"The Kremlin is losing control." What Russia's conflict with Azerbaijan means
Moscow and Baku are rapidly approaching open conflict. In Russia, there are murders of Azerbaijani migrant workers and police raids against the diaspora. In Azerbaijan, there are arrests of Russian FSB agents and a crackdown on pro-Russian media.
All this is happening against the backdrop of a large-scale escalation of the situation in Armenia, where authorities announced a "malevolent plan of the criminal oligarchic clergy" to prepare a coup d'état. Earlier, Samvel Karapetyan, a prominent Russian businessman of Armenian origin listed in Forbes (and under sanctions in Ukraine), was arrested in Yerevan. He is accused of publicly calling for the seizure of power.
"The uniqueness of Vladimir Putin lies in the fact that, through his policies, he managed to do the impossible – to be equally despised in Azerbaijan and Armenia," Akper Hasanov, an Azerbaijani analyst, told LIGA.net .
From this LIGA.net article, you will learn:
- Why did Azerbaijan take on Russian agents?
- What does the attempted coup in Armenia have to do with this?
- how the quarrel between Russians and the countries of the South Caucasus will affect Ukraine.
On June 27, in Yekaterinburg, Russian security forces detained more than 50 Azerbaijanis. The detainees were beaten and tortured to force them to sign contracts and go to war against Ukraine. Two people died, and two others were seriously injured.
Azerbaijan demands that those responsible be held accountable.
Russia, however, is behaving as if nothing happened. The foreign ministry of the aggressor country stated that the detentions were carried out as part of a criminal case concerning organized crime and murders committed in 2001, 2010, and 2011.
On June 29, Baku cancelled all cultural events in Azerbaijan planned by Russian state and private institutions. The visit of an Azerbaijani parliamentary delegation to Moscow was also cancelled. The press secretary of the Russian dictator responded that the work of law enforcement agencies should not be a reason for demarches.
On June 30, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Internal Affairs searched the Baku office of the Russian propaganda media outlet Sputnik and detained seven people, reports APA.az. Two of those detained turned out to be employees of the Russian Federal Security Service.
The executive director and the editor-in-chief of the branch have been arrested for four months.
Azerbaijan used the opportunity to purge Russian agents. Gasanov reminds LIGA.net that since Soviet times, KGB officers, and later agents of Russian special services, were disguised as journalists, embassy staff, and cultural center employees.
The raid in Yekaterinburg, which marked the beginning of a new escalation of tensions, is not just another attempt by Russia to "drive non-Russians into the war," Gasanov is convinced.
"Yes, they have a huge shortage of people willing to fight against Ukraine," he states. "Thousands of people from small ethnic groups in the Russian Federation – Buryats, Kalmyks – have already been killed. Now they are recruiting Azerbaijanis, Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Turkmens. They catch migrant workers, fabricate criminal cases, and under the threat of torture, pressure, and blackmail, force them to sign contracts."
However, the key point is Moscow's attempt to put pressure on Azerbaijan so that the country does not pursue an overly independent policy, the analyst continues.
This is a consequence of the imperial attitude towards the countries of the former USSR, which Russia still calls republics. Russians continue to consider others as underdeveloped states and second-rate, says Volodymyr Ogryzko, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2007-2009), to LIGA.net. They speak about Kazakhstan and the countries of Central Asia with the same contempt.
"This is not a Moscow-Baku conflict, but a conflict between the imperial consciousness of Russians and others whom they consider their territory. The tragedy with the murder of Azerbaijanis became the pretext. Baku's reaction is adequate. But Moscow is surprised. They say, why are you worried? Well, a few of your citizens were killed, what's the problem?" – says Ogryzko.
The consequences of the conflict for Baku could be the same as for everyone who wants to pursue a policy independent of the Kremlin – difficult, Ogryzko believes. If Baku's independent line continues to be decisive, then Moscow will do everything to strengthen its influence on the government of President Ilham Aliyev and on Azerbaijani public opinion. If the country recognizes its vassal dependence, then "peace, friendship, and corn, as before, will begin."
However, after the Azerbaijani army finally took control of Karabakh in September 2023, Russia lost its main lever of influence on both Baku and Yerevan, Gasanov believes. The Russians no longer have other tools of pressure in the region.
All oil and gas pipelines bypass Russia. Azerbaijan's main economic partner is the EU, adds Gasanov. The only thing they can do is put pressure on Azerbaijanis in Russia, pushing them out of the Russian Federation. According to the official 2021 census, there are 0.5 million of them there, but the real figures fluctuate between 1 and 2 million.
Azerbaijan has nothing to lose from the cooling of relations with Russia, according to Hasanov.
Unlike Russia. Putin's uniqueness lies in the fact that he managed to do the impossible – to be equally despised in Azerbaijan and Armenia, – he explains. – For example, Russians were also caught and accused of attempting to organize a coup in Armenia. And I fully believe that such an attempt could have been made.
The arrest of Russian agents in Baku is a mirror response to the brutal beating and murder in Yekaterinburg, and to the wave of anti-Azerbaijani sentiment currently sweeping Russia, says Serhiy Danylov, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, to LIGA.net. The arrest of "criminal clergy" in Yerevan is a preemptive strike against those who were planning something against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
"Russia wants to create more problems for the countries of the South Caucasus," the analyst believes. "The Kremlin sees a threat in the fact that the two countries will sign an agreement on Karabakh without Russian moderation and settle their relations without Russia's participation. Then Russia's institutional influence in the South Caucasus will decrease. That's why the Russians are escalating the situation: Moscow is losing influence that it doesn't want to relinquish."
For Ukraine, this is a beneficial development, he adds. Every weakening of Russia is an important factor that will contribute to strengthening Kyiv's position.
Azerbaijan clearly expresses its support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, provides humanitarian aid to Kyiv, and allocates funds (about $40 million, according to the Report), says Gasanov. This support will continue.
But Baku will not support Ukraine with its own weapons – Azerbaijan is also at the epicenter of many conflicts, and it needs weapons itself.
Baku's approach to Russia's aggression against Ukraine will be a "both sides" approach until the very end, Ogryzko summarizes. "President Ilham Aliyev is afraid to engage in open confrontation with Moscow," he believes. "Therefore, he will balance: on the one hand, he will talk about Ukraine's territorial integrity, and on the other, he will ignore what shouldn't be noticed. This is the position not only of Baku, but also of Ankara. Moreover, they work in close coordination."