Russia is demonstrating that it is rushing into a new conflict in the post-Soviet space – with Azerbaijan. After a full-scale war against Ukraine, Moscow's influence in the region has weakened so much that even former allies are acting independently. And they are no longer allies. And Azerbaijan has long since left the Kremlin's orbit.

Russia has no economic leverage over Baku – a ban on imports of fruits and vegetables will hit the Russian market itself, and there are simply no military resources to threaten.

In addition, Ilham Aliyev has a partner in the form of Turkey behind him.

To spoil relations with Ankara is suicide for the Kremlin.

See also
The collapse of the USSR continued in the Caucasus: Azerbaijan and Armenia emerge from Moscow's shadow

Z-bloggers and pro-war Russian "experts" are once again stirring up hysteria: they demand that Baku be hit with the Oreshnik, or call for a blockade of Azerbaijan. But this only demonstrates the weakness of Moscow, which is bogged down in Ukraine, has lost Armenia and Central Asia, influence in the Middle East, and is increasingly at risk of losing the Caucasus altogether.

Today, Russia is not even capable of hybrid pressure without harming itself. Azerbaijan is not dependent on Russian gas, and attacking the oil industry means leaving traces and having an enemy not only in Baku but also in Ankara.

While Putin is playing a new imperial game, food prices in Russia will go even higher. And there are no forces on the second front and will not be.

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