Budanov heads the Presidential Office – first conclusions and forecasts

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed decree on assignment Kirill Budanov head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.Budanov is one of the few people really close to the president. We explain what his appointment changes and who will face problems."Another frontier of responsibility". How Budanov agreed to take over the President's Officeon January 2, President Zelenskyy proposed that the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Budanov, head the Presidential Office.Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine now needs to focus more on security issues, the development of the Defense Forces, and the diplomatic track in negotiations. According to him, the Office of the President will serve primarily to fulfill these tasks."Kyrylo has special experience in these areas and sufficient power to achieve results. I also instructed the new head of the President's Office, in cooperation with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and other necessary leaders and institutions, to update and submit for approval the strategic framework for the defense and development of our state and further steps," Zelenskyy said.A little later, Budanov confirmed that he had accepted Zelensky's offer.I consider the position of the Head of the Presidential Office as another milestone of responsibility to the country. It is an honor and a responsibility for me to focus on critical issues of strategic security of our country at a historic time for Ukraine," he wrote."The main military administration of the country". Why it is importantBudanov's arrival at the Presidential Office means that the OP is informally turning into the country's main military administration, says LIGA.net Andriy Osadchuk, MP from the Voice party.This change is adequate to the conditions of war and martial law, adds Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies."But for some of the leaders of the presidential team, this appointment will be an unpleasant challenge," he says. "They have just begun to get used to almost unlimited freedom of action in the absence of supervision from the OP. Now the situation may change."Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Colonel Pavlo Palisa LIGA.net said they would not comment on such forecasts at this time.There is an exquisite political irony in the appointment of Budanov as head of the OP.As they assure LIGA.net two interlocutors in the intelligence community, in 2025 his predecessor on Andriy Yermak made a lot of efforts to remove him from the post of the GUR. Both interlocutors can count at least five such attempts.According to one of the interlocutors, they ended in nothing, because each time Budanov demonstrated high efficiency in solving complex problems on the battlefield.Very often, when the president asks if Kirill Alekseevich can do something at a meeting, the answer is: "Of course, Mr. Supreme Commander-in-Chief". And then we do it," says one of the intelligence officers.Among the reasons for Yermak's dislike of Budanov, intelligence sources name three key ones:Budanov often provided the president with information that did not coincide with the data and forecasts of Commander-in-Chief Syrsky. And he had the privilege of communicating directly with Zelenskyi without coordinating his information with Yermak, the intelligence officers emphasize.The desire of Yermak's team to monopolize the direction of diplomatic strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation. The GUR, on the other hand, retained autonomy in how and with what to strike.We have established systems for procuring various types of weapons on the global arms market, which is a very closed and very specific environment.However, according to two interlocutors in the OP and the intelligence community, while in November there was another wave of rumors that Budanov was to be replaced by Deputy Head of the SBU Oleksandr Poklad, the situation changed in early December.After the publication of the Mindich tapes, Budanova, along with the Chief of the General Staff Andriy Hnatov attracted to the negotiation process with the United States, where Ukraine's position had to be stretched to at least acceptable levels.How will the OP change under Budan?Interlocutors LIGA.net are convinced that after Budanov's arrival in the presidential office, the power bloc will be strengthened.Compared to Budanov's style of governance, Yermak's time may seem like a celebration of democracy to many, adds Solomiya Bobrovska, a representative of the Defense Committee (Holos).The DIU source clarifies that it could simply be a matter of different approaches to performing tasks. Budanov, as a military man, is used to the unquestioning fulfillment of tasks. For many civilians, such exactingness would be unusual."I think he will be a professional and decisive head of the OP. He looks at things in a realistic and sober way," adds Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Rada's Foreign Policy Committee (FPC).We should probably expect personnel changes in the defense and intelligence sectors, Bobrovska says.Some of them are already known. GUR lead Oleh Ivashchenko is the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. This agency is not new to him: in 2017-2019, Ivashchenko served as the first deputy chief of the GUR and deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for intelligence. Off the record, one of the interlocutors LIGA.net says that he is "hardly a one hundred percent Budanov's man, but rather a neutral one."Also, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Igor Klymenko will soon present candidates for replacement head of the State Border Guard Service. Sergiy Deyneko, who currently holds this position, will continue to work in the system of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.Although Deineko's replacement may just be an echo of Mindgate," Osadchuk adds.In his evening address, Zelensky also announced a change in the Minister of Defense – Denys Shmyhal will be replaced by Mykhailo Fedorov. Also, according to him, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Pavlo Palisa is working on the necessary changes in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.It will be possible to understand the scale of the changes only after it becomes clear whether Budanov has carte blanche to make personnel appointments and whether he will have the same influence as Yermak. This will become clear within the next few weeks.Budanov's appointment also creates additional risks for the Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky. Two interlocutors LIGA.net the sources involved in the Defense and Intelligence Forces say that his relationship with Budanov is complicated and strained.According to one of the intelligence officers, an additional reason for this is that the chief has long been planning to take control of the DIU's combat units. "He does not understand why the DIU needs so many combat components. The chief thinks that we are effective because we have some motivated people who can be simply taken away, placed in a certain area of the frontline and let them fade away in full growth."Budanov's ability to influence military and political decision-making could add risks and problems for Syrsky.The work of the President's Office with the National Security and Defense Council is also likely to be reformatted, says one of the interlocutors LIGA.net in the Defense Forces. And this change is unlikely to please the NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov. According to one of his former deputies, he does not like to compete with charismatic military officers.Intelligence work is unlikely to be affected by this personnel change, the three interlocutors emphasize LIGA.net. "Kyrylo Oleksiyovych will be missed, but the GUR will not collapse," one of the intelligence officers confirmed.Under Ivashchenko's command, the GUR will continue to focus on reducing Russia's economic potential and neutralizing Russian military production, Zelensky said.And while Budanov's appointment to the OP may look like an attempt to neutralize the president in the elections, it doesn't have to be that way, Bobrovska concludes: "I assume that Budanov will use this chance to develop his career."Read alsoIs Zaluzhnyi really resigning as ambassador and where did the rumors come from?

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