What are the conditions for Trump to begin real pressure on Russia?
For four months, Trump has been so supportive of Russia in general and Putin in particular that many have begun to see the American president as a Kremlin agent.
I don't think that's true – Hanlon's Razor requires not attributing to malice what can be easily explained by stupidity.
In my opinion, the American president's special attitude toward the Russian dictator has two reasons. At the institutional level, the head of the White House is simply jealous of the extent of the Kremlin leader's power. The US leader is constantly constrained by courts, political opponents, and even allies, not to mention voters, while dictators in Moscow or Pyongyang can run their countries as they see fit without looking back at anyone. Trump's desire to have the same power pushes him into the arms of tyrants.
On an individual level, Trump has not become a statesman, remaining a businessman. He sees power as an instrument of enrichment, and Putin and other dictators do exactly the same. Trump is used to making money in muddy waters, and for Putin, chaos is his native environment.
So, the White House really thinks that it can reach an agreement with the Kremlin on, for example, the Arctic on mutually beneficial terms. And if the "great deal" between Washington and Moscow will enrich Trump personally in the long run, why not turn a blind eye to Putin's ungentlemanly behavior?
But even this paranormal love for Putin could quickly fade if Trump finds it more advantageous to take a really tough stance against Russia at some point. Of course, we are not talking about two or three weeks or even two or three months, but such a moment could come before the end of this year .