20 predictions for 2026. Will the loss of Donbas, a democratic Congress, and AI songs happen

The Financial Times made the annual 20-point forecast for the coming year. The picture for 2026 still includes the war in Ukraine, far-right politicians, American rollercoasters, and technological development, but there are still no high-paid female athletes in sight.What to expect in the new year, and what won't happen there – LIGA.net retells briefly.Geopolitics – The Loss of Donbas and the Far-Right in Germany1 - Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not give up Donbas as part of a peace agreementAlthough Russia demands the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which it has not been able to seize in almost four years of war, Kyiv will not agree to this. Despite US pressure, surrendering Donbas would be too dangerous for Ukraine for military, constitutional, and political reasons.2 – Republicans will lose Congress. Democrats will regain the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections, but will not be able to take the Senate. Control over the lower house will allow them to block Trump's initiatives. A third, also unsuccessful, impeachment of Trump is not ruled out.3 – There will be no early elections in France. Given that the presidential elections are scheduled for the spring of 2027, most parties are focused on them. They see no point in early parliamentary elections.4 – The far-right AfD will not join the government coalition in Germany. However, on the CDU/CSU bloc of the Chancellor Friedrich Merz there will be pressure to cooperate with the AfD at the local and national levels if the far-right makes significant gains in the five regional elections.5 – Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will remain in office. The statistical odds of the Japanese head of government staying in power for more than a year are low, but Takaichi speaks directly in times of rising populism and remains popular.6 – British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will try to eliminate. The poor results of the Labour Party in the elections in Scotland, Wales, and some regions of England, and the likely success of the far-right Reform UK party, could lead to a change in the Labour Party leader, and consequently, the head of government.7 – Saudi Arabia will not normalize relations with Israel. Although Trump wants this to happen badly after his mediation of a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the chances of it happening are slim. The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmaninsists that the kingdom will normalize relations with Israel only on the condition of a clear path to the creation of a Palestinian state. The Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu categorically rejects this.8 – Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins a record fourth term as president of Brazil. Unless he has a last-minute health problem. At 80, da Silva is the favorite in the October 2026 elections. This left-wing politician benefits from a stable economy and a confrontation with Trump.Economy – Trump's tariffs and Africa's growth9 - Tariffs from Trump at the end of 2026 will not be higher than they are now. The reason is a significant drop in US stocks, threats of retaliation from China and other countries, and rising inflation in the States.10 – The Chinese yuan will rise insignificantly. China's huge trade surplus indicates an undervaluation of its currency. The yuan is worth 7.01 per dollar. The annual forecast is 6.89. At the end of 2026, the currency will not exceed this rate.Read alsoMoney should work for you. Where can you invest in 2026?11 – Leading central banks will continue to cut rates. With the exception of Japan, the central banks of other leading industrial countries will further lower interest rates in 2026.12 – More private "credit cockroaches" will appear. This is a metaphor describing hidden credit risks. Defaults on private loans have almost tripled since 2022. This will cause losses for investors, but it will not severely destabilize the global financial system unless the US economy deteriorates significantly.13 – Africa's growth will surpass Asia's, but not significantly. According to the IMF, as China slows its growth, the pace in Asia could fall to 4.1% in 2026. Africa, which has a lower base, will grow by a little more than 4.1%. Next year, half of the 20 fastest-growing economies in the world will be African.Read alsoJuntas for Moscow, democrats for Kyiv. How Ukraine competes for influence in Africa14 – The price of gold will exceed $5,000 per ounce (31.1 grams). The rapid growth of gold will continue, albeit at a more measured pace. In a world where uncertainty has become the norm and the dollar's role as a reserve currency is being undermined, gold's growth will persist.15 – Tesla will not bounce back after its market share declines in the US, EU, and China. Sales in the US are falling due to the expiration of tax incentives for electric vehicles. Trump is loosening regulations to reduce emissions from cars. And Chinese competitors will release even more new models with attractive prices.Technology – the AI bubble and home robots16 – The AI bubble will burst. Easy money in trading and investing with AI is a thing of the past.17 – There will be homework. In October, the US startup 1X began accepting pre-orders for Neo, a humanoid robot priced at $20,000. AI is bringing assistant robots from the virtual world into the real one. Companies like Tesla, Figure AI, and Unitree are competing to create models that will perform household chores.18 – There will be no reliable, commercially viable quantum computer. But everything is leading to its creation.19 – A song generated entirely by AI will not top the charts. This year, an AI song reached number one on a little-known country chart in the US – a harbinger of movement in this direction. But AI songs will not be at the top of the main charts yet.20 – A woman will not be among the top 50 highest-paid athletes. Despite the rapid growth, women's fees in sports are still significantly lower than men's.Read alsoYou might get digital colleagues: what top managers of Ukrainian IT expect from 2026

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