What kind of world we will live in: key consequences of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East
Key trends that have already manifested themselves in Russia's war against Ukraine and in the Middle East, which will determine global security in the coming decades.
First, a new "axis" of cooperation is emerging: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are deepening their bilateral relations. Some players in the Global South are also getting involved.
This is not a classic military bloc, there is not enough coordination. And Russia is seen by China as a raw material appendage. But everything will depend on the level of arms production and joint exercises. In any case, Russia's war against Ukraine could end if China stops Russia. Conversely, the West lacks quick tools to stop Russia without China.
Secondly, the endurance and resilience of society are becoming the determining factors of war. Ukraine and Israel have proven that the ability to mobilize the population, maintain the energy system, produce their own drones, and wage information warfare are not auxiliary but central elements of national security. Moscow, for its part, is trying to undermine European unity with sabotage and disinformation, increasing the number of attacks on infrastructure in Europe.
Third, technology is fundamentally changing the nature of war. The massive use of UAVs has transformed quantitative changes into qualitative ones: millions of drones every year make armored vehicles' maneuvers virtually impossible, and the Russian fleet in the Black Sea has lost more than 30% of its units to attacks by unmanned systems.
At the same time, AI is already being used to automatically recognize targets and plan strikes, which radically speeds up decision-making on the battlefield. Next up are AI-powered attack drones of various types, from small to large. And AI-powered interceptor drones.
Fourth, war is entering new domains. Space and cyberspace are no longer secondary – more than 10,000 satellites are already changing the balance of power, and the potential for cyberattacks to sabotage critical infrastructure can be as dangerous as a missile strike.
The world is moving towards a situation where it is necessary to be ready to fight two major wars simultaneously.
The conflict in the Taiwan Strait may well tempt the Kremlin to intensify its offensive in the Baltic States, regardless of the war with Ukraine, and coordination between Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang could create a multi-front challenge for NATO and its allies in Asia.
The future of warfare is not about individual campaigns, but about complex clashes where industry, societal resilience, technology, and international alliances will determine not only the winner on the front lines, but also the very architecture of global security.
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