"Trump believes in Ukraine": what European money and American weapons will really do
What Trump's Recent Statements May Mean for the Dynamics of the War and a Possible Settlement?
First, a little context.
In 2022-24, the Biden administration transferred about $35 billion worth of weapons, equipment, and military hardware to Ukraine.
Under the PURL program, Europeans can accumulate from $12 to $24 billion a year for the purchase of American weapons for Ukraine, i.e., $1 to $2 billion a month. The more the better, but let's be conservative. Even if we take an average of $1.5 billion per month, this is $18 billion per year for American weapons.
Provided that the US defense industry can fulfill orders and increase production, such indicators are likely to prevent us from seizing the strategic initiative, as Donald Trump says. Such a scale is more about defending the front and providing rear cover.
In addition, the program itself does not solve the problem of manning and commanding the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which is currently our biggest headache. Although, of course, systematic supplies from the United States for European money can remove at least one concern in the process of joining the Ukrainian Defense Forces, related to material support.
Therefore, at best, such an initiative will stabilize the situation, provided progress is made in manning and management, but it will not radically turn the tide of the war in our favor by seizing the strategic initiative and regaining everything temporarily lost. In the end, Russia is also backed by an autocratic coalition led by China, which does not want their player to lose.
But if the US supplies, financed by Europe, are systematic and long-term, it will send a good signal to the Kremlin that it will not be able to wait until it loses interest in supporting Ukraine, and it is better to negotiate rather than try to dictate its terms.
This certainty did not exist after the last aid package was approved by Congress back in April 2024, and Putin was counting on it. Now there is hope that the consistency of deliveries under the PURL program will slightly adjust the enemy's calculations.. .
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