A blow to the Kremlin. How Maduro's arrest is changing the oil market and the political map of the world

Arrest Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and possible US control over with oil countries can become a lever for the United States to collapse world prices for black gold, which has already happened the market expects. In addition, Maduro's arrest – strike ...in terms of the Kremlin's prestige.We explain whether this can really weaken Russia and how it will happen.Step One: Impact on the Oil MarketEvents in Venezuela, which has the world's largest proven oil reserves, could change the rules of the game in the global energy market. Although production there currently does not match its potential, the prospects dictate expectations, explains LIGA.net Oleksandr Sirenko, an analyst at the NaftoRynok consulting company.If Donald Trump's predictions come true, and the US establishes control over Venezuela's economy, there will be a significant drop in oil prices, he says.A similar situation occurred during Trump's previous term, when oil prices were successfully brought down. This time, experts predict that the price of Brent crude could fall below the psychological mark of $50/barrel. Currently, it is stuck in the $60–61 range as the market interprets the news.Geopolitical risks are included in the price of Brent, which without them would have already fallen to $50-55/barrel due to a record surplus of supply on the market in the first half of 2026, explains LIGA.net Borys Dodonov, Head of the Center for Energy and Climate Research at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).The potential loss of Venezuelan oil, with exports of 0.7 million barrels per day, is largely factored into the current price. A temporary loss of Venezuelan oil will not significantly impact the market's oversupply.Changes in the supply of shadow fleet tankers used by Russia, Venezuela, and Iran for oil exports can only be expected after a change in the current regime in Venezuela, suggests a KSE expert. The need for its use will disappear, and Venezuelan oil will be exported by the legal "white" fleet.However, the core of Venezuela's shadow fleet consists of VLCC tankers, which are four times larger in volume than the tankers loaded in Russian ports, he clarifies. Tankers of this class cannot be loaded in Russian ports due to their deep draft. Russia can only use them for offshore oil transshipment. This significantly increases the cost of delivering oil to the end buyer but allows the origin of the oil to be concealed.For Russia and Kazakhstan, whose budgets are critically dependent on oil exports, the discounted Urals and Kazakh grades, such a price drop will be a challenge. A decrease in Russia's oil revenues is a way to reduce money for the war in Ukraine. For Ukrainians, cheaper gasoline at gas stations may be a pleasant bonus, adds Sirenko.Trump may negotiate for American companies to be allowed into Venezuela's oil fields. This will lead to a decline in oil prices, but not soon. It will take billions of dollars in investment and up to 10 years to restart the industry, he explains. LIGA.net Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network.Regarding concerns about the difficulty of extracting thick Venezuelan oil, Sirenko is optimistic. The US has been setting global energy trends for over 20 years. Thanks to the "shale revolution" and the high efficiency of its companies, they can drill a well in a month where others need half a year. Therefore, technological barriers will not stop the process, he is convinced.If the "Venezuelan case" is implemented, it could lead to the collapse of the Russian economy due to events thousands of kilometers away from it, according to Sirenko.Step Two: "Friendship" with Russia is WorthlessThe US conducted a brilliant special operation to arrest Maduro. However, their strategy seems ill-conceived, according to Samus. They removed the dictator, but his successor, Delcy Rodriguez, took his place – the Chavista regime remained.If Trump cooperates with Maduro's associates, and therefore with drug cartels, with Rodriguez, who immediately after her arrest called the ambassadors of Russia and China, then the actions of the United States may even strengthen the positions of Beijing and Moscow, warns Samus."Perhaps we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg, and the Americans know what the next steps are. But from the outside, it looks chaotic," says Samus.Maduro's arrest showed that everyone in the world should understand that "friendship" with Russia is worthless, that Moscow will never protect any of its "allies," explains LIGA.net Volodymyr Ohryzko, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2007-2009)."This is a humiliation for the Russians. They would have liked to do the same in Kyiv in 2022, but instead they got stuck in a four-year war of attrition, in which they lost over a million lives," says Ogryzko.Putin is unbearably jealous of Trump, recalls former Kremlin speechwriter Abbas Galliamov to the publication Politico. What he promised in Ukraine, Trump did in half an hour in Venezuela.For years, Russia has sought to portray itself as the main force resisting Western hegemony, uniting rogue states against the United States. By attacking Ukraine, Moscow called for countries to rally around it.Allies listened. Iran sold drones. China and India bought oil. Leaders of Latin American and African countries, which are weaker economically and militarily, gave symbolic support – this confirmed the Kremlin's statements that it is not an outcast.But events have shown that Russia will not help. The Armenians were the first to realize this. Moscow did not lift a finger to prevent Baku from seizing Nagorno-Karabakh in the lightning war of 2023.A year later, the Kremlin was just as helpless, watching the collapse of the Syrian regime. Bashar al-Assad.Furthermore, Russia did not help Iran when Israel and the United States bombed its nuclear facilities in 2025.Now, Venezuela. Since 1999, Russia has supplied $20 billion worth of military equipment there through loans and partial control over the country's oil sector. These investments will now go up in smoke.In the past, the Russians managed to save their people. But Maduro in a New York court in a prison uniform is a slap in the face for the Russian Federation.How will these steps affect the war in UkraineA year ago, Trump and his team were saying that they would settle the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, knowing that it was impossible, recalls Samus:"I clearly said back then that these were empty fantasies. The world thought Trump knew something others didn't," he says. "Now the same thing will happen – additional chaos, a weakening of the US, NATO, and Europe with Ukraine."Talks about the annexation of Greenland are destabilizing NATO. Any attempts by the US to establish control over the Danish island would destroy the Alliance, as the Danish Prime Minister has directly stated. This could weaken Europe and create additional risks for Ukraine, strengthening the positions of China and Russia.Ogryzko, on the other hand, believes that Maduro's arrest will not affect the war in Ukraine. Moscow dreams of "exchanging" the right to act in Ukraine in the same way that America acted in Venezuela, but these dreams remain just dreams, because the Russians are unable to overcome Ukrainian resistance, despite their bravado.The US is on a slippery slope from the perspective of international law, Samus concludes. In a world where everyone except Ukraine and the Europeans breaks the rules, life will be bad. "Historical experience proves that if there are no rules, there will be chaos," he summarizes. "This will lead to the collapse of civilization as we know it."Read alsoWhat will 2026 bring for Ukraine and the world – three scenarios. A forecast by Horbulin and Badrak

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