"He acts like an AI algorithm". How Trump used Greenland to tame Europe and Ukraine

While many expected Ukraine to take center stage at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, U.S. President Donald Trump swiftly pivoted the global agenda with a blunt declaration: "We just want this piece of ice."Western analysts view the escalating friction over Greenland through a lens that differs sharply from the perspective in Kyiv. Across Western capitals, the prevailing conviction is that Ukraine itself has become the primary lever in this Arctic tug-of-war. LIGA.net explores the strategic link between the frozen North and the front lines of Eastern Europe.Ось адаптований переклад вашого тексту в стилі західних аналітичних медіа (таких як Politico, The Economist або The Guardian). Текст став більш структурованим, з акцентом на геополітичну термінологію та "сильні" цитати."Don't You See We're Being Distracted?": What the Greenland Crisis is Really HidingThe standoff over Greenland is far from a mere real estate whim; it is strategic "noise" designed to blind the West at a pivotal moment for Ukraine."Can’t you see that Greenland is an artificial threat? We are being distracted from something much larger," warns Steven Everts, Director of the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), in a comment to LIGA.net. He cautions that while headlines may shift by next week, losing focus on the Russo-Ukrainian war now is a "slippery slope."This "smoke screen" is draining the diplomatic energy that should be directed toward pressuring Moscow, explains veteran U.S. diplomat Daniel Fried. During these final weeks of January 2026, Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv were supposed to finalize a new "security architecture" for Ukraine. Instead, Trump’s Greenland ultimatum has pushed those agreements to the brink of collapse."Trump is leaning into escalation – threatening, shouting, and posturing. It’s consuming all of Washington’s intellectual bandwidth," Fried notes.By the morning of January 21, however, Trump’s fury abruptly turned to favor. Posting on Truth Social, he announced that a "productive meeting" with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte had yielded the "framework of a deal." In place of annexation, the conversation has shifted to the "Golden Dome" – a global U.S. missile defense system designed to cover Greenland and the Arctic. The project is set to be overseen by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.Erik Jones, Director of the Robert Schuman Centre (EUI), believes this whiplash from threats to "great friendship" is a hallmark of Trump’s style – one that functions more like an AI algorithm than traditional diplomacy."Trump acts like an AI algorithm: he tests various inputs, monitors the reaction, and if he sees a path to victory, he pivots instantly. He isn't tethered to ideology or past statements. To him, Greenland, Ukraine, and tariffs are simply variables in an equation where the only required output is his personal dominance."In Jones’s view, while Europe attempts to play a strategic game of chess with the U.S. President, Trump is "playing a video game where the rules change every second." Ultimately, the threats of annexation and tariffs were part of a manufactured conflict – designed solely to subvert partners and project an image of Trump outmaneuvering the world.Read alsoEurope vs. Trump. How Davos 2026 became a turning point for the WestThe PURL Initiative and the Leverage Game: Why Ukraine is the TargetWhy did Mark Rutte and European leaders fold so quickly, conceding to the American "Golden Dome" and granting U.S. mineral rights in the Arctic? Part of the answer lies in Ukraine’s critical dependence on the PURL (Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List) initiative.This mechanism allows Europeans to purchase American-made weaponry for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) using their own funds. However, the Greenland crisis has exposed a harsh reality: the money may be European, but the "green light" remains exclusively American.Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank and an expert in defense economics, argues that Trump will exploit any opportunity to pressure Europe through Ukraine, making PURL the perfect instrument of leverage."As long as PURL includes critical systems – especially U.S.-made Patriot missiles – Europe is in a bind," Kirkegaard explains. "To escape this, you would have to make Ukrainian air defense entirely dependent on European-produced systems. In the short term, that is simply unrealistic. Trump knows this and is ready to use it as a cudgel."The U.S. President doesn't need to formally withdraw from NATO to halt deliveries. He only needs to freeze export licenses under ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations). Erik Jones describes Ukraine as a "toy" Trump uses to inflict pain on Europeans. While tariffs are the simplest tool of pressure, the next step could be the formal revocation of security guarantees.Despite the fact that PURL generates massive profits for the U.S. defense industrial base, the President’s unpredictability remains the primary risk, notes Amanda Paul, Senior Analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC). Trump’s transactional approach is more likely to cause strategic delays rather than a total halt in supplies, but even a temporary freeze could have radical consequences for Kyiv.As Trump celebrates his "great deal" and promises to hold off on tariffs, Ukraine is entering its most dangerous zone of turbulence. The €90 billion EU loan for 2026–2027 is critical, but the first tranche is not expected until the second quarter.The delays caused by the "Greenland bargaining" already carry a heavy price. Even if Trump does not cut off supplies entirely, the sheer weight of uncertainty forces the AFU into a "strict austerity mode."If approval from Washington remains sluggish or uncertain, Ukraine will have to weather this "funding gap" at a significantly reduced level of intensity. Currently, European contracts and existing stockpiles are just enough to prevent a total collapse."However, this would potentially require stricter ammunition limits and fewer advanced capabilities," warns Amanda Paul. "This directly aids Russia and will ultimately cost more Ukrainian lives."Ось завершальна частина перекладу для вашого лонгріду. Вона витримана в стилі "Opinion/Analysis" західних медіа, де поєднуються експертні цитати з гострою геополітичною аналітикою.The "Arctic Alarm": Has Europe Finally Woken Up?The Greenland crisis has proven that Donald Trump is prepared to instrumentalize any issue – no matter how far-flung – to achieve his transactional goals. Today it is the Arctic; tomorrow it will be something else. Yet the underlying method remains consistent: using Ukraine as a primary lever of pressure.Greenland was the "final alarm clock." It demonstrated that after a year of attempting to flatter and appease Trump in the vain hope that he would consider European interests, the time for a wake-up call has arrived, says Paul Taylor, Senior Visiting Fellow at the European Policy Centre (EPC).However, the fragmented response from EU leaders suggests that unity remains elusive. While some allies sent minor reconnaissance missions to Greenland in a show of support for Denmark, others remained paralyzed by the threat of trade tariffs.The consensus among analysts like Erik Jones is that Europe’s only path to security is to take full responsibility for Ukraine."When EU enlargement and security strategy become one and the same, the U.S. can play whatever games it wants with Greenland, and it will have a significantly diminished impact on Ukraine," Jones argues. "We must stop being the object of someone else's instrumentalization."While Trump’s Truth Social feed radiates optimism today, for Ukraine, this "peace" is merely a reminder of its vulnerability. "Trump is designed to be unpredictable. Whether he is driven by a Nobel Prize or personal grievances is unknown," Jones concludes. "But Europe can no longer afford to be a hostage to someone’s unpredictable algorithm."This sentiment was echoed with particular force by Sir Niall Ferguson, one of the world’s foremost historians of empire and economics. Speaking at the Davos Ukrainian Breakfast on January 22, 2026, Ferguson delivered a blunt reality check to the gathered elite.He emphasized that nothing – not even the most stirring rhetoric – will change Vladimir Putin’s calculus as effectively as a massive, rapid acceleration of European rearmament."Speeches in Davos won't do it, my friends, no matter how passionate they are," Ferguson warned. "If Ukraine is currently the frontline of European defense, where are the actual European defense forces? Europe must rearm, and it must do so now."Pentagon AI captured Caracas in 30 minutes. Can it conquer Greenland?

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