What can be real security guarantees for Ukraine?
Russia can put forward a variety of conditions to agree to a pause in the war, but the most important issue is the security guarantees that Ukraine must receive from the West. If they are meaningful, the rest of Russia's demands will eventually lose their relevance .
However, the challenge is that security assurances can be understood as anything – they can be a few pieces of paper printed on a printer in the style of the Budapest Memorandum, or they can be mutual commitments backed by money and jointly working institutions.
The good news is that the latest White House summit showed that our partners understand that "security guarantees" work when they are backed by concrete numbers, expressed in budgets and specific deadlines. And it is around these numbers that the main conversations should take place until the decisive meetings between Trump and Putin take place .
I think that even the most sensitive territorial issue will be easier to resolve when there are convincing specifics on security guarantees for decades to come.
It is unlikely that we will soon see NATO military contingents on the territory of Ukraine as a guarantee. The boastful promises of the "coalition of the willing" will continue to be for Macron and Starmer's domestic political use.
But get as a guarantee:
- direct or indirect funding of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by Europe (including social security for the military);
- joint high-tech military production in the EU;
- multi-year contracts for the purchase of weapons from the United States;
- targeted budgets for the development of large-scale defense installations along the entire front line;
- clear schedule for EU accession;
- funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine, – a very real task.
P.S. And yes, I understand who Putin is and that the negotiations can be disrupted at any time, but this does not remove the need to speak to the West at every opportunity in the language of our interests.
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