Like a bully showing his bare ass: why provocation in Poland works against Putin

Putin is said to have tested NATO's defenses and found them unprepared.

AND?

If you want to attack someone, you don't test their defense by showing the enemy their weaknesses. You attack. And you are happy that the enemy is not ready.

And what has Putin done now? He made the entire Western press write that NATO is not ready. This will lead to exactly the opposite. To the point where NATO will start preparing .

Because of course, when you don't have a war, you are not ready. Of course, you don't have mobile fire teams and interceptor drones. Because you don't need it. In Ukraine, we have it, because we have drones flying every night. And in a normal situation, the country cannot be ready for this. And when drones fly in every six months, you can shoot them down with Patriots and expensive missiles from airplanes. Because the economic component does not work here. This is not a war of attrition, but a reaction to a rare event .

It's like a crazy snowfall in a big city. It always paralyzes any city in any country in the world. Because no one ever prepares for extremes. But if there is more and more snow, then the readiness grows .

As a result, the air defense system will be strengthened. Money will be spent. There will be political consequences. And NATO countries will now be more prepared for a potential attack.

Could Putin really want to break up NATO so badly? Unless you expected a war to start as a result of ten drones flying into Poland without explosives. But this is nonsense. This cannot be expected in principle. And the best answer here is not to declare war on Russia, but to take quiet actions to strengthen Poland's air defense and give Ukraine more opportunities to strike Russia. And this is most likely what will be done .

Therefore, the reaction to such a blow is quite rational and in line with expectations.

What does this mean? That Putin has no desire to attack NATO and Poland. He is making a provocation. But why would he do that? This is the most interesting question .

Why did he do it now? Is it related to his visit to China? Is Putin still rational? We do not know the answers to all these questions for sure .

It would be especially interesting to find an answer against the backdrop of Putin's continuing war in Ukraine. Because if he simply wants to continue the offensive in Donbas, he needs to do so without attracting the attention of the medics. In order not to strengthen Ukraine's position. But he did the exact opposite .

Perhaps this is an illustration of the long-standing Russian strategy of "de-escalation through escalation." That is, Putin really wants to end the war. Because he is running out of money. But he wants to do it even closer to his own terms. And he is escalating, wanting to scare Trump so that he, fearing the third world war, will put more pressure on Ukraine.

It's hard to say whether this plan will work. Because the position of the Europeans does not allow Trump to put much pressure. But Putin may have such a plan.

Did he achieve what he wanted? Publicly, Russian propaganda is triumphant (it's like a bully who ran to school, showed everyone his ass and ran home, happy that he didn't get punished).

But it seems that everything that has happened is very positive for Ukraine. And this strengthens Europe's desire to support Ukraine. Because no one wants to be right in front of the Russians.

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