Strike on Bessarabia: Russia's strategy of small goals and big consequences

To understand why Bessarabia has become one of the epicenters of Russian air strikes, LIGA.net spoke with local authorities, regional defenders, and military analysts. What Russian special services and paratroopers failed to achieve earlier, the Kremlin is now trying to accomplish with drones and missiles.We explain why Russia has once again focused on the Odesa region, what the southern air defense is lacking, and what will happen next."There is no panic". What is the current situation in Odesa region?Since early December, Russia has been attacking Odesa region on an almost daily basis. Energy infrastructure, ports, railways, and connections to the far south of the region, Bessarabia, are being targeted by drones, bombs, and missiles.The most massive air attack on Odesa itself was carried out by Russian troops realized on the night of December 13. On the night of December 19, Odesa region experienced another massive air strike the main target was the power system. As a result, 74,500 subscribers in the region were left without electricity. In Odesa itself, about 65,000 households were left without electricity and almost 85,000 without heating.The Russians also attacked the railroad and openly hunted civilian vessels, as in ports and on the high seas. The most difficult situation in Odesa region is in its southern part, Bessarabia.The occupiers launched a campaign of targeted and regular air attacks on bridge across the Dniester near the village of Mayaki. Due to these attacks, traffic in this direction on the Odesa-Reni highway was temporarily blocked on December 18. On the afternoon of December 19, it was completely closed to freight traffic.Now the situation in the south of Odesa region is already regulated, assures LIGA.net head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration Oleh Kiper."There are already alternative routes of various types, including transit through Moldova. Today, traffic is more or less free in both directions. Somewhere it may be a little uncomfortable, but in general everything works, there are no critical issues," he emphasizes.When 50-100 thousand subscribers are without power every morning, everything is important in a complex. This includes electricity, heat, and communication. Therefore, we work constantly and try to close all areas as soon as possible," assures Kiper.According to him, after the massive shelling of the South, the liquidation [of the consequences of the attack] has already been completed at certain facilities and now they are analyzing what can be restored quickly and where it is objectively impossible. "We are studying all the issues – both the damage and the recovery options. Road services, recovery services, and the State Emergency Service are working in parallel," he said.There is no panic in the cities of Bessarabia, they say LIGA.net in community leadership.There is a basic set of food products in stores and wholesale warehouses. There is no shortage of fuel, says LIGA.net oleksandr Butakov, Head of the Information Technology and Public Relations Sector of the Bolgrad City Council.At the end of the year, as usual, everyone gets their salaries and benefits, so queues at ATMs are a common occurrence for this period," he says.He adds that everyone in the city is now working as usual. The market, shops, utilities – everything is functioning. Water supply is available around the clock. Electricity is supplied according to the power outage schedules. "In some villages, the power is not turned off at all because there is a substation nearby and they cannot turn it off, so there is electricity there all the time," he says.In Tatarbunary, the situation is similar, describes LIGA.net andriy Glushchenko, head of the community. He says that nightly shakedown attacks have so far passed the community by."People have calmed down. Initially, they were taking away cereals and food stocks, but now this is not the case. There is enough food, it's being delivered," he said. "The bridge is already open, so supplies are going through the streets. The shops are full of food."Artsyz, an important railroad and logistics center in the region that came under heavy attack on the night of December 13, is still waiting for the issue of electricity to be resolved, says the mayor, Sergey Parpulansky. According to DTEK energy company, the city's power substation was "almost completely destroyed." Now the power is supplied according to the schedule – 4 hours on, 8 hours off.According to him, the difficulties with supply have also been resolved:We have everything. We live in the south of Odesa region, and there is always everything here. There are cellars and plenty of wine," says Parpulansky. "There are no problems with fuel, medicines or food. Critical infrastructure is operating normally.What is the purpose of Russian attacks on Odesa region?Russia's goal is to complicate Ukraine's logistics and cut it off from the sea, they say LIGA.net analysts interviewed. This is something that could weaken Ukraine both economically and militarily."Russia is trying to turn Ukraine into a weakened stump of a landlocked country as much as possible," says LIGA.net former spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Vladyslav Selezniov.Ukrainian logistics is structured in such a way that passenger flows and routes for the supply of military and technical assistance are mainly tied to the western border, and economic activity is tied to the southern border, agrees Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of military security programs at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy-XXI":Our agricultural exports go through the ports of Odesa and the Danube, and they are also used to supply fuel and lubricants," he says LIGA.net. – The land routes are used to transport goods to and from Moldova and Romania.Why exactly Bessarabia was in the crosshairsBessarabia is one of Ukraine's vulnerabilities. "More than 10 years ago, the Ukrainian General Staff was working on certain documents in case of a full-scale war," says Selezniov. "Back then, they believed that