Why hopes for a "killer" sanctions package from the US are utopian
We have so many hopes that the US will adopt powerful sanctions and impose 500% duties on countries that buy Russian oil that it's strange.
This will never happen. These sanctions can be frightening, yes. But they will never be imposed. Why?
This would mean imposing 500% duties on goods from China and India. Remember what happened when Trump imposed tariffs on the entire world, including penguins? Stock markets went down, and the bond market eventually forced Trump to back down. Trump lost the trade war with China. And he crawled back. And in principle, 150% or 500% duties do not matter. It means stopping trade. And China has already demonstrated to Trump that the United States cannot afford it. So will Trump dare to repeat?
And this was in a situation where Trump really wanted to impose these duties. He couldn't sleep, he was so eager. And now we have a situation where Trump really does not want to impose sanctions on Russia. He really doesn't want to. Why he doesn't want to is a topic for a separate conversation, and maybe even a medical dissertation (or an FBI investigation). But the fact is the fact. He doesn't want to. So if Trump backtracked on the smaller duties he wanted within a month, will he dare to impose the larger duties he doesn't want? This is a rhetorical question. And without Trump's will, nothing will happen.
So these sanctions could be hanging on the wall like a gun. And if the United States dares to put pressure on Russia, if such a miracle happens in Trump's head, if pathetic and weakness become too obvious and it matters, then potential sanctions can be used as a lever of pressure on India. One of the buyers of Russian oil. In parallel with significant diplomatic efforts in this direction. In an attempt to demonstrate to India that it is better to buy from Saudi Arabia, especially since they are significantly increasing their production.
The problem is that after Trump backed down in the trade war when he blinked first, India will no longer believe that this is real. With China, even such talks are impossible, by the way, and China will continue to buy Russian oil. Unfortunately.
Therefore, if Trump's policy suddenly changes, even if they return to imposing sanctions, it will not be these nuclear sanctions that Senator Graham is actively promoting. Although we like them very much .
But does this mean that there is no need for pressure? Does this mean that sanctions are not needed? No, it doesn't. Because the biggest gift that Trump has given to Putin and the Russian economy is that he has given them faith that they can win and that it will all be over soon. He lit the light at the end of the tunnel, gave them this faith and hope. And this is very helpful to the Russian economy, which is already under considerable pressure. Because economics is very often about expectations and psychology.
That is why any new additional sanctions - even weak, even symbolic ones - would be very useful. Because they would hit not oil revenues, but faith. They would take away the hope of Russians and Russian businesses that everything will soon return to the good old days .
But for anything to happen, a miracle has to happen. The miracle is in Trump's head. And the big question is whether we still believe in miracles.. .
