Mindich-Halushchenko case: the main political detonator of the fall
The Mindich-Galushchenko case promises to be a major domestic political event not only in the fall of 2025, but probably throughout the current year. Moreover, it may become the driving force behind various domestic political conflicts and situations, especially in the event of the end of the war and post-war elections.
It is already clear that the case will be very high-profile. Its main socio-political challenge is to find an acceptable balance between the need for a full investigation of this case with further consideration in court and the preservation of at least relative domestic political stability in the context of a full-scale war (to avoid an uncontrollable political crisis). This is what the government, the opposition, and the NABU should keep in mind in the first place .
The authorities should not interfere with the investigation and start a war against NABU. Otherwise, there will be even more problems. This includes Ukraine's international reputation and our relations with partners. It seems that the President's Office understands this. In any case, President Zelenskyy said in his evening address that he supports the NABU and SAPO investigations into corruption in the energy sector.
Of course, this case is a huge political risk and a time bomb for the president. But now the main challenge for him and the whole country is the war.
There is a great temptation for the opposition to launch a large-scale attack. In peaceful conditions, perhaps, it would have done so. But in the context of a full-scale war with Russia, starting an internal political war is a risk of an acute domestic political crisis that could significantly weaken the state, and in the worst case scenario, lead to a military defeat.
The risk of internal destabilization should be understood by the NABU. In fact, it is in the public interest. There is another problem that the NABU should not forget about: how not to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors. A loud start to a case does not guarantee its successful conclusion.
Let me remind you of the so-called Amber case. Back then, everything also started out stormy and bright: special agent Kateryna, a special operation involving the giving and receiving of bribes, when secret audio and video recordings were used. The FBI was also involved in that case (an FBI officer represented a fictitious foreign company in transactions with Ukrainian MPs).
And it all ended in the collapse of the case in the courts, in part because the methods of collecting information that the court did not recognize as procedurally legal were used.
Given the specifics of our legislation, this case may drag on for years (in particular, given its scale). What is happening now is only the beginning and prelude to a long criminal and political series that will periodically remind us of itself.
One of the upcoming episodes of this series is Galushchenko's political fate. If he receives a suspicion from the NABU, then the question will inevitably arise as to whether he can hold the post of minister, let alone the post of minister of justice. The legal conflict of interest in this case is obvious. But there are also ethical and political contradictions.
The best way to resolve this problem is for Halushchenko to voluntarily resign as Minister of Justice. If not, then the Cabinet of Ministers should suspend Galushchenko from his duties as minister at least for the duration of the investigation. I will be extremely cynical: from a political point of view, this toxic ballast should be thrown off the government's board.
As for Mindich, it looks like he will be hiding abroad. There will be another "refugee" hiding from justice. Not the first, and probably not the last. And this is another legal problem for the future .
In general, this case will be another test for the country, for the relevant government agencies, for politicians, for anti-corruption institutions and procedural legislation, and for society.
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