Under favorable economic conditions in the second half of the year, car loan, SME and mortgage rates may return to 2024 levels: they are expected to decline by an average of 1 percentage point to 17-18%.

In the context of economic development and inflation falling to 9% yoy, the National Bank of Ukraine may revise its monetary strategy: it is possible that the regulator will cut the discount rate, the rate on three-month deposit certificates and other monetary instruments by 1-1.5 pp.

The reduction of the key policy rate to 14-14.5% will allow banks to more actively develop various loan programs, primarily loans for small and medium-sized businesses, mortgages and car loans, as the cost of funds raised for loan programs will decrease.

At the same time, the likely decrease in the rate on three-month certificates of deposit to 17.5-18%, which is the basis for the yield of most deposit programs, will affect the yield on hryvnia deposits: rates may decrease by 1-1.5 pp on average..

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In the second half of the year, the situation on the foreign exchange market will develop in line with economic realities. At the same time, no exchange rate forecasts can currently take into account the current military and economic situation in Ukraine and the world, so forecasting exchange rates of major currencies should be treated with some caution.

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