The Black Swan Flew by: How the War in the Middle East Did Not Become a Disaster for Us
Who is biting their elbows the most right now, apart from the Iranian leadership, of course? Of course, Putin. What Israel (and America, which joined it) did to Iran in 12 days is exactly what Putin hoped to do to Ukraine. Well, to be more precise, he was counting on much more, but here we are not talking about the final result, but about the pace of progress.
Do you remember how 11 years ago, a Russian ultra-patriotic text "When the Russian army appears on the frontline in front of the Ukrainian army, it will be easy to understand" was circulated on the Internet? It was obviously nonsense or subtle trolling, but all chauvinist great-powerists prayed for the methods of suppressing Ukrainian resistance with the help of electronic warfare described there.
When the full-scale Russian invasion began in 2022, many expected that everything written in that text would finally come true. But as we know, instead of satellite-guided shells, the Russians used tank convoys without air cover.
Israel, on the other hand, has managed to come as close as possible to implementing its program of non-contact defeat of the enemy, if not to fully implementing it. Without losing a single aircraft, the Israelis have effectively zeroed in on Iran's missile and air defense forces. Oh, how Putin would like to be in Netanyahu's shoes!
But since Russia is not Israel, the Kremlin's only hope was to prolong the fighting, or even better, to expand its geography. Because a long, large-scale conflict in the Middle East has clearly strengthened Russia in its struggle against Ukraine.
the 12 days of open Iranian-Israeli war posed a complex threat to Ukraine, perhaps the greatest since the end of 2022. But the worst did not happen, and we still got some benefits in this situation.