The likelihood of peace has diminished to its lowest point following Putin's speech today. Here's why.

Putin sent Trump packing. Now the main thing is that Trump doesn't blame Ukraine for this.

Putin's hotline revealed two things: Putin is very concerned about social issues (meaning the economy is really cracking) and he is not going to negotiate.

Putin's appeal to his own summer ultimatum once again brings us back to the demands for Ukraine's withdrawal not only from Donbas but also from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. As soon as it became clear that some formula could be found on the Donbas issue, Putin, like the old woman from the fairy tale about the golden fish, wanted more.

Unfortunately, there is no logic here. The current conditions offered by Trump are simply ideal for Putin. But he wants more. He doesn't want to end the war without being promised a triumphant return to the world elite. And that won't happen tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow.

Unfortunately, Trump simply has no real leverage over Russia. And disrupting the current stage of negotiations will lead to nothing. The main thing is that we are not blamed for it.

I have been saying for a long time that the key to a freeze is in China's hands. But we are not having a real and substantive dialogue with them. Kyslytsia's current visit is not about an independent dialogue. It is a dialogue mediated by the US (before meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Kyslytsia had a fruitful meeting with the US ambassador).

Such a format is possible, and it might even yield results. But we are not the subjects here. We are critically dependent on the US-China negotiations.

Unfortunately, if anyone believed in peace before the New Year, they must honestly admit to themselves that the likelihood of this peace has diminished to the maximum after today's speech by Putin.

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