The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has published a new economic forecast for 2025. According to the report, the trade restrictions generated by the new Trump administration will lead to a 0.4% annual increase in global inflation for the first three years. This could lead to a reduction in investment as businesses become less confident about future forecasts.

LIGA.net tells which countries and companies will be most affected by the duties and how it will affect the global economy.

No one wins in a trade war

OECD experts predict that rising prices will reduce consumption, which will hit small and medium-sized businesses. Countries with a large share of exports in their economies may face currency instability, and a decrease in demand for products will lead to a reduction in employment in industry and related sectors.

The global economy is becoming increasingly interconnected, and the new US duties could trigger a chain reaction that would negatively affect both developed and developing countries. At the same time, the new duties will affect not only the US trading partners, but also the US economy itself. <#comment> pagebreak paywall

Which countries suffer the greatest GDP losses from US duties?

According to the OECD, the introduction of 10% tariffs on all non-commodity imports of the United States could cause a 0.27% drop in global GDP over three years.

The United States will suffer the most, Canada and Mexico. The US economy could lose 0.72% of GDP due to rising inflation, lower exports, and retaliatory duties from other countries. Canada will lose 0.64% of GDP due to its dependence on the US market, especially in the export of raw materials and industrial products.

Countries that will experience the largest drop in GDP from the US trade wars (Infographic: Nazariy Prysyazhnyuk / LIGA.net )

For Mexico, the consequences could be even more serious – minus 1.3% of GDP, as a significant part of the auto industry is focused on supplying the United States. China will also suffer, as restrictions on exports of technological and electronic products could lead to a loss of only 0.1% of GDP.

The Eurozone will lose 0.17% due to a drop in exports of cars and industrial goods. Japan is forecast to lose 0.35% of GDP due to a decline in auto and electronics exports.

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India will lose 0.16% as its manufacturing and service sectors are dependent on external demand. In general, OECD countries will lose 0.5% of GDP, which emphasizes the depth of the impact of the new duties on developed economies.

The Impact of US Duties on Global Companies

The trade war will not spared the largest corporations. American companies such as Apple, Boeing, Tesla, Ford, GM, Walmart, and Nike will be threatened by rising costs and falling revenues.

Apple risks losing market share due to its dependence on Chinese manufacturers, which could reduce its revenues by 5-7% in the next three years. Boeing may face a 10-12% reduction in international orders, and automakers such as Ford and GM will lose competitiveness due to an 8-10% rise in component prices.

For retailers such as Walmart and Nike, the consequence will be a 6-9% increase in the cost of imported goods, which will lead to lower margins and higher prices for consumers.