Xi's Benefit. Why there is no new military-political alliance between China and Russia
The summit in China has given rise to a number of almost myths that have been massively replicated by both Western and our media. Let's try to examine these myths (so far).
1. Attitudes toward Putin have warmed sharply. Exactly one year ago, the SCO summit was held in Astana. If you're not too lazy, google what the world and our press wrote then. And you will be surprised how much they had in common.
The only difference from last year's summit was the absence of Indian Prime Minister Modi. But the warming of India-Russia relations began much earlier than Trump imposed his sanctions. For example, in July 2024, Modi visited Moscow, hugged Putin, and called for an end to the war (his visit began less than a day after the nightmarish shelling of Ukraine). The attitude toward Putin in the global South has not changed much. But we keep creating similar myths .
2. A military-political alliance of China-Russia-Iran-India has been formed. Let's divide this myth into two parts. First, there is no such thing as an alliance between India and China, and its likelihood is negligible. As for the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis, is this news? But even here, there is no question of a military-political alliance (at least not now). Neither side wants to (can) fight for the other (China will not fight for Russia, and Russia in Syria showed how it fights for its allies).
We have de facto entered a bipolar world, which we are trying to measure by the Cold War standards. However, the main difference between the current situation and the Cold War is the complete lack of hegemonic willingness to fight for their allies (at most, it is a quick air operation like the US attack on Iran, and even then, Israel did all the "rough" work of clearing air defense).
And the main geopolitical divide between states is not along the line of values, but along the line of "from whom I buy weapons." India can pull a "Turkish trick" and buy S-400s from the Russians. But then, just like the Turks, it will not be able to unpack them.
3. Azerbaijan and Armenia were not invited because of India, and Pakistan was not invited because of the role of the Americans in the Karabakh conflict. The main reason is that China sees the SCO as its geopolitical project. Turkey is becoming too powerful to be strengthened. It is especially important for us to pay attention to this because Ankara is our natural ally against Russia in the Black Sea region.
4. Beijing-Moscow relations have reached a new level. Against the backdrop of US-Russia economic talks, Beijing has embraced the Russians (the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum is now worth nothing to China, and even here the Chinese have received a discount). But Beijing will not continue to sell weapons to Russia.
China does not need Russia to win (nor does Ukraine). China needs a weak Russia. As for Ukraine, China is interested in an independent Ukraine with access to the Black Sea and the ability to trade through this Ukrainian window (especially if we join the EU).
Relations between Russia and China have not yet reached any new level. In Shanghai, Putin got Xi to agree to leave trade relations at the current level and continue to be the buyer of last resort (however, the situation with China's purchases of oil that was supposed to go to India cannot last forever. After all, this is a complete economic trap for Russia).
5. For the first time, Russia, through its chief diplomat Ushakov, has stated that it is ready to create joint Russian-American-Chinese enterprises to develop the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route. This is, of course, unrealistic. If anything, there will be separate Russia-US and Russia-China joint ventures. I have repeatedly said that Putin's task is to mediate between Washington and Beijing. Globally, this is impossible, but locally, by trading by sea, it is quite possible. And Russia is systematically moving towards this .
There are no conclusions, except for one. Ignoring China is incredibly stupid. Peace (freeze, truce) seems to depend on how the US-China negotiations go. But we strongly believe that China will not appear in this formula and will not become the second pole of the world .
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