The aggression and criminal war in Ukraine of the Russian Federation (also known as the Russian Empire), destruction of cities and villages, occupation of Ukrainian territories, genocide of the Ukrainian people and the increasing threats to the West, including nuclear treat, put on the agenda not only the complete victory of Ukraine on the battlefield and liberation of occupied territories, but also liquidation of the Russian imperial state and granting of independence to all peoples enslaved by the empire. Western countries helping Ukraine with weapons, money and accepting Ukrainian civilian refugees should consider whether this assistance is sufficient for the victory of Ukraine, as well as look at the fate of the captive peoples in the Russian empire itself, who are experiencing centuries of genocide, destruction and assimilation.
Weakening of the Putin regime opens the way to three main scenarios:
1. The stalinization of Russia: increased repression, the closure of the country and its total transfer to a military footing.
2. The collapse of Russia: the destruction of power, armed clashes, the collapse of the state management system.
3. Involvement of all peoples enslaved by the Russian Empire and their direct participation in the conflict.
The first scenario leads to the continuation of the war in Ukraine, an increase in the number of victims and destruction of infrastructure. It can also involve neighboring countries in its orbit.
The second scenario leads to the danger of uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear weapons and a large-scale refugee crisis. But such a picture, painted and spread in the West by Russian pseudo-liberals, does not quite correspond to reality.
The third scenario that can lead to a relatively peaceful collapse of the Russian empire is the involvement of the captive peoples of the empire in the events in Ukraine and their direct participation in this war. This means that the US, EU and other countries of the free world will support the aspirations of these peoples for freedom and independence, which will certainly give these peoples hope and an incentive to resist the Russian empire.
The first two scenarios could lead to the rise of China, another empire that also poses a threat to the world order. But the third scenario excludes China's participation in the division of Russian territory, since the territories belong to captive peoples. The role and position of the UN and other international organizations is important here, since these peoples are the true owners of their lands.
There is a misunderstanding and a false vision of the danger of this scenario in the United States and Europe, and this position may become an obstacle to full-scale assistance to Ukraine. Conscious steps to prolong the conflict and reduce military, economic and other assistance to Ukraine threaten to continue the war, and the oppressed peoples to lose even those limited signs of federalism and national identity that the Putin regime allows today.
This situation arose due to traditional American and European Moscow-centrism and disbelief in the potential of the oppressed free peoples, in the power of their identity and national leadership. This situation is not new: in 1991, the Ukrainian people faced it, when it was urged to forget about the idea of an independent state. The speech of the President of the United States, just three weeks before the declaration of independence of Ukraine, received the ironic name "Chicken Kyiv".
At the moment we have a completely similar situation. The US and Europe, based on completely outdated narratives, oppose the independence of the captive peoples, fearing that steps in this direction will lead to a collapse scenario.
Today we have a situation very reminiscent of 1917: the empire will fall apart, and the leading countries of the world will do everything possible to preserve it, even if in a more terrible form. Everyone knows how this story ended for the captive peoples of the empire in the twentieth century.
Consequently, today it is impossible to fully rely on the support of the world community in the matter of liberation and the achievement of independence by captive peoples. But this does not mean that we have no way and no hope. There is a way and hope. We can change the minds of the international community if we do it intelligently, persistently and consistently, without stopping our efforts.
We need to convey a few messages to our potential allies:
1. The monolithic nature of the "Russian people" is a myth. The captive peoples have not lost either their identity or their historical memory.
2. In every nation there is a critical mass of people striving for the revival of their nation. There is an underground, there is a diaspora, and all these people are ready to act, but they need allies.
3. Every nation has responsible leaders who understand the threats troubling the world (nuclear weapons, refugees, ethnic cleansing, increased Chinese authoritarianism, Russian revanchism) and are ready to counter these threats.
4. Newly independent states will be guided by the countries of the free world (Europe, USA, Japan, South Korea, etc.), and not by China, Iran or other authoritarian regimes. And it is quite obvious that the newly independent countries will only strengthen the positions of democratic countries in the international community.
But for this, right now it is necessary to organize systematic work to convey these ideas to the political elites in the countries that are potential allies: politicians, think tanks, universities, media, NGOs.
Thus, the need for the West to change the agenda from the previous narrative of preserving the centralized Russian state, essentially an empire, to the independence of the enslaved peoples and helping them, is urgently needed today. Ukraine could, despite the difficult military conditions, more actively and massively attract to its side a resource that has not yet been fully used, namely representatives of non-free non-Russian peoples. Despite the huge Russian propaganda pressure, there are more and more opponents of the Russian empire among them.
Both the Ukrainian people and the non-Russian peoples of the empire are interested in the maximum and effective approach to the final victory over the Russian empire, which is represented in its false incarnation by the Russian Federation. Moreover, the final victory of Ukraine should be understood not only as the return of the territories of Ukraine occupied by the Russian Empire, including Crimea, but also the liquidation of the empire itself in its current state, territorial and other format.
We must understand that the Russian liberal so-called opposition, which is in exile abroad, is categorically against the decolonization, disintegration and denuclearization of Russia. Its desire to maintain a centralized state with nuclear weapons under the façade of democracy clearly shows that the Russian liberal opposition was and remains an imperial project. And it is they who today pose the greatest danger to the independence of the captive peoples of the empire, both in the Western political field and in the Russian empire itself. From the rhetoric of Khodorkovsky, Milov, members of Navalny's team and other Russian pseudo-liberals, we know that such a threat really exists.
The need to resolve the issue of the formation, training and direct participation of national units in the liberation war as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is dictated by time. This would create the backbone of the future armed forces of these peoples, which would subsequently take part in the international peacekeeping forces in establishing and maintaining peace on the territory of the former Russian empire, in the conditions of the formation of new independent states.
The training of the units being created on the territory of Ukraine and Western countries and lobbying in Western countries for the idea of the need to organize and train these national units would change the agenda of Western countries. In fact, the captive peoples will create their own new armed forces that have nothing to do with the Russian empire. Subsequently, these national armed formations would become an obstacle to the bloody scenario that revanchists from the Russian special services may already be preparing to preserve their colonial empire.
This shift in the agenda in Western politics will benefit the entire free democratic world.
Politically, the Russian colonial empire will cease to exist and the threat of nuclear and other war will disappear. Captive peoples will gain freedom and independence and create their own states.
In economic terms, incomes received from trade in energy resources and other resources that belong to captive peoples will allow the national republics and regions to direct them to social and other projects, improving the lives of their peoples.
The newly independent states cannot pose a threat to the world order because they renounce nuclear weapons. Their constitutions will be completely democratic.
Thus, the countries of the free world are acquiring natural allies, partners and friends in the person of the peoples liberated from Russian colonialism.