Why some countries support Ukraine and others do not

Mutual support of countries in need of assistance is the basis of the world order, just as mutual support of citizens in a country is the basis of the national social order. Ukraine, as a victim of aggression, counted on the support of the entire world, but the real situation is somewhat different.

Why do some citizens and their political leaders support Ukraine, while others refuse to support it or limit their support to good wishes?

In 2022, Ukraine appealed to principles and values, but by the end of that year, this argument had exhausted itself. It seems that global politics is based mostly on interests. Therefore, let's talk about 2025, when no one has any illusions about the importance of values .

Why countries support Ukraine?

1. For the sake of their own security. The countries of Eastern, Central and Northern Europe know what Russian aggression is. They realize that if Ukraine falls, the war will come to their land.

2. To preserve the world order based on rules, agreements and alliances. If all this no longer works, if aggression goes unpunished, then there will be more aggression, and many countries will have to shed more blood of their citizens.

3. For the sake of economic interests. Russian aggression undermines the stability of the global economy (grain markets, energy, logistics, etc.). Supporting Ukraine is an investment in the stability of trade routes and markets.

4. For the sake of moral authority and international image. Supporting Ukraine is a way for countries to assert their status as defenders of democracy, human rights and international law. It also increases their weight in global institutions .

5. But there is also a place for idealism. The entire human civilization is built on the archetype of the victory of weak, brave truth over cruel, stupid power. David and Goliath, the Three Hundred Spartans, the rebels against the Galactic Empire in Star Wars or Dune, the Hobbits against Sauron, Harry Potter against Voldemort, etc .

Why countries do not support Ukraine?

1. Because they are poisoned by insecurity. Many citizens believe that this is not their war, that the war will not reach them (Russia will be satisfied with Ukraine and will not go further) or that they can hide from it, while militarization takes money from family budgets. Under these circumstances, some populists use the war theme to mobilize their electorate, making support for Ukraine politically toxic .

2. Dependence on Russia. Some countries are still heavily dependent on Russian energy, markets, or investments. Locked in their own geopolitical context, they fear economic losses more than gains from a Ukrainian victory. They want to maintain business as usual when it is not possible.

3. Because they fear Russia's collapse. Russia's defeat almost certainly means its collapse, and it involves unacceptable risks, such as nuclear proliferation, a massive refugee crisis, religious radicalism, and the rise of China. The trap of Moscow-centrism that Western analysts and politicians have fallen into prevents them from seeing good scenarios leading to sustainable peace and economic benefits.

4. Because Russian money, Russian propaganda, and the mistakes of Russian studios have been at work for many years. There are also political elites who gravitate toward Moscow or feel "traditional sympathy" for it because of shared cultural codes and nostalgia for the Soviet era, but this is often supported by money.

5. Because the anti-colonial narrative does not work. Many countries that were colonies themselves and gained their independence through struggle do not understand that Ukraine is waging an anti-colonial war against an empire that wants to conquer it again. Perhaps this is because Ukrainians are white, because of anti-Western (especially anti-American) sentiment, and because Russia is perceived as the successor to the Soviet Union, which posed as an anti-colonial force, even though it was a brutal colonizer of its own colonies.

To summarize: support for Ukraine is based on a combination of rational pragmatism with moral values and a long-term horizon of political thinking, while the lack of support is due to a short-term horizon of thinking, the desire for the least expensive quick results in domestic politics, as well as fears, dependencies and traditional likes and dislikes that are long outdated and do not reflect international realities.

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