How long Ukraine can last without any international funding at all
The National Bank has 39 billion foreign currency reserves at its disposal.
The need for the budget in the mode of not even saving, but simply rational spending is $3 billion every month in the form of additional income to the planned income from taxes.
$20 billion in reserves is up to seven months of budgetary coverage of the deficit. Plus, there is emission potential – up to 400 billion hryvnias ($10.9 billion), that is, another 3-4 months of additional financing.
In general, it will be possible to close the year at will and without horrors about the freezing of pensions and social benefits.
Yes, we will have to save every penny.
In Kyiv, for example, now is the season of warming public buildings in wet snow for the development of budget expenditures in December (on December 31, expenditure items will turn into pumpkins, and the beneficiaries will receive nothing).
And so it is repeated from year to year. The process did not stop even during the war.
In the format of rational spending of funds, you will have to go to budget consolidation for the most priority expenses according to a clear ranking:
- defense;
- critical infrastructure;
- pensions and social benefits;
- education, medicine, science;
- the rest, if funds remain.
And, finally, we will have to solve the problem of the national debt: write-off, restructuring, reduction of the coupon rate.
But the most important thing is that the budget will not collapse.
Which does not negate the real problem of 2025 funding.
But I described the scenario of a complete stoppage of foreign aid, and this is 99% likely not to happen.
There is a real risk of losing up to 50% of external support from the average level of 2022-2023.
That is, part of 2025 can be blocked.
The main thing for officials is to keep both hands on the wheel.
