Without victory and without peace: the logic of Russia's protracted war against Ukraine
More and more often, in various private conversations, we have to hear and answer the question: "Why does Muscovy continue to fight?"
Despite the fact that there is likely to be no breakthrough on the front line, despite all the efforts/losses of the Muscovy group and our structural problems.
Attempts to influence Ukraine's home front through attacks and disinformation are not bearing fruit and are likely to continue to do so.
And the informal international coalition supporting Ukraine, although shaken by the change in the US position, has not completely disappeared - on the contrary, partners (Scandinavia, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and France to a lesser extent) are looking for ways to continue to help us.
What is the point in this case for Vladimir Putin to keep trying? It's time to draw a line under this adventure.
Unfortunately, it is futile to count on the Kremlin's rationality. Muscovy will continue to try to implement a comprehensive strategy of exhausting Ukraine by maintaining the intensity of the war at the front, strikes and disinformation in the rear, and actions against our partners - as long as it has the resources to do so.
And if there is not enough, the option of freezing for Moscow is always available.
At the same time, the regime feels quite confident - after the escape of a more liberal minority in 2022 and against the backdrop of a strengthening repressive apparatus.
The idea of freezing will be sold by the Russian propaganda machine to its population - and those who feel uncomfortable will simply be repressed.
