What is the World Order? It is a set of rules of the international normative system created to govern international social relations; a result of creation, not natural evolution in the world.
The term ‘New World Order’ refers to a new period of history, which indicates dramatic changes in world political thought and a balance of power (!) in international relations.
The Final Report of the US Strategic Posture Commission, published last month, is important in defining the New World Order. What is it about? The deterioration of global security has been going on since 2009, and the most likely period for the outbreak of World War III is 2027-2035 (!).
The United States has its own vision of the New World Order, and it naturally involves maintaining global dominance.
Most likely, the following formats are possible in the New World Order:
1. Preserving and strengthening the role of the United States as the world’s policeman with the weakening of the role of its opponents.
This is Joe Biden’s main goal.
This scenario is possible due to a number of factors:
- The weakening of the role of China and its allies due to a major war, economic crisis, or serious internal problems similar to those that led to the collapse of the USSR.
- Or victory in a major war, which is not guaranteed.
2. China's victory and replacement of the US role.
This is possible only if China wins a major war, which is unlikely.
The global financial crisis is more likely to work against China than against the United States, the global dominant power that controls global trade corridors.
3. A US-China partnership where the two players share the world and influence in it.
This is the format voiced by Xi Jinping in his first speech after being appointed to his third term.
Such a partnership could be the result of a major war and parity in it, with no one side being able to win.
Or, such a format will be agreed upon after the stakes have been raised to the level of the First World Nuclear War and the level of emotions close to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
This seems to be China's main tactic.
4. All against all.
Such a scenario can only happen after the Great War, where there will be no winners.
What is the role of Ukraine in the New World Order?
I don't want to upset you, but it is not one with agency.
Ukraine is a pawn in a grand Game of Chess played by others that is yet to have its own Game.
We are an important element in the utilisation of the military potential of Russia, China's main ally.
And, as the report says, Ukraine has already fulfilled its role, inflicting losses on Russia that it will not be able to quickly compensate for.
Our role for the next 10 years may be as follows:
1. A regional ally of the United States to deter Russia and China.
2. A strong professional, trained army ready to intervene promptly in a future military conflict anywhere in the world.
3. A strong defence industry capable of providing both itself and its allies with various defensive and offensive systems to gain strategic advantage in the necessary regions (countries of the former Soviet Union).
4. A school for training a new generation of armies.
Ukraine is the only country that has experience in the wars of the future, where the key elements will be:
- Unmanned systems, drones
- Electronic warfare and anti-electronic warfare systems
- Robotic systems
- Artificial intelligence
- Cyber attack and defence systems
And here the Big West needs a break to reboot its defence industry and its armies.
That is why (one of the key reasons) we have to freeze the military conflict for the next six to nine months (to prepare for a new, larger one).
Based on all of the above, the format of the future New World Order has not yet been determined and depends on many factors, including... Ukraine.