if the enemy had a 4.5-fold advantage, the risk of losing not only the left-bank Ukraine but also the entirety of Bessarabia was one of the most likely options.One of the key reasons is complex logistics. This problem was publicly discussed 11 years ago. Even outside of the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, a severe flooding of the Dniester could cut off communication with the region.Only two routes lead to the region through the Dniester Estuary. The first is through the bridge in Zatoka. It provided the shortest route to the south of Odesa region. It was damaged by the Russians in the spring of 2022 and is still being attacked periodically to prevent it from being fully restored.The second is the recently attacked bridge near Mayak on the Odesa-Reni highway. It partially passes through the territory of Moldova. Therefore, all vehicles have to go through customs and border control, explains LIGA.net Andriy Demchenko, spokesman for the State Border Guard Service.After the bridge in Zatoka was damaged, the Odesa-Reni highway became one of the main routes connecting Bessarabia with mainland Ukraine.Russia always tries to strike where Ukraine is most vulnerable, Seleziev reminds. Attempts to hit this region have not stopped since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2014.At that time, the Russians planned to organize separatist movements not only in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but also in Bessarabia. According to LIGA.net an Odesa activist who, together with the SBU, participated in the closure of the "Bessarabian People's Republic" project, the occupiers' plan was also built around the specific logistics of the region.According to him, the minimum plan envisaged that 50 GRU officers stationed in Bessarabia would organize and coordinate a separatist movement in the south of Odesa region after blowing up bridges connecting the region to mainland Ukraine. The maximum plan included the further seizure of the Odesa port, the landing of Russian troops, and the spread of unrest throughout the Odesa region.This plan failed: in April 2015, the SBU detained pro-Russian activists who were preparing to implement the project of the Bessarabian People's Republic.On the eve of the full-scale invasion, it was also expected that the Russians would land in Odesa and, possibly with the support of the contingent in Transnistria, take control of Odesa region."At the time, Russian large landing ships were on full alert with troops and equipment and had this task," says LIGA.net Oleksiy Melnyk, military analyst at the Razumkov Center, said: "But the sinking of the cruiser Moskva and the destruction of almost all Russian large amphibious ships put a full stop to the Russian landing. Then Ukraine's successful and unprecedented military campaign to counter the Russian Navy began and the Black Sea Fleet was neutralized."At the end of 2025, Russia intensified its attempts to do with air strikes what the Russian Black Sea Fleet was once supposed to organize – a naval blockade of Ukraine.What to expect nextAnalysts believe that it is unlikely that the attacks on Odesa will stop in the near future. In addition to the obvious political and economic components, this activity also has a powerful information and psychological component and is one of the ways to escalate the situation against the background of the negotiation process, Melnyk said:This is a complex operation, a kind of compensation for the lost naval capabilities," he notes. "The Russians are learning. They have developed quite effective tactics for their air strikes.However, he notes that attacks on port infrastructure and ships are a boomerang that comes at them. Because it is about the safety of navigation. "And the Ukrainian attacks on Russian tankers are a kind of Ukraine's response to Russia's actions," Melnyk believes.It was obvious in early fall that the enemy would be actively using drones to attack Odesa and the region, Selezniov agrees. Therefore, the region needs new approaches to organizing the air defense system."It is necessary to build up the MWG. But they are still very poorly staffed," says the former General Staff spokesman. "In addition, for some time, Marine Corps Commodore Dmytro Deliatytskyi and Navy Commander Oleksiy Neizhpapa "For several months, they could not resolve a bureaucratic dispute and allocate people to implement the project to cover Odesa with anti-aircraft drones.One of the officers involved in the implementation of the "drone air defense" project in Odesa confirms LIGA.net combat orders to transfer people were not signed for about two months. "In the end, people were released, but the delay in transfers increased the preparation time," says the source.Also, the president Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced replacement commander of the South Air Command. "We are strengthening air defense. We will also strengthen the command, to be honest," he said.However, replacing the commander alone is not enough to effectively protect the Ukrainian coast, Selezniov believes. It is necessary to completely reformat the approaches to the work of all units of the Defense Forces involved in this defense.All respondents LIGA.net analysts assure that there is no threat of a Russian landing in the region – there is nothing and no one to land from.Analysts are also unanimous about the risks that the Russian contingent in Transnistria may pose to the region. The contingent itself is not combat-capable, but it is still worth considering."Recently, there was information that they have also started working on the development of UAVs," Melnyk summarizes. "It's hard to say whether this is a tribute to the trends of modern warfare or preparation for provocations from Transnistria. We need to keep an eye on this. After all, if we say that Western deterrence forces will be deployed in Ukraine outside the combat zone, then the south of Odesa region may become one of these places of presence."Read also"The World as a Buffet". Why does Trump need a special envoy to Greenland and how does it threaten Ukraine?

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