from outside the EU only in 2026, and this primarily concerns American systems.Thus, the EU, which has allocated 60 billion euros for military support to Ukraine for two years, must accept that a significant portion of these funds will be spent on the purchase of weapons from the United States. However, Europeans can buy such missiles from Japan or Saudi Arabia (these two countries have the most), but also from other players. Not to mention the fact that a number of European countries could "share" missiles from their arsenals, at least until they are replenished with new ones.Unfortunately, at the end of January 2026, European selfishness manifested itself, based on an incomplete understanding of the Russian threat and Europe's weakness. In early 2026, France and Italy created the newest SAMP/T NG, and Ukraine, despite the promise received to become the first operator of the new version of this system, was unexpectedly left out. The Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG, which is supposed to shoot down Iskander-M ballistic missiles and hypersonic Kinzhal missiles at a range of more than 150 km, has been transferred to the Italian Armed Forces.Ukraine was promised 8 SAMP/T NGs developed by the Eurosam joint venture (MBDA Italy, MBDA France and Leonardo), but this has not yet been translated into any agreement and remains in the same memorandum as the 100 Rafale, without any specifics.Ukrainians hardly deserve this. Moreover, participation in the licensed production of such systems would be the most important part of security guarantees for the future, both for Ukraine and for Europe itself.A similar blow came from France, which finally refused from purchasing U.S. weapons for Ukraine under the PURL initiative, which certainly reduces Ukraine's missile defense capabilities at this very difficult time.Following France, Germany refused to transfer new Patriot systems to Ukrainedefense Minister Pistorius confirmed on January 26 that Berlin is currently unable to provide Ukraine with additional Patriot SAMs from its immediate stockpile, as Germany has already done "disproportionately much" to strengthen Ukrainian skies, and further deliveries would undermine its own defense capabilities.A separate case is the United States. Washington is visibly concerned about Europe's drift away from American defense companies. But in early January 2026, the Pentagon signed a seven-year deal to triple the production of Patriot missiles with Lockheed Martin, from about 600 interceptor missiles a year to about 2,000.And if everyone in the Western camp is interested in speeding up the process, why shouldn't Ukraine return to the issue of obtaining the same license to produce such missiles as Germany and Japan? Again, within the framework of Western guarantees.Read also"He acts like an AI algorithm". How Trump used Greenland to tame Europe and UkraineImproving air defense to shoot down Russian dronesThe president criticized the "unsatisfactory work" of the Air Force on the night of the "shahed" and appointed the already legendary Pavel Elizarov as the new deputy commander of the Air Force. His task is to build an anti-drone dome over the country. On Zelenskyy's part, this is actually a recognition of the absence of a drone interception system in the state and the shortcomings of his own Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Office.This is also a consequence of the parasitic existence of the Kamyshin-Smetanin Ministry of Strategic Industries in 2023-2025, as a powerful system could and should have been built from mid-2024, when effective solutions for scaling appeared. However, even at the end of January 2026, only two of the 10 downed Shahed/Geranium-type nuclear weapons were intercepted by drones.Now, the new Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov is faced with the challenge of "patching up the holes created by his negligent predecessors."Ukraine has begun to develop a multi-level concept of fighting the "Shahed", where each platform has its own tactical task. Turboprops are used for long-range patrolling and interception at a distance; helicopters are used for mobile response to a specific threat; AI turrets are used to protect infrastructure and settlements; interceptor drones are used to perform a wide range of tasks, both for work on the outer borders and for destroying targets on the approaches to important facilities.There are also "decisions with European egoism" in this area, such as the Czech Republic's refusal to sell L-159 aircraft to Ukraine, despite statements by their president and military. But there is also the short-sightedness of domestic officials. As far back as 2022, experts advised considering the possibility of purchasing Brazilian A-29 Super Tucano light combat aircraft. Now, at the end of January 2026, the Poles are carefully studying the possibility of purchasing this model, for which they visited Embraer Defense &amp; Security in Brazil.It is true that a turboprop attack aircraft costs $10-17 million (depending on the modification and equipment), but when it comes to the rather sad statistics of downing the LHC, the price fades into the background. Because while official statistics assure that there are 3-10% of hits, unofficial statistics say more than 20%. In such circumstances, it is necessary to use all available opportunities.But in addition to the tools themselves, it is also important to link them into a single integrated system that would effectively detect stealthy air targets, transmit data in real time, and ensure that all components act in concert.Read alsoThe trademark is "Tested by war". Why Ukraine needs an army of 800,000 after the truce with RussiaStructural solution suggested activist and soldier Ihor Lutsenko. It is necessary to put the rear on wartime rails, integrate all detection and destruction means into a single system, unify all means and speed up the registration of civil-military partnerships between business and air defense. Regarding the latter, there are already examples in Ukraine: in January, for the first time, a volunteer formation of a territorial community formed combat crews to work with interceptor drones: "Legion Obolon was the result of five months of work by the Dignitas Fund in cooperation with the military.A separate, so far lost area is the creation of an integrated radar field over Ukraine. This requires about 400-500 radars of various types, from tactical to strategic. At the same time, the state does not systematically invest in R&amp;D in the field of radar construction, does not have a targeted policy for the development of its own national radar school, including integrated systems and personnel.And yet we have up to a dozen powerful radar manufacturers, and experts say that this problem could have been solved long ago if the state had been systematically dealing with it. For example, by creating a radar consortium or cluster.Almost the same applies to the development of the domestic school of SAMs and missiles, where sporadic efforts by private players have only now begun to be considered and supported – recently, eight companies received Brave1 funding to develop ballistic and anti-aircraft missiles. But it's worth remembering that it was Ukrainians who did the impossible (which American engineers did not believe in) – docking Western-made anti-aircraft missiles with Soviet air defense systems of the Ukrainian Air Force, the FrankenSAM project.Read alsoRobotic kilt against the shortage of people at the front: how it works and how much it costsSearch for a new security systemTherefore, the issue of missile and anti-drone resilience of the Ukrainian nation lies both in the realm of international diplomacy and in the realm of timely and effective domestic decisions.It would be logical to mathematically prove to European partners their vulnerability to Russia, to develop and persistently propose a common security and defense strategy. Experts and some diplomats consider the issue to be "up for grabs" because there are already signs that Europe is looking for a format a military alliance without the United States and with possible participation of Ukraine.Some see the initial development of joint capabilities in subregional associations, such as The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF, with ten Nordic countries). The main thing is that the defense of Ukraine should become a litmus test for the general confrontation in the context of the destroyed old world order and international security system.As for the second area – the right internal security decisions – some personnel decisions can already be called a positive prerequisite. But on a global scale, as has always been the case in the most difficult times, non-governmental institutions, which are traditionally more effective than the government, must come to the scene to guide and, where necessary, adjust decisions. One way or another, the air and missile defense system is becoming the first bastion and the main marker of the nation's resilience in 2026 and beyond.

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