Trump's first sanctions against Russia: this time it will be harder for Putin to get out of it
Sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft are important, but will not lead to immediate negotiations.
In a nutshell, Russia has been adapting to all previous sanctions for 3-4 months. These will be no exception .
The main difference is that the increase in oil production by the Persian Gulf countries and a partial change in India's position may make these sanctions much more difficult for Russia.
But there is a caveat here. India seems to have put forward a demand: we are ready to circumvent sanctions if you agree to localize the production of the S-400 (perhaps even the S-500) in India. So far, Russia has been categorically against this. In fact, India's position will depend on the answer to this question (preferably soon) .
However, Washington will also join in with pressure on India. Because the marker of friend or foe in the new world is three things: from whom you buy weapons, AI, and IT solutions.
It is also worth noting that the possibilities to buy Russian oil surpluses (if India reduces its purchases) are not unlimited. Therefore, Russia is likely to face a serious collapse in oil revenues (at least 10-15%) in the next 2-4 months .
But again, all factors must coincide for this to happen. And even in such circumstances, this does not mean that, having calculated all this, Putin will sit down at the negotiating table tomorrow.
So far, these sanctions are a problem postponed in time. And this is exactly how Putin treats it. Among other things, he knows that at some point the West will say: we cannot allow Russia to be completely humiliated.
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