The FT analyzed Russian job search websites – what salaries say about the war

Russian economy feeling worse and worse – even with a record shortage of personnel, the "wage race" has stopped, exposing deeper structural problems. Even extraordinary steps, such as teenagers entering the labor market, do not hide the problems, writes The Financial Times. LIGA.net summarizes the article.What is happening with salaries in RussiaIn November, the salaries of new Russian employees grew by only 6.9% year-on-year. This is a sharp slowdown compared to 18.9% in January.At the same time, the unemployment rate in Russia remains at a record low of 2.2%, which indicates a growing imbalance in the Russian economy.Slowing wage growth means that other indicators, including consumption levels and taxes, will also decrease. This will increase pressure on public finances. Russia is becoming more dependent on taxes because its oil and gas revenues are decreasing due to sanctions and low oil prices, Elina Rybakova, an expert at the Kyiv School of Economics, told the publication.Salary estimates are based on data from Russian job postings collected by the FT. The publication grouped the postings, analyzed trends using artificial intelligence, and then processed the results using a statistical method developed by the global hiring platform Indeed."The advertised salaries give us a real-time sense of the tightness of the labor market and predict the situation," says Paul Adelgren, director of economic research at Indeed. "It's an early warning that the economy is slowing down."The FT analysis also shows that the number of vacancies has decreased across all industries. The mining and transport sectors are leading the decline.Read alsoApartments as an investment: where in Ukraine you can still make moneyWhy Russian oil no longer worksAll of this comes after a wartime boom at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At that time, Moscow eased fiscal restrictions and used savings from past oil and gas revenues to finance weapons production and soldiers' salaries.Oil revenues continued to flow into the Russian budget because global prices rose sharply after 2022. The fear that supplies would be cut off boosted Russian GDP growth by an average of over 4% in 2023 and 2024.The influx of cash allowed businesses and state-owned companies to raise salaries to attract employees, even though their numbers were dwindling due to mass emigration from Russia, mobilization, and demographic decline.This has fueled inflation, which the Russian central bank is trying to curb."Cheap money creates a wage race without productivity growth," Elvira Nabiullina, the head of Russia's central bank, said earlier this month.The economy began to cool down last year, and GDP growth is expected to reach 1% in 2025 at best.Russia's economy is on the verge of stagflation"For the first time since the beginning of 2023, the economy is on the verge of stagflation," wrote Dmitry Belousov, head of a Russian state economic think tank founded by his brother, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.Stagflation is an economic phenomenon that combines stagnation (economic stagnation, decline in production, high unemployment) and inflation.Russia's state reserves are dwindling, which reduces cash flow into the economy. The central bank is holding the key interest rate at 16%, limiting access to cheap credit. Businesses cannot continue to compete for workers by raising wages, and therefore wage growth is slowing.According to the Russian Ministry of Labor, the country will need more than three million new workers over the next five years.According to a survey of businesses conducted by Russia's central bank in November, the labor shortage is over 25% – four times higher than the pre-war level. This is prompting unusual measures. In particular, allowing students who failed their ninth-grade exams to enter the labor market early.According to analysts, working hours in Russia have increased to a record 38 hours per week, while in developed economies the trend is moving in the opposite direction.Read alsoBrussels' "Rubicon." What Europe is preparing for Ukraine in 2026 and when the war will end.

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