"Oreshnik" with propaganda load
The enemy's propaganda is working. Our population still has a misconception about the Russian tactical ballistic missile "Oreshnik", which is currently being tested, as something more threatening and destructive than what Ukraine is currently under attack with.
Therefore, I will comment on the rumors about the Kremlin's alleged "selection of targets for the Oreshnik strike".
Firstly, Oreshnik has separate combat units, so it cannot hit any specific targets in principle. Unless it is in the areas of a large city, such as Kyiv.
And this reveals the goal of the authors of the "news": to scare Ukrainians to compensate for the fright that now reigns in Moscow.
Secondly, the speed of about 10 strokes, which the Oreshnik warheads had when hitting Yuzhmash, is not enough to create the effect of a "kinetic weapon." The destruction will be about the same as with conventional ballistics. Therefore, it is easier to hit with Iskander, which is both more reliable and more accurate.
Thirdly, it is true that the Oreshnik is almost impossible to intercept with our existing air defense systems. But its use will destroy the myth of this missile as a superweapon, which is very beneficial for the Kremlin. During the attack on Yuzhmash, favorable conditions prevailed – there were dense clouds. Therefore, on surveillance cameras, we saw some objects emerging from the low sky in a hot halo and rapidly falling to the ground. It was horrifying, because no one had ever seen anything like this before (except for those who had observed the testing of combat missiles at the test sites) xml.
If you strike again, you won't get the same impressive media effect. And the myth of the superweapon will not be there either.
Fifth, all of my analytical considerations make sense only if this Oreshnik flies. And the aggressor has problems with this. Because they tried to repeat the strike several times, even closing the sky over the training ground, but something went wrong.
To summarize, the likelihood of such a strike is low. But if it happens, the possible destruction and casualties are similar to those that Ukraine has already suffered from previous missile attacks by the sub-empire. But nothing apocalyptic, like the use of nuclear weapons, as the Kremlin Fuhrer hinted, will happen.
However, the real horror is already brewing in Moscow.
In a frenzied attack on the "victory", the Internet and satellite geolocation are shut down, and commercial and other establishments in the center of the capital are closed. Putin is so worried about his skin that a bunch of air defense systems from the European part of Russia have been pulled into Moscow.
If any drones fly away from us or seem to be flying, the Russians will start shooting them down. As a result, their air defense system, which includes gun systems on tall buildings, will destroy more in Moscow than we ever dreamed of.
During Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow Ukraine will not strike it. But it is necessary to do so in other cities or on other dates.
