Ukraine taught the world the word "no" – it writes it in blood on the front line

Has Donald Trump's peace initiative already failed? If so, what's next? And if not, what then?

I want to make a case for what I call strategic pessimism, which is to assume that Trump's negotiating efforts will fail, that Russia will continue to push back, and that Trump will back down. In other words, don't hope for the best – assume the worst. And I hope that Ukraine will also think about what to do if the worst happens – if the process falls apart .

How will it survive the war? What exactly is needed to hold the defense lines and protect the cities? Where will it get air defense systems? Planning, I am sure, is already underway, but it should not be based on the assumption that this peace process will move forward and be successful, but on the assumption that it will fail .

Likewise, if you decide to be optimistic and believe in a ceasefire, at least for a while, how can Ukraine ensure that Russia will not violate it? Assume that Russia will violate the terms. Don't expect it to comply with them. And finally, when this war does end, what will keep Russia from invading again? Assume that it will go to war again. Don't assume that Russia has somehow learned its lesson .